Washington State Cougars athletics on the outside looking in
As big-time college football continues to consolidate its power, the Washington State Cougars are likely to get left behind.
The game of NCAA musical chairs is about two-thirds over. To this point, the Washington State Cougars had a reserved seat every time the music stopped. Unfortunately, time and the number of chairs are running. Next time the DJ hits pause, WSU will likely be standing.
A simplistic enough analogy. But the truth is that the big-time college football version of Darwinism is likely to leave the Cougs on the outside looking in, sooner rather than later.
It’s too bad because The Washington State Cougars have a loyal and passionate fan base. Not to mention, WSU has been competitive in football and basketball this century. If they were in a top 40 media market, it wouldn’t be a problem. But the Pullman/Spokane market ranks 66th.
Best Case Scenario: Pac-12 lives (for a while)
Even the best-case scenario for Wazzu isn’t sustainable. Without USC and UCLA, the Pac-12 is seriously weakened. Even if the conference kept Oregon and Washington in addition to adding San Diego State and UNLV (two best media markets available), Commissioner George Kliavkov’s bargaining power with the television networks isn’t what it was two months ago.
Even before the high-profile departures, their negotiating position wasn’t that great. A payout of, say 70 percent of what it would have been will sting. For an athletic program running at a deficit, decreased payouts will hurt.
While Oregon and Washington may stay put in the short term, it would be shocking if they are still in the Pac-12 by 2030. At that point, there is no Pac-12 Conference. Then we get to the next step, which won’t make Cougars fans happy.
A half step back
When (not if) UW moves, there is no buddy plan, They aren’t taking Wazzu with them. The Mountain West Conference might not be as sexy as the Pac-12, but it could be a very solid alternative.
If the Big-12 gobbles up Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Washington, and Oregon, look for MWC Commissioner Craig Thompson to get aggressive in adding teams. Aside from the Washington State Cougars and Oregon State Beavers, the MWC would likely add some further south, such as Texas-El Paso and Louisiana Tech, to increase their recruiting footprint.
The Mountain West and American Athletic Conference would be well positioned as the next tier down from the Power 4. They might even collaborate to provide some good television matchups depending on who is playing well.
Here’s the kicker, with Wazzu and OSU on board, Gonzaga becomes a great fit and ups the Mountain West’s basketball cache’.
Again, the payouts will be lower. It will take some creative management from Washington State Athletic Director Pat Chun to make it all work. On the flip side, the Cougars become one of the conference’s football powers. Making lemonade out of lemons.
What makes this whole thing even more difficult is that Washington State athletics doesn’t control their future right now. What they do comes after super conferences cherry-pick the bigger schools. Additionally, there is no “when.” 2030 is the latest time frame for the next conference shakeout, but it could come at any time.
What do you think the future of Washington State Cougars athletics is? Let us know in the comments section below.