Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners.
Your 2022 Seattle Mariners are in the postseason. The biggest of the M’s droughts is over.
That’s droughts as in plural. The Mariners are the only Major League Baseball franchise yet to appear in the World Series. For Seattle to reach “The Fall Classic,” they will have to face a gauntlet of juggernaut offenses.
To beat down those juggernauts, M’s Manager Scott Servais must rely on one of the best rotations the Mariners have ever had.
First up is the Blue Jays for a best-of-three series in Toronto. In 2022, Seattle is 5-2 against the Jays. The season series began in May when Seattle lost a three-game set in Toronto. Chris Flexen took the loss in Game 1, and Logan Gilbert dropped Game 2, 3-0. Marco Gonzales kept the bats at bay to avoid a sweep with a 5-1 win over Kevin Gausman.
In July, Toronto came to Seattle, and the results were completely different. The Seattle Mariners swept their North of the Border opponents in a 4-game series that began with Gonzales earning a win in the opener.
From there, the M’s bullpen earned wins in Games 2, 3, and 4. This happened in the middle of the 14-game win streak that propelled Seattle into the playoff conversation.
Seattle’s rotation is basically set at this point. It will be Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, and Logan Gilbert (if necessary) to face Toronto. With George Kirby, Chris Flexen, and Gonzales available out of the bullpen if needed.
Toronto will likely counter with Alek Manoah, Ross Stripling, and Kevin Gausman. This is how their rotation is currently set up, and it’s hard to imagine the Jays deviating from this.
Luis Castillo
Castillo faced the Blue Jays once this season, a 2-1 loss on May 20 while with the Reds. In his third start after beginning the season on Cincinnati’s Injured list, he threw six innings and struck out five. That was the first and only time Castillo faced Toronto.
Robbie Ray
In the midst of that 14-game winning streak, Ray faced his former team, which ended up being a no-decision for the lefty-power pitcher. He went six innings, gave up one run, and struck out six. It was a solid outing. In three career starts against Toronto, Ray is 1-1, with a 3.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and has 24 strikeouts in 18 innings.
Logan Gilbert
Should there be a game three, Servais will most likely give the ball to Gilbert to start with Kirby waiting in the wings. Gilbert faced Toronto twice this season. The first time, he went seven innings, gave up three runs, and took the loss. The second time, Gilbert went six innings, gave up four runs, but struck out seven in a no-decision.
Alek Manoah
Alek Manoah only pitched once against the Seattle Mariners. He went 7.1 innings and struck out seven. The M’s scored two off of Toronto’s ace, but that was enough to saddle him with the loss.
His control was lacking that day as he also gave up four walks. This was during a stretch where he lost four of five starts.
Ross Stripling
While Ross Stripling is having one of the best seasons of his career, the Seattle Mariners have done well against him in 2022. Seattle faced the seven-year veteran three times (one start, two relief) and hit .290 with a .837 OPS. In 7.1 innings against the M’s, Stripling has a 3.70 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.
Kevin Gausman
The Gas Man started once against the Mariners, and that was back in May. In that outing, Kevin Gausman was slightly less than stellar, giving up a couple of runs on 7 hits in 5 innings.
Gausman, who was Ray’s replacement in the rotation after the latter signed in Seattle, has had his share of struggles down the stretch. Jays Manager John Schneider will keep Gausman on a short leash with Jose Berrios available in the pen.
Game 1: Castillo vs. Manoah
This game is a tough one and depends on which team’s offense is ready to patiently wait out the other team’s pitcher. The Seattle Mariners have demonstrated being a patient bunch, but their offense has been weak lately. Meanwhile, Toronto’s offense has been flying high of late.
Edge: There is no clear edge here, but if someone needed an answer on this, the Jays would be a slight favorite.
Game 2: Ray vs. Stripling
If the Jays don’t use Berrios as a starter, he’ll likely jump into this game to help. In every start, Ray is typically dominant for all but one of his innings of work.
The key will be to get through that one tough inning without it killing his momentum. Stripling has struggled against patient teams throughout the season.
Edge: The Seattle Mariners have an edge in this one, whether it’s Stripling or Berrios making the start.
Game 3: Gilbert vs. Gausman
Logan has been stronger overall and especially down the stretch in this one. Gausman also struggles against teams that can wait him out and try to jack up the pitch count.
Gilbert is already 30+ total innings and nearly 70 MLB innings above his previous career highs. He shows no signs of letting up.
Edge: Gilbert.
In this scenario, if Seattle wins Game 1, they should have no problem winning Game 2 or 3. Then again, the Mariners have shown that offensively they wilt whenever pressure is applied, so they must avoid a do-or-die scenario.
Joe Swenson is an award-winning, international playwright whose play The Final Out will soon debut professionally.