Seattle Mariners: Six-man rotation will get the M’s to the playoffs sooner than later
Joe Swenson
|
#2. How will the six-man rotation be set?
Answer 1
The six best pitchers, in order from best to worst. This answer isn’t entirely incorrect, but it’s close. This approach works for a video game for sure, but in real life, not so much. Players can be streaky; one of the best ways to enhance that streakiness is to put similar pitchers against the same line-up back-to-back.
This thought process is inaccurate for the time being. Seattle has some stud pitchers on the farm, and they will be up soon enough. But when there is a lot of depth, it’s essential to use that depth wisely.
Answer 2
After Marco, it’s a crapshoot.
First, it’s important to recognize that Marco Gonzales had a great season last year, but he is not a true number one starter. In fact, his best spot in the rotation is second or third. That’s how Gonzales can compile more wins, by going up against other team’s second through fourth starters. Second, if any team leaves its rotation up to chance or a crapshoot, they’re most definitely doing it wrong.
Answer 3
The Mariners rotation should be built with the ripple effects in mind and the impact it has on the bullpen. Start with a goal. It should be the 5.8 innings per start that Cleveland had last year.
Ace: 6.6 innings on average. Marco was closest at 6.3.
2nd: 6.3 innings on average. Sheffield was next closest at 5.5
3rd: 6.1 innings on average. Kikuchi was next at 5.3
4th: 5.8 innings on average. Gilbert averaged 5.5 innings in the minors in 2019
5th: 5.5 innings on average. Flexen was over 6.0 innings per start in Korea in 2020.
6th: 5.0 innings on average. Dunn and Margevicius didn’t reach 5.0 innings per start in 2020.