Seattle Mariners: Six-man rotation will get the M’s to the playoffs sooner than later
Joe Swenson
|
#3. What is the ideal Mariner’s rotation for 2021?
Answer 1
Gonzales, Sheffield, Kikuchi, Gilbert, Dunn, and Margevicius – from A. Denton, via social media.
This doesn’t work because Flexen is going to be part of the rotation. His contract nearly demands it (He’ll be the M’s second-highest-paid starting pitcher).
Answer 2
Gilbert, Hancock, Marco, Kirby, Sheffield, Kikuchi – from G. Simpson, via social media.
This doesn’t look terrible, and eventually, the Seattle Mariners will ultimately have something like this, but not exactly like this. There isn’t a lot of strategy or thought process built into this rotation, and Gilbert and Hancock will only be one and two if they are both absolutely dominant.
Answer 3
The team needs to be strategic about arms, arm angle, velocity, etc. If the Mariners ace in 2021 is Marco, then number two shouldn’t be Sheffield or Kikuchi, even if it appears that they’ve earned it. Here’s how the rotation can look when strategic ripple effects are applied.
Ace: Marco Gonzales (L, off speed)
Gonzalez is the best option manager Scott Servais has right now. He’s effective and gets into the seventh inning with regularity. In the games he started, Seattle’s bullpen averaged 2.3 appearances.
Second: Logan Gilbert (R, high velocity)
Sheffield doesn’t work here because there are enough similarities in arm strength and arm angle that it will be like feeding Sheffield to a bunch of hungry sharks. If Gilbert makes the team out of camp, this is is his ideal slot. If not, then the M’s can use Dunn or Margevicius as a placeholder until he’s ready.
Third: Justus Sheffield (L, same repertoire as Gonzales but slightly higher velocity)
The future outlook for Sheffield and the Mariners would actually slot him fourth and fifth. He should stay in this slot unless he can justify that he’s better than Gonzales.
Fourth: Chris Flexen (R, ground ball pitcher)
This is only based on any chance that his groundball rate improvement in Korea is translatable to the Major Leagues. He’s right-handed as well, and putting Kikuchi next to Sheffield isn’t a good idea.
Fifth: Yusei Kikuchi (L, throws six okay pitches, struggles with the strike zone)
Kikuchi would be the highest-paid fifth starter in the Big Leagues. But he has done nothing to earn better exposure than this slot.
The import from Japan could be the M’s number two behind Gonzales if he were more effective. While Kikuchi’s numbers improved from 2019 to 2020, it’s more of a reflection of how terrible his 2019 was.
Dunn’s arsenal of pitches seems better suited for a future in the bullpen. Gilbert’s arrival this season and possibly Kirby and/or Hancock later in the season or next season means that both Dunn and Marjevicious’ days in the starting rotation are numbered. That’s a good thing too.