Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith at the 2023 Pro Bowl in Las Vegas.
Before the 2022 season began, almost everyone wrote off the Seattle Seahawks. At best, they might eke out 5 or 6 wins. Instead, the Seahawks shocked everyone by going 9-8 and reaching the NFL Playoffs. So what now?
The Seahawks brain trust has some decisions to make this offseason. The answers depend on who General Manager John Schneider and Head Coach Pete Carroll think they are.
Are the Seahawks a contender who is a few pieces away from competing for a Super Bowl? Was the 2022 season a mirage that used a last place schedule and good draft to fool themselves into thinking they’re closer to real contention than they are? Where Schneider and Carroll land on those questions dictates what happens next.
According to the 12s on social media, Seattle should:
Those are all interesting ideas, but not very likely to happen. There are more realistic solutions. We have a three-pronged plan for the Seattle Seahawks to build off what they accomplished in 2022.
In Part 1, we cover who should lead the offense.
Geno Smith, the NFL’s 2022 Comeback Player of the Year, is NOT a failed backup who had a lucky season. That is, if throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns in a season is “lucky.”
He’s a former top draft pick who had a rough rookie season, followed by a slightly better one at the tail end of the Rex Ryan era in New York. Ryan wasn’t exactly an offensive guru or big on player development.
After leaving the Jets, Smith found himself out in the wilderness as a backup for the better part of a decade before getting his chance with the Seattle Seahawks. He isn’t a guy who had shot after shot and failed.
A good comparison to Geno Smith’s career is Rich Gannon. The latter’s NFL career started with three mediocre seasons, and then he suffered a serious shoulder injury.
After missing some time, then spending the next four seasons as a backup, Gannon became an above-average starter. While never the best NFL quarterback, his career went to the next level when he signed with Oakland in 1999 at age 34.
Gannon took the Raiders to the playoffs multiple seasons and had a Super Bowl run. If not for the “Tuck Rule” game, he’d have had two.
Smith is two years younger than Gannon was when the latter’s career took off and has far more arm talent. Nothing in this year’s performance casts doubt that he couldn’t have a 4-5 year run as an above-average starter for the Seattle Seahawks.
So what should Smith’s contract look like?
This is where things get interesting for both parties. The 2023 franchise tag should land around $30M for a quarterback, which is probably more than the Seattle Seahawks want to pay him for salary cap purposes.
Also, if Seattle tagged Smith, he would essentially be on a one-year prove-it deal again. And at his age, he would probably prefer more security than that.
Smith also excelled in an offense that he had three years to learn and get comfortable in. There’s a possibility he might not be as effective on another team. So Seahawks GM John Schneider has some leverage in contract negotiations as well.
What makes the most sense is a four-year deal with a smaller cap hit next season and the final year not guaranteed. If Geno continues to perform, his contract can always be extended or restructured, and if not, Seattle can move on without the cap hit killing them long-term.
For his part, Smith would have some financial security. He can let his play determine what happens after year two or three. A recent comparable is Ryan Tannehill‘s first deal with Tennessee which was for four years and just under $30M per season.
What do you think about the Seattle Seahawks re-signing Geno Smith? And what kind of contract is fair for both sides?