Seattle Mariners: Everyone Loves an Underdog – ALDS Pitching Matchups

Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners celebrate their ALWS series victory over Toronto.

Game #1: Logan Gilbert vs. Justin Verlander

Logan Gilbert has 4 starts against the Astros. The rookie is 2-1 with a .228 batting average against and a 3.67 ERA in 25 IPs.

He could be an X Factor, as @logangilbert22 is likely to pitch twice if the ALDS goes the full five games. In addition, Gilbert takes the hill Tuesday afternoon, pitching on 10 days’ rest. With all the adrenaline flowing through his body, he’ll need to balance his energy with accuracy.

Justin Verlander is one of the best pitchers of the 21st Century. This year he started 6 games against Seattle and went 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 42.1 IPs.

The 5-1 is legit, but the 2.34 ERA is not. He actually gave up 11 runs against the Mariners, including 6 home runs in those 6 games, whereas Gilbert only gave up 1 home run. Then again, it’s hard not to favor the likely 2022 American League Cy Young Award winner.

Advantage: Houston, but not by much.

Game #2: Luis Castillo vs. Framber Valdez

Luis Castillo didn’t face the Astros in 2022. His performance in the first game of the ALWCS was epic. Starting him on Thursday with regular rest is the right call.

While neither team made any official announcements, this is the matchup that makes sense. If the Seattle Mariners win Game 1, M’s Manager Scott Servais could go with Marco Gonzales in this spot, saving Castillo for Saturday’s home game.

Framber Valdez finished the season at 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA. In two games against the M’s, he was 1-0 with a 3.95 ERA, giving up 6 runs in 13.1 innings.

The lefty had an incredible streak of 23 consecutive quality starts snapped after he shut out Detroit on September 12. In fact, he’s been rather human as of late. Over his last 4 starts, Valdez is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and .728 OPS against.

Should Servais start Gonzales in Game 2, all is not lost. He’ll be throwing on 9 days’ rest, and while he’s 1-3 in 4 starts, Gonzalez has been decent against Houston this year with a 3.81 ERA in 26.1 innings.

Advantage: Mariners if it’s Castillo, but it’s an even bet with Gonzales.

Game #3 Robbie Ray vs. Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy or Cristian Javier

Robbie Ray was horrible against the Astros this year, somehow winning a game. But his 10+ ERA in 3 starts was far from the Cy Young pitcher he was in 2021. He’s been susceptible to the long ball this season, and the Astros hit lots of long balls.

The only advantage Ray has is that he’s a lefty, and the two best power hitters on the Astros are Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, both lefties.

Luis Garcia started once against the Seattle Mariners and took a no-decision in 6 innings, giving up just one run. He is on fire as of late, going 4-0 in Sept/Oct with a 1.86 ERA in 5 starts.

It would be easy to overlook Jose Urquidy. Houston likely has him ticketed for bullpen work as he struggled against Seattle this season. ‘

The 27-year-old had a 6.31 ERA and was responsible for a 1-3 record against the young M’s. However, in his final start against Seattle, he earned the win while getting into the seventh inning.

Cristian Javier had a great season, but similar to Urquidy, he struggled against Seattle. He was 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA against the M’s and only threw 10 total innings over two starts.

Advantage: The scale tips slightly to Houston if Ray starts for the M’s.

Next: Page 3 – If Necessary

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