Seattle Mariners: Robbie Ray vs. ghosts of M’s past sins
Chris Phillips
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Reviewing History
Why this trip down memory lane? Well, we can draw some parallels from the Seattle Mariners’ Robbie Ray signing to other past acquisitions. For example, Ray looks to have figured it out and future success should be following him to Seattle. Just like everyone thought with Bedard.
Another example, is the Seattle Mariners are coming off a year where they greatly overachieved, based on their Pythagorean win total (14 wins over projected). The year before they traded for Lee then disintegrated.
None of this is to say that M’s fans should expect Ray to be the next Bedard and for the Seattle Mariners to finish last in the AL West. As they say in the investment world: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital.
However, there needs to be realistic expectations for the upcoming year. Looking at advanced metrics, Ray got some good fortune to go his way with Toronto in 2021. His ERA was 2.84 while his FIP was 3.69. That’s almost a full run difference. FIP is the measure of a pitcher’s effectiveness at limiting home runs, walks, hit by pitches, and causing strikeouts.
Ray showed in the past that he possesses some great bat missing stuff. Three times in his career, the lefty fireballer struck out over 12 batters per 9 innings pitched. His problem always was the ability to control it. Until last year his low mark for walks per nine innings was 3.5 steadily progressing to its peak in 2020 at 7.8. Last season he posted a 2.4 ratio, by far the lowest of his career.