Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners.
Due to the lack of preparation time and shortened 2020 season, the Seattle Mariners used a six-man starting rotation. Should the Mariners continue to use a six-man rotation in 2021? Traditionalists would say no thank you. Some of them would harken back to the days of old where a four-man rotation.
Most of us don’t remember those days. We do remember the days of Randy Johnson, where he had six Seattle seasons where he threw five complete games or more. Since then, the game has changed to protect MLB teams’ investment in their pitcher’s arms.
Now managers use pitch counts, innings caps, quick triggers to assuage potentially injury concerns. There are stats about everything. Those statistics, though, lead to the questions I’ve seen on social media lately.
When it comes to the Mariners, most of the answers are wrong. Here are some better answers. (Note: These are the opinions of the author of this article and not the views of Mariners management)
The M’s have so many starting pitchers. Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen, Justin Dunn, Nick Margevicius, LJay Newsome, Juan Then, Logan Gilbert, Emmerson Hancock, and George Kirby. There are also converted starters working out of the bullpen like Kendall Graveman.
While this is a decent answer to the question, and Seattle has plenty of starting pitching, it’s not the right one.
It’s a quicker way to get the Seattle Mariners starting pitcher prospects more development at higher levels. Again, a decent answer for getting Gilbert to the Majors and Kirby and Hancock up to Tacoma with Newsome and Then, presumably. This idea also misses the mark by enough of a margin to not equate.
In 2020, the Seattle Mariners were seventh in MLB with 5.1 innings pitched per start. When a team increases their starter pitcher’s innings on average, they can better manage the bullpen.
The Indians led the league at 5.8 innings per start last year. That’s where the Mariners need to be. Another benefit to a six-man rotation is that it erases the need for bullpen starts. That means a team can run with an eight-man bullpen and be effective.
The six best pitchers, in order from best to worst. This answer isn’t entirely incorrect, but it’s close. This approach works for a video game for sure, but in real life, not so much. Players can be streaky; one of the best ways to enhance that streakiness is to put similar pitchers against the same line-up back-to-back.
This thought process is inaccurate for the time being. Seattle has some stud pitchers on the farm, and they will be up soon enough. But when there is a lot of depth, it’s essential to use that depth wisely.
After Marco, it’s a crapshoot.
First, it’s important to recognize that Marco Gonzales had a great season last year, but he is not a true number one starter. In fact, his best spot in the rotation is second or third. That’s how Gonzales can compile more wins, by going up against other team’s second through fourth starters. Second, if any team leaves its rotation up to chance or a crapshoot, they’re most definitely doing it wrong.
The Mariners rotation should be built with the ripple effects in mind and the impact it has on the bullpen. Start with a goal. It should be the 5.8 innings per start that Cleveland had last year.
Ace: 6.6 innings on average. Marco was closest at 6.3.
2nd: 6.3 innings on average. Sheffield was next closest at 5.5
3rd: 6.1 innings on average. Kikuchi was next at 5.3
4th: 5.8 innings on average. Gilbert averaged 5.5 innings in the minors in 2019
5th: 5.5 innings on average. Flexen was over 6.0 innings per start in Korea in 2020.
6th: 5.0 innings on average. Dunn and Margevicius didn’t reach 5.0 innings per start in 2020.
Gonzales, Sheffield, Kikuchi, Gilbert, Dunn, and Margevicius – from A. Denton, via social media.
This doesn’t work because Flexen is going to be part of the rotation. His contract nearly demands it (He’ll be the M’s second-highest-paid starting pitcher).
Gilbert, Hancock, Marco, Kirby, Sheffield, Kikuchi – from G. Simpson, via social media.
This doesn’t look terrible, and eventually, the Seattle Mariners will ultimately have something like this, but not exactly like this. There isn’t a lot of strategy or thought process built into this rotation, and Gilbert and Hancock will only be one and two if they are both absolutely dominant.
The team needs to be strategic about arms, arm angle, velocity, etc. If the Mariners ace in 2021 is Marco, then number two shouldn’t be Sheffield or Kikuchi, even if it appears that they’ve earned it. Here’s how the rotation can look when strategic ripple effects are applied.
Gonzalez is the best option manager Scott Servais has right now. He’s effective and gets into the seventh inning with regularity. In the games he started, Seattle’s bullpen averaged 2.3 appearances.
Sheffield doesn’t work here because there are enough similarities in arm strength and arm angle that it will be like feeding Sheffield to a bunch of hungry sharks. If Gilbert makes the team out of camp, this is is his ideal slot. If not, then the M’s can use Dunn or Margevicius as a placeholder until he’s ready.
The future outlook for Sheffield and the Mariners would actually slot him fourth and fifth. He should stay in this slot unless he can justify that he’s better than Gonzales.
This is only based on any chance that his groundball rate improvement in Korea is translatable to the Major Leagues. He’s right-handed as well, and putting Kikuchi next to Sheffield isn’t a good idea.
Kikuchi would be the highest-paid fifth starter in the Big Leagues. But he has done nothing to earn better exposure than this slot.
The import from Japan could be the M’s number two behind Gonzales if he were more effective. While Kikuchi’s numbers improved from 2019 to 2020, it’s more of a reflection of how terrible his 2019 was.
Dunn’s arsenal of pitches seems better suited for a future in the bullpen. Gilbert’s arrival this season and possibly Kirby and/or Hancock later in the season or next season means that both Dunn and Marjevicious’ days in the starting rotation are numbered. That’s a good thing too.
The Seattle Mariners will only have a few instances throughout the season where the numbers line-up against other teams. The Mariners may start 0-6 based on how they match-up. But the second time through the rotation, they could go 4-2 (#1 vs. #2, #2 vs. #3, and so on).
If they sneak a win or two the first time around, then the second pass puts them in a winner’s situation. Momentum is very important to baseball. Building momentum and stealing wins based on rotational match-ups is vital to success.
To ensure that Servais and the Mariners are in the best possible scenario for success, it’s imperative that they get their innings per start among the top teams in MLB. It’s incredible to think that the M’s were seventh, yet they were near the bottom for Earned Run Average (ERA) in the league. Seattle tied for third with most starters that threw 80-100 pitches per outing. For more perspective, the World Series Champion Dodgers didn’t have a starter clear100 pitches during the regular season in 2020.
For this strategy to truly work, the bullpen must stay fresh. Mariners starters have to be effective, and the innings per start must improve from the top to the bottom of the rotation. Keeping a rested bullpen, especially with what Jerry Dipoto did to acquire talent to fill gaps, will go a long way to earning more wins than losses.
Joe Swenson is a lifelong Seattle Sports fan, award-winning playwright, author, director, producer for Broken Arts Entertainment. www.brokenartsentertainment.com