2021 Seattle Mariners line-up card with ideal hitters in each slot
Joe Swenson
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The Seattle Mariners have a talented roster. We have the team’s ideal batting order to maximize that talent.
2021 is a pivotal year in the development of the Seattle Mariners youth. Scott Servais is responsible for filling out a line-up card nearly every day from April 1st until the end of the season. Putting our team in the best possible position for success requires putting together a line-up that can excel.
There’s a book on the optimal line-up structure for major league baseball, beyond the box score outlines it in a now outdated post from 2009. We’ve taken the liberty to update this to a version designed to create a team batting average of .255 and an OBP of .330 while slugging in the .425 range. Seattle was at .227/.307/.372 in 2020 and ranked in the bottom ten in all three categories.
Leadoff Hitter
Ideal Leadoff Hitter: Plus .350 OBP, works counts, has good speed, and great base running awareness.
Mariners 2021 Answer: For now, it’s Dylan Moore and not J.P.Crawford. Moore hit right-handed pitchers better than Crawford. With a .267 average and a .389 OBP. He also displayed some pop and stole 12 bases to Crawford’s 6.
Mariners Future Answer: Jonatan Clase. If his numbers truly work out in any capacity near what he did in the Dominican league in 2019, then the Mariners could very well have one of the best leadoff guys in the league when he reaches the major leagues.
The Two Hole
Ideal second hole hitter: Good contact, decent speed, ability to move runners, decent pop. Plus .350 OBP, Plus .400 SLG.
Mariners 2021 Answer: Ty France. His sample-size at the Major League level isn’t huge, but batting over .300 in 141 at-bats between San Diego and Seattle, plus his 2019 AAA statistics (.399 batting average), should put him at the second or third slot.
Mariners Future Answer: While J.P. Crawford is a prototypical second hole batter, especially if he can get his average and on-base numbers up, the answer here is Noelvi Marte. He has some power, some speed, and if he can get his strikeouts down, he can really shine in the two-hole.
Batting Third
Ideal third hitter: In the past, it’s been a team’s best hitter, so we’ll go with it. Looking for a .300 average, .850 OPS.
Mariners 2021 Answer: Jarred Kelenic, if his numbers from AA and what he did last season at the Alternate Site (no official stats) have aided in developing him, this is where he should land. Otherwise, the Mariners do not have anyone on their opening day 2021 expected roster that fits this expectation. Ty France was the closest.
Mariners Future Answer: Jarred Kelenic. Plain and simple, this player has the ceiling of being the best hitter on the team.