TMobile Park, Seattle Mariners (photo by Ian D'Andrea, via Flickr).
To the delight of almost every Seattle Mariners fan, GM Jerry Dipoto made a big trade. Shipping out Justin Dunn, Jake Fraley, Brandon Williamson, and a player to be named later in exchange for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez. If you don’t think this is a good trade for the M’s, then I have to wonder if baseball is the right sport for you?
Before this trade, Dipoto stated in his press conference that the Mariners wanted to acquire a power bat AND a left-handed bat. Suarez certainly fits the power hitter criteria with over 30 home runs in three of the last four years, and in the shortened 60-game 2020 season, he had 15.
Winker’s power has started to shine through the last couple of years. In 2020 he hit 12 home runs, and last year he hit 24. A big difference between these two players at the plate is Winker still provides a good batting average and on base percentage while Suarez is a poor man’s Kyle Seager.
After this trade, it’s probably about 50/50 if the Seattle Mariners will be able to land another big bat-like Nick Castellanos or Trevor Story. With Trader Jerry running the show M’s fans can’t rule out another trade either.
Circling back to Suarez being a poor man’s Seager comparison. The is another way they are different is Suarez led National League third basemen in errors in 2016, 2018, and 2019. The Seattle Mariners are also paying the remaining three years on his contract, which totals $35M. There is also a $15M club option for 2025.
Part of the price in acquiring Winker was the Seattle Mariners also had to take Suarez (and his hefty contract) off of Cincinnati’s hands. If Dipoto wants to upgrade at third base, then he will most likely have to pull off a similar move. This brings us to the now log jam in the outfield.
The Seattle Mariners now have a traffic jam in the outfield. They have six players Winker, Jarred Kelenic, Mitch Haniger, Taylor Trammell, Julio Rodriguez, and Kyle Lewis, for three spots, four if you toss in the DH rotation Dipoto spoke about.
Let’s first throw out some facts. Winker, Haniger, and Lewis will need time at the DH to help keep them healthy. Speaking of Winker, he is a liability in left field per his total zone total fielding runs above average rating of minus nine. As of right now, the projected opening day outfield is, from left to right, Winker, Kelenic, and Haniger.
The hope is that Kelenic can pick up where he left off in 2021. Trammell made the necessary adjustments to hit at the Major League level. And Rodriguez is as good as advertised.
A hypothesis on the JRod situation, if Rodriguez lives up to the hype and doesn’t have a Kelenic type start to his career, then JRod might be the starting centerfielder. Kelenic then goes to left field and Winker to more of a DH role.
The Seattle Mariners might actually have a problem similar to the Dodgers. Too much talent and not enough places to use them. If every player produces as expected, Dipoto has more options to make a trade or two. Specifically, improving the starting rotation.
With the offensive upgrades practically done (there’s still the possibility Dipoto makes another move to help bolster their offense), it’s time to focus on the pitching side. A quick reminder from the Dipoto presser, he said the Seattle Mariners are looking for a front-end or mid-rotation starter, and they’d also be interested in acquiring a pitcher who can operate out of the bullpen and be an opener.
There is currently no front-end starter available in free agency, but there are a bunch of mid-rotation starters available. First, we’ll talk about some of the front-end rotation options brought up in trade rumors, such as Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle. Others could be available via trade, such as John Means and Elieser Hernandez, but there hasn’t been chatter on either.
Since the Seattle Mariners just made a trade with Cincinnati and didn’t get either of the Castillo or Mahle. It’s fair to say these guys are no longer an option for the M’s. Especially since Cincinnati GM Nick Krall said he isn’t trading them. Montas and Manaea are also not likely options as the Athletics might want more from Seattle than they would from other teams since they’re both in the same division. It might be fair to cross their names off the list as well.
That leaves Means or Hernandez might be the next acquired piece. It could also mean another pitcher is in play from another team that we aren’t aware of yet. Dipoto wants another front-line starter, someone on the level of Robbie Ray.
There are still some top offensive free-agents available; Trevor Story, Nick Castellanos, and Carlos Correa, to name a few. Again, if Dipoto adds one of these guys, it likely means he has to trade some more players away. The Seattle Mariners are probably stuck with the newly acquired Suarez.
The only way he’s getting dealt is if the M’s include a top player and/or prospect with him. Just like what Cincinnati did to Seattle.
There is also the fact that if Seattle adds any more position players, they might block some of their top prospects from making the big leagues. It’s fair to say that the M’s will continue to focus their efforts on acquiring a top of the rotation type of pitcher. However, that may not be so easy. Dipoto has the farm system to appease any team’s prospect appetite.
But he shouldn’t just start spending the farm. He’s worked very hard to turn the Seattle Mariners farm system into one of the best in MLB. It would be sad to see their farm system go from the top to the bottom. Dipoto continues to make some very shrewd trades. This roster has a handful of players who can take their game up another level or two!
So Mariner fans, you need to get used to this roster being the roster that will start the 2022 MLB season. The good news is it’s also the roster that will break the playoff drought. Can Opening Day get here already?!