Seattle Mariners celebrate their ALWS series victory over Toronto.
Toronto was heavily favored to beat the Seattle Mariners in the American League Wild Card Series. 13 of 15 baseball experts from the four-letter network picked the Blue Jays to win. 16 of 18 baseball experts from MLB.com also picked the Blue Jays.
Despite what so many witnessed in the Mariners’ historic comeback in the ALWS, heading into the American League Division Series against Houston, the underdog chip couldn’t be more squarely placed on Seattle’s collective shoulders.
Even “fans” chimed in about how impossible it is for the Mariners to beat Houston. And why not? This season the Astros were better than Seattle in every batting and pitching statistic except:
Out of 30 team statistics, 26 of them favored Houston.
The numbers aren’t cherry-picked. In actuality, the Seattle Mariners were statistically very close to the American League West Champs. In fact, since June 21, the Seattle Mariners were 61-31, and the Astros were 63-31.
They’re built virtually the same. Both teams feature strong starting pitching and amazing bullpens with power-hitting offenses that get on base.
While experts will pick Houston because they are looking at the season as a whole, anyone who takes a good look under the hood can see where the Seattle Mariners could have the advantage. And that doesn’t include the momentum Seattle brings with them to the Division Series.
Yes, Houston won the season series 12-7. But keep in mind the last time these teams played each other was on July 31. This is a different Seattle Mariners team from the one that dropped three of four in H-Town at the end of July.
Let’s look at the ALDS pitching matchups.
Logan Gilbert has 4 starts against the Astros. The rookie is 2-1 with a .228 batting average against and a 3.67 ERA in 25 IPs.
He could be an X Factor, as @logangilbert22 is likely to pitch twice if the ALDS goes the full five games. In addition, Gilbert takes the hill Tuesday afternoon, pitching on 10 days’ rest. With all the adrenaline flowing through his body, he’ll need to balance his energy with accuracy.
Justin Verlander is one of the best pitchers of the 21st Century. This year he started 6 games against Seattle and went 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 42.1 IPs.
The 5-1 is legit, but the 2.34 ERA is not. He actually gave up 11 runs against the Mariners, including 6 home runs in those 6 games, whereas Gilbert only gave up 1 home run. Then again, it’s hard not to favor the likely 2022 American League Cy Young Award winner.
Advantage: Houston, but not by much.
Luis Castillo didn’t face the Astros in 2022. His performance in the first game of the ALWCS was epic. Starting him on Thursday with regular rest is the right call.
While neither team made any official announcements, this is the matchup that makes sense. If the Seattle Mariners win Game 1, M’s Manager Scott Servais could go with Marco Gonzales in this spot, saving Castillo for Saturday’s home game.
Framber Valdez finished the season at 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA. In two games against the M’s, he was 1-0 with a 3.95 ERA, giving up 6 runs in 13.1 innings.
The lefty had an incredible streak of 23 consecutive quality starts snapped after he shut out Detroit on September 12. In fact, he’s been rather human as of late. Over his last 4 starts, Valdez is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and .728 OPS against.
Should Servais start Gonzales in Game 2, all is not lost. He’ll be throwing on 9 days’ rest, and while he’s 1-3 in 4 starts, Gonzalez has been decent against Houston this year with a 3.81 ERA in 26.1 innings.
Advantage: Mariners if it’s Castillo, but it’s an even bet with Gonzales.
Robbie Ray was horrible against the Astros this year, somehow winning a game. But his 10+ ERA in 3 starts was far from the Cy Young pitcher he was in 2021. He’s been susceptible to the long ball this season, and the Astros hit lots of long balls.
The only advantage Ray has is that he’s a lefty, and the two best power hitters on the Astros are Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, both lefties.
Luis Garcia started once against the Seattle Mariners and took a no-decision in 6 innings, giving up just one run. He is on fire as of late, going 4-0 in Sept/Oct with a 1.86 ERA in 5 starts.
It would be easy to overlook Jose Urquidy. Houston likely has him ticketed for bullpen work as he struggled against Seattle this season. ‘
The 27-year-old had a 6.31 ERA and was responsible for a 1-3 record against the young M’s. However, in his final start against Seattle, he earned the win while getting into the seventh inning.
Cristian Javier had a great season, but similar to Urquidy, he struggled against Seattle. He was 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA against the M’s and only threw 10 total innings over two starts.
Advantage: The scale tips slightly to Houston if Ray starts for the M’s.
If the series gets to Game 4, then it’s likely that the Seattle Mariners will throw one of the pitchers listed above, not named Logan. It’s the same for Houston, except Verlander could go on short rest. However, Gilbert and Verlander would be available if their team is on the brink of elimination.
Here’s where both teams will likely start their Game 1 starters should it reach this point. But both pitchers will have short leashes.
This is a tough one for the Seattle Mariners to win on the road with their season hanging in the balance. Despite going 7-12 this season against Houston, the Astros would be fools to count them out.
Seattle is playing with a chip on its shoulder. This series against the Astros is a great way to exorcise 20+ years of playoff absence.
In addition, the Astros are the Mariners’ #1 rival at this point. They are the team that stands in the way of not only a trip to the ALCS but also the 2023 season and beyond.
Maybe Texas creeps its way up, and the Angels will always have a special place of hate in Seattle’s collective psyche. But the Astros are different. They have a strong lineup, great starting pitching, and a deep bullpen.
The Seattle Mariners have something else going for them. Tim Kurkjian called it “magic.” Daniel Kramer of MLB.com called it “beauty, resilience or simply unbelievable, the Mariners embodied every bit of it.”
When asked about playing against the AL’s top team, Servais said, “you have to realize that you’re in that moment. How do you flip it the other way?” They can look to last year’s World Champions for inspiration.
In 2021, the Atlanta Braves, who won only 88 regular season games, found postseason magic. Despite being down 0-1 to Milwaukie, they stormed back to win three straight in the NLDS.
Against the overpowered Dodgers, they never lost control and won the NLCS in six games. They took down the Astros in six as well. Hotlanta had “it” on their side.
Often it’s the battle-tested team that carries momentum through the playoffs, and rather than asking the question, “Why not us?” the M’s need to tell themselves, “It will be us.”
Joe Swenson is an internationally award-winning playwright who writes primarily about pain and the human element. His baseball drama, The Final Out, will debut this fall.