Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners.
157 games played, and the Seattle Mariners playoff hopes are still alive. Who would’ve thought this? They have such a good chance to make the playoffs, but it’s hardly a guarantee. Winning the rest of the games (5) will definitely help, but they will need some help over the next week.
Mathematically, getting to 90 wins helps, 91 more than helps, and 92 should mean, at worst, a one-game playoff against either the Yankees, Blue Jays, or Red Sox. They sit 1.5 games out of the last wild card spot (Red Sox), 2.5 games behind the 2nd wild card spot (Yankees), and 4.5 games behind the Astros, meaning that the Mariners are barely alive for the division.
Tyler Anderson vs. Chris Bassitt – Anderson is pitching on two days’ rest with the idea that he’ll have a short leash and then possibly move to Matt Brash. Brash was promoted from Double-A Arkansas on Friday but has yet to enter an MLB game. He has a 100 MPH fastball and a wipeout slider, and that combination struck out nearly 150 batters in almost 100 innings.
The M’s carry a ten-game win streak against the A’s. This isn’t the must-win game, though. If they were to lose this game, it would be okay. At that point, Seattle would need to win out, but the rotation is set up for that. Using him Tuesday gets Anderson out of the rotation for the Angels, who lit him up on Saturday.
Frankie Montas vs. Logan Gilbert – Gilbert threw well against the Angels but then ran into trouble in the sixth inning. In three games against the A’s he has three no-decisions and nearly a 5 ERA. Montas is slightly worse at 0-1 in 2 starts and a 5.25 ERA. The M’s need to win this game, and Gilbert is likely to have a short leash with an off day on Thursday to rest the bullpen.
The M’s will likely need to sweep (see below to confirm that information) the Angels. We know that Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen will throw this weekend. The bigger question is, who toes the rubber on Friday?
With Tyler Anderson going on Tuesday and taking Yusei Kikuchi’s place, does Servais turn to Kikuchi on extended rest? He pitches significantly better on six or more days rest vs. regular rest. The bigger problem is Kikuchi has been atrocious against the Angels, where he’s had some success against the A’s.
No matter who pitches, the offense needs to keep rolling, and the bullpen needs to be ready to protect any lead from anywhere in the game.
The team Seattle is chasing for the final wild card spot is likely to win more than they lose over their final six games of the season. Boston has the easiest schedule in baseball this week. They play three games vs. the 50-106 Baltimore Orioles and then three against the disappointing 65-92 Washington Nationals.
The Red Sox are likely to benefit either way, with the Yankees and Blue Jays facing off against each other.
Against Baltimore, they are throwing 5-0, sub 3 ERA Chris Sale, 10-9, sub 4 ERA Nathan Eovaldi, and finally 9-7, 4.50 ERA Nick Pivetta. The Orioles are throwing two pitchers who have 7+ ERAs with one combined win and Bruce Zimmerman, who has a 4.50 ERA. Obviously, the Red Sox offense is superior.
It makes you wish the Mariners hadn’t given up those winnable games against the Red Sox a couple of weeks ago.
The Mariners are 2.5 games behind New York, and the Yankees have the toughest schedule of the top contending teams for the wild card spots. The Bronx Bombers play three against Toronto, who the Mariners are 0.5 games behind.
From there, the Yankees face Tampa, who have already clinched the division, for the final three games. It’s not likely that the Rays let up, but the bigger focus for them is on setting their rotation for the first round of the playoffs.
If New York loses two of three from both the Blue Jays and the Rays and the Mariners go 5-0, Seattle can pass them. It’s a scenario where the M’s end up possibly tied with the Blue Jays, but likely ahead of them. If the M’s go 4-1, then they probably end up tied with the Yankees and either the Blue Jays or the Red Sox. Then Seattle goes to a wild set of extended season play-in games before the playoffs can go forward.
The Blue Jays are one game behind the Red Sox and two games behind the Yankees. For Toronto, it’s all or nothing against the Yankees. They either need to be swept or sweep NYY because 2-1 or 1-2 just strings the M’s along and sets up a very stressful weekend.
If the Blue Jays sweep, then they will move into one of the wild card spots and quite possibly the top wild card spot. If they are swept, then they will be out of contention and the M’s focus will be on catching Boston.
The Blue Jays finish the season against the Orioles for three games. That series should see the Jaysgoing 2-1 or 3-0. If the Blue Jays go 6-0 or 5-1, then they are most definitely in the playoffs; 4-2 and it’s going to be close; 3-3, they are likely out.
The wins target for the Mariners has to be 91 wins, that’s going 4-1 or 5-2. The Yankees are two away from that number, the Red Sox are three away, while the Blue Jays are four. It is feasible to think New York goes 2-4 and Toronto finishes 4-2 In that case the Seattle Mariners need to go 4-1 to force a 3-way tie for the final playoff spot. Boston playing 3-3 or worse this week is highly unlikely with their match-ups.
Of course, anything can happen, if the Mariners go 5-0, they should be at least in a tie for a playoff spot. Even that will prove to be tough though, the A’s and the Angels have good offenses and the M’s were just clobbered by the Angels on Saturday 14-1, so it’s hard to see them going undefeated.
Even if Seattle loses tonight, they can still make the playoffs. The Mariners being in contention down to the final week and playing good baseball is completely different than anything M’s fans have experienced since 2001. They’ve had winning seasons, but they’ve also had colossal collapses in September, especially in the Cruz/Cano days. Enjoy the ride.
Hopefully, the Mariners can sustain success into October, but even if they can’t, the ride has been insane and a good one for the future of the Mariners.
Joe Swenson is an author, playwright, screenplay writer, director, producer, and all-around nice dude.