Moda Center home of the Portland Trail Blazers (photo by CrispyCream27 via Wikimedia).
So let’s assess the damages and look at the pessimistic and optimistic options for the Portland Trail Blazers‘ situation.
Rumors were floating around that the Portland Trail Blazers considered trading New Orleans’ lottery pick to Detroit for Jerami Grant. Landing the Pistons’ leading scorer would have brought Portland the best forward they’ve had since LaMarcus Aldridge left in 2015.
Portland would have used their lottery pick to shore up the other starting forward position. However, it won’t be until the draft lottery that Portland finds out where their lottery pick will land. As of now, it could jump into the top four after the lottery or slide down to potentially 10th. Unless Portland wins one of the top 4 spots, they are most likely winding up between six and eight.
If the pick landed between 6 and 8, Portland could have combined it with the Pelicans lottery pick to move up. Maybe even as high as the third spot. With a higher pick, Portland’s chances to draft a single high-impact player significantly improve.
Look no further than Portland’s draft lottery luck to find out how rare it is. The number 11 pick in 2012, Meyers Leonard never lived up to his potential and is out of the league. Likewise, Zach Collins, the number ten pick in 2017, couldn’t stay healthy his last few years with the team.
Sebastian Telfair and Jerryd Bayless at 13th and 11th in their respective drafts also fell short of expectations. Martell Webster was the sixth overall pick in 2005. He was drafted to be the team’s long-term answer at shooting guard. Instead, he was traded four years later for the #16 pick, Luke Babbitt. Luke, a player, who drafted two spots outside of the lottery, was another flop.
Let’s not forget Greg Oden and Brandon Roy‘s injuries that put an end to two-thirds of the “big 3”. Along with LaMarcus Aldridge, they were the three lottery draft picks that would turn the Blazers into the next dynasty. For nearly two decades, NBA franchises like the Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves feasted on lottery picks.
There has been only one playoff appearance between them in the last 17 years. Aside from CJ Mccollum, you’d have to go back to the 1980s to find a late lottery Portland pick that was an impact player. Even higher Lottery picks have been a roll of the dice for Portland.
Don’t get me wrong; there is plenty of reason to be upset about losing a second lottery pick. However, unless the Blazers were for sure moving the pick for Jerami Grant or another established player, please don’t assume the pick wouldn’t net them a player to return the team to contender status.
Value only matters for what you can get out of it. The idea for the offseason has been that Portland needs to upgrade the talent at both starting forward positions. Though it holds less potential value than a late lottery pick, the Milwaukee Bucks 2025 first-round pick still has value.
I don’t think Portland has necessarily lost out on Jerami Grant. The Pistons asked for two first-round picks for him at the trade deadline, and nobody met their offer. Grant had more value at the trade deadline. Acquiring him would have aided in two potential playoff runs before his next contract.
If Portland dangles Milwaukee’s 2025 #1 pick, second-round picks, Keon Johnson, etc., are still close to being front runners to acquire Grant. Although it might be a better idea to try and trade with Chicago to get their pick back, thus opening up access to all future Portland picks moving forward.
It’s safe to come out of the bunker; it’s not the end of the world for the franchise. This summer, Portland still likely has the assets to upgrade both forward spots and the bench. In addition, they still have a mid-level lottery pick that could end up in the top four after the lottery.
They have Milwaukee’s 2025 first and an army of second-rounders that they can package together. Eric Bledsoe‘s expiring contract, a 20.8 million trade exception, and a few smaller trade exceptions. If they use the 20.8 million trade exception before free agency starts, they will then have the mid-level exception and bi-annual to work with to fill out the rest of the roster.
More significant roles for bench players like Josh Hart and Nassir Little could lead to increased value if either of them is needed in a trade down the road. I also expect Portland to re-sign Joe Ingles, using his contract in the same way Portland used Rodney Hoods‘ last contract as an asset that can be moved by next season’s trade deadline.
However you look at it, this offseason will see arguably the most flexibility that the Portland Trail Blazers have had in the Damian Lillard era. We now wait and see what the team does with that flexibility.