Seattle Mariners starting rotation as exhibition season begins
Herb Nightengale
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This week MLB exhibition games begin. Seattle Mariners fans wonder what the six-man starting rotation will look like now that James Paxton is back.
It looks like James Paxton and Marco Gonzales will be at the top of the Seattle Mariners rotation to open the season. They are two of the four lefties Seattle seems to be going with. Justus Sheffield and Yusei Kikuchi will be the other two lefties and Justin Dunn and newcomer Chris Flexen as the righties.
Most likely, Flexen will pitch right after Paxton and Gonzales or whoever starts the opening game. Dunn could pitch between Sheffield and Kikuchi or after them, depending on how the Seattle Mariners’ brass wants to mix things up.
Top of the rotation
Many M’s fans hoped Taijuan Walker would return with, or instead of, Paxton. As it stands, the starting rotation is very lefty-heavy. Walker has been more healthy recently than Paxton, who was injured during his time in New York as well.
As Mariners fans know, Paxton can be electric when he’s healthy. They remember his dominating heater and nasty cutter. It’s been almost three years since he engraved his name into M’s history with a no-hitter against Toronto on May 8, 2018. The big question in 2021 isn’t whether Paxton can pitch; it’s can he stay healthy?
Since Paxton left for the Yankees, Gonzales became the M’s ace. His ability to keep pitch counts down with outstanding control allows him to pitch later into games. He and Big Maple make a nice 1-2 punch.
In the middle
Chris Flexen will come in as the likely, third starter. Not likely because he is the Mariners’ third-best pitcher, but he is a right-hander and will pitch between Paxton or Gonzales and the fourth starter who are lefties.
After two seasons riding the Triple-A to Majors train with the New York Mets, Flexen pitched with the Doosan Bears in Korea last season. He made 21 starts compiling an 8-4 record and a 3.01 ERA with 132 strikeouts against 30 walks in 116 2/3 innings. Dipoto liked what he saw from Flexen’s stint overseas enough to give the 26-year-old a two-year contract.
Justus Sheffield had a good rookie year staying in rotation all season. He made 10 starts with a record of 4-3 and 3.58 ERA. A full season with similar or better stats will help confidence in their rebuilding process.
Back end
This will be an important season for Kikuchi. He will be in his third season with Seattle, with 2022 as an option year. So Kikuchi needs to improve upon the 6-11 record and 5.46 ERA he posted last year. The Japanese import has shown signs of being a major league pitcher. However, he needs to lower his era by at least one run and improve his record for the M’s to pick up his option.
Kikuchi makes $16.5M if Seattle picks up the option. Should they pass, but he renews, the amount drops to $13M. It’s more likely that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto tries to find him a home in another organization.
Justin Dunn didn’t have the same success as Sheffield but did have a 4–1 record. Dunn started ten games as well with an ERA of 4.34, almost a run higher than Sheffield. His trouble is control, as evidenced by his 31 walks in 45.2 innings. If Dunn brings down his walks, then his earn run average should drop as well.
Contenders
When Kendall Graveman went down last season, Nick Margevicius stepped into the rotation. He was serviceable but far from outstanding. For now, Margevicius is the backup plan in case one of the lefties gets hurt.
Logan Gilbert is the Seattle Mariners number three prospect. It’s unlikely he starts the season with Seattle, but Gilbert should be in the show by mid-season. If Gilbert defies the odds and makes the rotation out of camp, Dunn is the odd man out.
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