Ty France, Seattle Mariners.
2021 is a pivotal year in the development of the Seattle Mariners youth. Scott Servais is responsible for filling out a line-up card nearly every day from April 1st until the end of the season. Putting our team in the best possible position for success requires putting together a line-up that can excel.
There’s a book on the optimal line-up structure for major league baseball, beyond the box score outlines it in a now outdated post from 2009. We’ve taken the liberty to update this to a version designed to create a team batting average of .255 and an OBP of .330 while slugging in the .425 range. Seattle was at .227/.307/.372 in 2020 and ranked in the bottom ten in all three categories.
Ideal Leadoff Hitter: Plus .350 OBP, works counts, has good speed, and great base running awareness.
Mariners 2021 Answer: For now, it’s Dylan Moore and not J.P.Crawford. Moore hit right-handed pitchers better than Crawford. With a .267 average and a .389 OBP. He also displayed some pop and stole 12 bases to Crawford’s 6.
Mariners Future Answer: Jonatan Clase. If his numbers truly work out in any capacity near what he did in the Dominican league in 2019, then the Mariners could very well have one of the best leadoff guys in the league when he reaches the major leagues.
Ideal second hole hitter: Good contact, decent speed, ability to move runners, decent pop. Plus .350 OBP, Plus .400 SLG.
Mariners 2021 Answer: Ty France. His sample-size at the Major League level isn’t huge, but batting over .300 in 141 at-bats between San Diego and Seattle, plus his 2019 AAA statistics (.399 batting average), should put him at the second or third slot.
Mariners Future Answer: While J.P. Crawford is a prototypical second hole batter, especially if he can get his average and on-base numbers up, the answer here is Noelvi Marte. He has some power, some speed, and if he can get his strikeouts down, he can really shine in the two-hole.
Ideal third hitter: In the past, it’s been a team’s best hitter, so we’ll go with it. Looking for a .300 average, .850 OPS.
Mariners 2021 Answer: Jarred Kelenic, if his numbers from AA and what he did last season at the Alternate Site (no official stats) have aided in developing him, this is where he should land. Otherwise, the Mariners do not have anyone on their opening day 2021 expected roster that fits this expectation. Ty France was the closest.
Mariners Future Answer: Jarred Kelenic. Plain and simple, this player has the ceiling of being the best hitter on the team.
Ideal Clean-Up Hitter: Immense power. Nelson Cruz like. .800 OPS, but with 35+ home runs.
Mariners 2021 Answer: No one. Kyle Lewis is the closest. The 2020 AL Rookie of the Year was on pace for a 30 home run season. He’s so streaky, and who knows how that horrible September impacted his overall offensive ability heading into 2021.
Mariners Future Answer: Julio Rodriguez. He has a ton of strikeouts in the minors. Also, he hasn’t shown the raw power we expect from him so far. It’s there; scouts and analysts alike believe that he could be a 40+ home run hitter in the not too distant future. Staying healthy is an excellent place to start.
Ideal Fifth Batter: Good power, protects the clean-up hitter in the line-up. A .750 OPS guy with extra-base ability works well in this spot.
Mariners 2021 Answer: Kyle Seager or Mitch Haniger. Mitch comes off of two injury-plagued years. Kyle Seager is a .750 OPS machine, having done it seven times in his career.
Mariners Future Answer: Cal Raleigh. He has raw power and raw power potential, but with a low batting average and lower graded contact rate (he struck out 47 times in 145 at-bats at AA in 2019). He has tremendous power, though.
Ideal Sixth Batter: A dumbed-down version of a second hole batter. OBP of .350, a plus is to have a .750 OPS but not required. You want to see contact here, someone who can reset your line-up.
Mariners 2021 Answer: Mitch Haniger, Kyle Lewis, Kyle Seager. Any of these three can fit the bill, but it will likely come down to the player that isn’t occupying the fourth or fifth spots in the line-up.
Mariners Future Answer: Zach Deloach. His college and wooden bat league statistics suggest that he’ll be in the .750 OPS range with a higher than normal OBP. He might work his way up to the number two hole, but I like his fit in this spot in the future.
Ideal Seventh Batter: This is where teams start to throw together players that are useful in turning the line-up over and getting pitch-counts up. So anything from a .330 OBP to a .700 OPS can be useful.
Mariners 2021 Answer: Luis Torrens or Tom Murphy. Both of these backstops can fill the responsibility of this slot in the line-up admirably. Torrens had a .873 OPS at his last stop in the minors in 2019. Tom Murphy had the best season of his MLB career in 2019 with a .838 OPS. But both could’ve been flukes, and should they do what they did in 2019, then boom, this part of the line-up will be legit.
Mariners Future Answer: Tyler Keenan. The track record on fourth-round picks isn’t great. In fact, it’s really a crapshoot, but if Tyler Keenan comes even close to his numbers at Mississippi (1.270 OPS his senior year), then he could be a possible Kyle Seager replacement.
Ideal Eighth Batter: Same as seventh, not really looking for something Earth-shattering. Some have called the eighth batter clean-up number two, but that’s not true. The goal is to turn over the line-up, and once again, this is where we get a .330 OBP or .700 OPS-type.
Mariners 2021 Answer: It will have to be Evan White, but he’s a tough one to put here offensively. His .599 OPS was easily the lowest among Mariners starters in 2020. The crazy thing is that he’s shown good plate discipline in the minors, but his 2020 rookie season put him on pace for an astounding 226 strikeouts. That’s not good.
Mariners Future Answer: Also Evan White. It has to be. His defense warrants being on the field to prevent runs. He also needs to produce runs.
Ideal Ninth Batter: Someone with a little more speed and good baserunning ability. Ideally, he’s going to bat .230 or better, play great defense, and will turn the line-up over from time-to-time.
Mariners 2021 Answer: J.P. Crawford. This is where he belongs until that bat catches up. It might not. His minor league numbers would suggest (along with his Major League experience) that he will not be at the top of the Mariners lineup much longer. He did bat .255, but he only got on base at a .336 clip, and he displayed almost no power in the process.
Mariners Future Answer: Once again, J.P. Crawford. This is where he belongs, like it or not. For the immediate future anyway; especially if Dylan Moore ends up in the line-up more often than not.
Joe Swenson is a life-long Seattle Sports fan, writer, director, producer at www.brokenartsentertainment.com