James Paxton, Seattle Mariners (photo by hj_west, via Flicker).
On Saturday, Seattle Mariners General Manager Jerry Dipoto made a significant statement by signing former team ace James Paxton to a one year, $8.5M+ contract. As of this article’s posting, his physical is still pending, but for all intents and purposes, this is a done deal.
There are three distinct factions of Seattle Mariners fans right now; sentimental, strategic, and a hybrid of both. Based on fans’ immediate reaction on social media, most appear in favor of Paxton joining the team. Let’s dissect this, though.
James “Big Maple” Paxton grew up 142 miles north of T-Mobile Park. During his first six years with the club, he became a cult hero. His Maple Grove rivaled the King’s Court, and fans used a maple leaf to signify each strikeout by the hard-throwing lefty. His laid-back approach with fans, media, and with the game resonated with most Seattle fans.
On May 8, 2018, Paxton etched a spot in Mariners history by throwing a no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays. It took only 99 pitches for “Big Maple” to became the second Canadian-born pitcher to throw a Major League no-hitter. Also, it was the sixth no-hitter in the Mariners’ relatively short history.
The sentimental Mariners fan can see a bit of normalcy in Paxton’s arrival back to the club where he started his career. They are fierce about this too. Right now, the sentimental fan is also in “win-now” mode. Paxton’s signing gives them something else to root for.
Hope is a tricky proposition, but these fans need hope, and Paxton represents everything they have been hoping to see. He’s another arm, one that has been successful (57-33 lifetime record) and is exciting to watch.
For the truly strategic fan, it’s tough to like this acquisition. It’s not about the money or the one-year contract. It’s about the ripple effects. Acquiring James Paxton will force the Mariners to find a new home for Nick Margevicius, one of the likely odd men out.
Paxton joins a Seattle Mariners starting rotation that already features three lefties that are established parts of the 2021 rotation. Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi (have to keep him, he’s the highest-paid starter the Mariners have), and Justus Sheffield (coming off his best season yet). Margevicius is also left-handed, and going into the season with five lefties would be a nightmare.
Seattle also has some right-handers ready for the rotation. One will be winter free agent signee Chris Flexen (his contract basically demands it). The other is likely Justin Dunn who has command issues. Even so, he is likely to start the season in the rotation. This also cracks the door a bit for Logan Gilbert or George Kirby potentially to jump ahead of Dunn. But that means Seattle would destroy Dunn’s value in the process.
The worst-case scenario for the Mariners would be that Paxton is healthy at the trade deadline and performs well. The sentimental fan won’t like this, but the reality is that strategically a healthy Paxton means that the M’s are going to win games until he’s injured. He will be injured, follow the history.
To sum up, that’s seven MLB seasons and eight trips to the Injured List (IL). If Paxton waits until after the trade deadline for his annual injury, then the hopes of ending the post-season drought will be in jeopardy.
Dipoto has a ton of equity built up in the farm system (Ranked #2 by Baseball America). Not all of their prospects will work out. Being at or just above five hundred at the trade deadline could cause Dipoto to make some deals that hurt the team’s long-term trajectory.
There are many other scenarios that the strategic fan is mulling over right now. Still, one that the MLB Network brought up in the Top 100 Prospects show on Saturday, February 13, was that the Mariners are the only AL West team in the top 25, and that should signal a significant shift in the division for 2022 and beyond. Trading away assets towards that effort would be an egregious offense against the rebuild strategy.
The last group, the silent majority of Seattle Mariners fans, want to take a wait-and-see approach to Paxton joining the team. Some have even called for the re-acquisition of Taijuan Walker, which has some merit, especially since the M’s are so lefty-heavy.
This wait-and-see approach isn’t a bad idea for everyone. They look at the sentimental value of adding Paxton and know that when he pitches, he’s dominant and can go fairly deep into games. Also, understanding that Paxton will get injured at some point should mean opportunities for Logan Gilbert and/or George Kirby.
While an injured Paxton has no trade value, a healthy version could. The hybrid fan knows that if Paxton is at or near 100 percent, the Mariners stand a better chance of making the post-season.
In closing, there are plenty of things to like about this signing; there are also ripple effects of the acquisition that should cause concern. The development of the Seattle Mariners stud starting pitchers could have their timeframe pushed back, and when that happens, the rebuilding timeframe can also be delayed.
Keep in mind that the M’s have only been in this rebuild mode for two full seasons. Signing Paxton doesn’t change that conceptually. It certainly doesn’t speed it up. The fans have another favorite to root for until he gets injured. Hopefully, by the time that happens, Gilbert and/or Kirby have shown the organization enough to bring them up.
The Mariners’ six-man rotation affords Paxton an opportunity to stay healthy longer. But again, for many fans, it’s a wait-and-see approach.
Joe Swenson is a Lifelong Seattle sports fan, author, award-winning playwright, director, producer for Broken Arts Entertainment. www.brokenartsentertainment.com