Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks.
Yes, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith should be an MVP candidate.
That sentence sounds strange when read aloud. But before the season started, the most optimistic Pacific Northwest Sports writer predicted the Seahawks would have a 6-win season. Most agreed that through the first five weeks, the only winnable game was maybe against Atlanta.
Other online “experts” not only had the Seattle Seahawks finishing last but also making a run at the #1 overall pick in the 2023 Draft. Now it’s possible, with 11 games left in the season, that things change.
In fact, how many times, during his tenure, did Russell Wilson win the MVP through the first 6-8 games of the season only to fall so far off that he didn’t earn any votes?
During the preseason, there were plenty of questions surrounding the quarterback competition between Drew Lock and Geno Smith. It was similar to 2012 when Seattle acquired Matt Flynn and drafted Russell Wilson in the third round.
In other words, why trade for a quarterback and then draft or sign another?
Seemingly, Lock lost his opportunity to earn the Seattle Seahawks starting job when he contracted COVID-19 and missed significant time in camp. But based on Geno’s performance, it seems like there was much more that went into Pete Carroll‘s decision.
After a successful run at West Virginia, Smith was the second quarterback taken in the 2013 NFL Draft, behind EJ Manuel. It was a notoriously light draft for Qbs.
Geno Smith, for the most part, had a first round pedigree but unexpectedly fell to the second round. His rookie year was a combination of bad and not-so-bad.
The New York Jets posted an 8-8 record and missed the playoffs. Smith finished his rookie season with a 66.5 passer rating.
He improved in 2014, and his numbers were better across the board. But NYJ took a step back, going 3-10 in games Geno started.
That ended his run as a QB1. Smith took a backseat for his final two years with the Jets, one season with the Giants, and for most of two seasons with the Seattle Seahawks.
Smith got the call when Wilson went down with an injury in 2021. He put up a 103 passer rating over the 3+ games, he played.
The talent has always been there; as it turns out, the Seattle Seahawks are now the beneficiaries of that talent. While Seattle’s defense continues to work out its kinks and overcome significant injuries, Geno Smith performs at a very high level.
How high? Leading the NFL in completion percentage at 73.5% high. To show how significant that is, Drew Brees holds the record at 74.4%. In addition, Smith has an almost 108 passer rating, which is incredible.
Comparing Russell Wilson to Geno Smith in 2022 is low-hanging fruit and has been done by everyone. But comparing Geno to the best of Russell Wilson is a different story.
Arguably Wilson’s best season was in 2015 when he finished with a league-best 110.1 passer rating. While he had a better passer rating in 2018, RW3 did it with 580 fewer yards passing and was sacked 51 times.
Here’s the pace Smith is on this year (it doesn’t take into account the defenses he’s yet to face). The numbers are nearly identical.
| Categories | Smith 2022 Pacing | Wilson 2015 |
|
GP |
17 |
16 |
|
Comp |
384 |
329 |
|
Att |
522 |
483 |
|
Yards |
4160 |
4024 |
|
TDs |
27 |
34 |
|
INTs |
7 |
8 |
|
Sacks |
39 |
45 |
|
Rushes |
73 |
103 |
|
Yards |
319 |
553 |
|
TDs |
3 |
1 |
Smith is a little better at not getting sacked and could score more rushing. While Wilson threw a few more TDs.
How does Smith compare against the rest of the league, though? Wilson didn’t win the MVP in 2015 and, once again, has never had a single MVP vote.
Then again, there isn’t a “Let Geno Cook” movement, which means that it won’t get in his head. It’s a different mentality from every facet of the world that would interact with the Seahawks #7.
Where there were very low expectations coming into the season, anything Smith does that’s better or on par with his peers will be seen through that perception lens. Also, who doesn’t love the underdog story or the rags-to-riches story, or the “I ain’t write back,” story?
The two front-runners for MVP are 5-1 Josh Allen and 5-2 Patrick Mahomes. Perhaps Justin Herbert enters the conversation and Jalen Hurts, but we’ll focus on the two favorites as their numbers are off the charts.
|
Categories |
Smith |
Allen |
Mahomes |
|
GP |
7 |
6 |
7 |
|
Comp |
158 |
160 |
176 |
|
Att |
215 |
239 |
263 |
|
Yards |
1712 |
1980 |
2159 |
|
Comp % |
73.5 |
66.9 |
65.9 |
| Passer Rating |
107.7 |
109.1 |
109.5 |
|
YPG |
244.6 |
330 |
308.4 |
|
TDs |
11 |
17 |
20 |
|
INTs |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
Sacks |
14 |
9 |
12 |
|
Rushes |
30 |
47 |
21 |
Yards |
132 |
257 |
113 |
TDs |
1 |
2 |
0 |
Obviously, the biggest differences are yards per game and total TDs, but Smith isn’t that far behind. This is a great comparison because there is literally no one else close to these three in the NFL. An argument could be made for Hurts and Lamar Jackson because of the running element, but from a pure passing standpoint, Geno Smith ranks:
QBR (Quarterback Rating): 3rd
Passer Rating: #2
Expected Points Added: 3rd
It’s the last ranking that keeps Smith in the MVP conversation. EPA takes into account all contributions he makes to the team. And Geno Smith is contributing enough to be considered for NFL MVP.
If you’ve read this far, then kudos to you. Geno Smith, if he maintains this pace with regard to Passer Rating and QBR as well as EPA, then he could do something that Russell Wilson never did, earn MVP votes.
Everyone expects both Mahomes and Allen to win games. Their teams are constructed in a way that they have tremendous weapons on offense and great defensive units. Their teams should win.
The other way Smith stays in this conversation is to lead the Seattle Seahawks to the playoffs. If he does that and maintains his current performance level, then Geno Smith deserves MVP consideration.
Joe Swenson is an award-winning international playwright and a Marine Corps veteran.