Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners.
Jarred Kelenic opened 2021 as one of the top prospects in all of baseball (fourth), and the Seattle Mariners‘ top prospect. Unfortunately, once he got his call to the Majors, Kelenic struggled mightily.
In his first 21 games as a Major Leaguer, he batted .096 with 26 strikeouts in 83 at bats (31.3 percent strikeout rate) and while he carried a decent 10 percent walk ratio, it wasn’t enough for him to be an effective bat in the line-up. The poor performance earned a demotion back to Triple-A.
At AAA Tacoma, he hit the cover off of the baseball, though he’s clearly wasn’t the only player to hit well for the Rainiers last season. In both stints with Tacoma, Kelenic proved that he could hit at Triple-A in a manner that would earn promotions to the big leagues. The future star hit .320 in 30 AAA games last season with a 1.016 OPS. The other key stat is that Kelenic struck out only 25 times in 143 plate appearances at the highest levels of Minor League baseball.
What do the Seattle Mariners do with a ballplayer that has all of the tools of a big-league player but none of the results? The answer is they had to keep giving him repetitions. Kelenic needs a constant flow of at bats, especially if his ego is as fragile as it seemed at times in 2021.
The heir-apparent is on his way to the M’s at some point in 2022, and with that comes additional internal competition to be the face of the franchise. Kelenic’s Triple-A numbers demonstrated that he could get there, but the MLB numbers mostly said he wasn’t ready.
Kelenic made two massive adjustments to his batting stance after his return to Tacoma. The first was to stand more upright, and the second was to open up his stance more. Both seemed to work until the inevitable, Major League pitching figured out where his new holes were located.
It’s a never-ending chess match where the best hitters always seem to be a step ahead of the pitchers. For example, Manny Ramirez was notorious for baiting pitchers into making the same pitch twice and getting them off their game plan. He’d flail miserably at a pitch just to get it again.
It is no surprise that Kelenic’s ability to hit a fastball was okay-to-good as the season went on. Even Triple-A hitters can turn on a mid-90s heater, it’s the off-speed stuff that separates Major League hitters from those in the high minors.
The lefty’s ability to hit breaking stuff was not good at any point in 2021. But his ability to hit a change-up was even worse. Kelenic posted a .121 batting average against change-ups and had similar power numbers against breaking stuff.
For Kelenic to be the potential face of the Seattle Mariners franchise he needs to stop getting fooled so often, calm his rhythm, set his head, and maximize the skills he’s worked tirelessly to hone. Most importantly, the young man needs his confidence to be real and not broken easily.
The rookie had a decent, some would say good month, to finish the season. It was timely as well, with the complete deterioration of Abraham Toro‘s performance, the Mariners needed Jarred down the stretch to stay in contention. He finished strong, as his .854 OPS for the month indicates. If his September numbers were applied to a full 162 game season, he would’ve finished with All-Star type numbers. 39 home runs, 78 extra-base hits, 112 RBIs, only 162 strikeouts, but also 67 walks.
September as a whole month was decent, but during the final seven games of the season, he batted .333 with a .541 slugging percentage, .407 on base percentage (.948 OPS), 5 RBIs, and 5 runs scored. Kelenic struck out 5 times (20.8 percent), which was well below his season average of 31.4 percent.
Cautiously optimistic should be in the mind of every Seattle Mariners fan. Optimistic is what team management should see, but they also have to be realistic. Realistically, Jarred Kelenic is young and very inexperienced. The M’s shouldn’t put unrealistic expectations on his potential. That’s even more true because phenom Julio Rodriguez is waiting in the wings and ready to battle him to be the face of the franchise.
Is there enough room for Kelenic to shine and still get face time? Certainly, but the M’s have to be practical about what they expect from him in 20222.
What is his potential? He’s potentially a left-handed Mitch Haniger, and possibly much more. His numbers from September bare that out. Haniger is a borderline All-Star. Having two borderline All-Stars in the outfield with the 2020 American League Rookie of the Year, Kyle Lewis, riding shotgun and J-Rod on the way is a wonderful problem to have. They are the players who can make the Mariners into a powerhouse offensive team, similar to where they were at the turn of the century.
Jarred Kelenic is a baseball player that desperately wants to be successful. His confidence coming into 2021 was infectious. His struggles through his first 235 at bats with the Mariners were heartbreaking and confidence-shattering. Yet, he finished August stronger than any previous month and achieved respectable September numbers to finish the season.
Will he be the All-Star caliber player that his number four ranked prospect status from 2021 would suggest? He could be, he could also be a fringe All-Star, and that’s good enough to continue to build out the nucleus of a young talented team.
He won’t be Julio Rodriguez, though. J-Rod is on a completely different level in nearly all aspects of being a future All-Star. Jarred could still be good, really good. For a team that badly needs offense, Seattle will take good.
Joe Swenson is a self-proclaimed sports junky, award-winning playwright, director, producer, author. Overall, he’s a nice dude that loves statistics and roots for the Mariners to end their playoff drought.