First, let’s explore where the Seattle Mariners were in 2021. The Mariners had just signed James Paxton to take over as the #2 starting pitcher. GM Jerry Dipoto and Scott Servais felt they had enough resources to run a six-man rotation. Originally the rotation was Paxton, Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen, Justus Sheffield, Justin Dunn, Nick Margevicius. However, there was some fluidity in how the fifth and sixth spots would be handled.
How did the 6-man rotation work? Mixed results. Paxton getting injured in his first start didn’t help and forced the Mariners to live with Sheffield’s struggles and Dunn’s inability to get deeper into innings. In addition, Margevicius also got hurt. As the M’s were trying to stretch him out and he struggled.
Marco Gonzales struggled too and also spent time on the injured list. The only pitchers that thrived in the 6-man rotation were Kikuchi and Flexen, but mostly Kikuchi. Post-All-Star break, the Seattle Mariners moved to a five-man rotation Kikuchi fell off a cliff.
The first four in the rotation are set. Free Agent acquisition Robbie Ray will be the #1 starter and the staff ace. He owns a great fastball, but his best pitch is a wipe-out slider. Opponents batted .173 with a meager .321 slugging percentage off of the slider and have a 45.8 percent strikeout rate.
This might not settle well with Seattle Mariners fans not steeped in baseball strategy, but the #2 pitcher shouldn’t be Gonzales; it should be Flexen. A right-handed middling velocity pitcher should go after the hard-throwing lefty. The strategy keeps teams from getting too comfortable with similarly suited pitchers.
Third in the rotation comes Gonzales, who had one of the best second halves of any pitcher in 2021. After the All-Star break, he went 9-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 14 starts. Gio features pinpoint control coupled with soft contact. After the All-Star break, hitters had a .202 BAA, which ranked 4th in the American League.
The final locked-down spot of the rotation goes to Logan Gilbert. The 24-year-old was amazing at times and struggled at others in 2021. However, in the final month of the season, Gilbert really found his groove. He started 6 games, was undefeated, and carried a 2.70 ERA in 33.1 innings.
Using Gilbert fourth in the rotation this season is a true benefit. In a few seasons, he’ll be a top-of-the-rotation starter.
The only likely offering would be Justus Sheffield, although he’s not much of a veteran starter. 2020 was a decent season for the lefty as he went 4-3 in 10 starts with a 3.59 ERA. However, the other three seasons, his Major League performance has been rough at best. Most of his troubles are tied to an inability to throw strikes and a massive reduction in fastball speed. Some of which is based on his shift from a 4-seam to a 2-seam fastball.
Another veteran available for the job is Nick Margevicius, who is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery on his throwing shoulder. Margevicius has been effective as a starter and middle reliever. After he missed most of 2021 due to the shoulder situation, the Seattle Mariners need to see how he performs before giving him a regular turn.
Anthony Misiewicz seems content to remain a middle reliever at this point. However, the M’s could stretch him out, especially if Sheffield or one of the rookies struggle. Erik Swanson came up through the minor leagues as a starter. When he was acquired, Seattle envisioned him as a back-of-the-rotation type starter. But, his effectiveness as a reliever and a spot starter carries more value.
Other than the above three, the Seattle Mariners don’t have any of the other in-house vets to turn to this season.
There are several candidates who could fill the void. Team management could be creative in limiting their rookies’ innings this season. There are two rookies that everyone wants to see; then there are two rookies that might get an opportunity to improve their value over the start of the season. We’ll start with the latter of the two sets.
Levi Stoudt was a third round pick in the 2019 draft. He performed well in 2021 and showed promise once promoted to Arkansas. He’s not on anyone’s top 10 Seattle Mariners prospect list, but it’s not for lack of trying. He was hit pretty hard in the third inning of his first spring training start. Other than that, he performed well. Stoudt’s combined 3.31 ERA was decent, and he has a good K/9 ratio (9.5).
Nothing stands out about him other than his make-up. Similar to Logan Gilbert, nothing seems to get to this kid.
Darren McCaughan was a 12th round pick out of Long Beach State in the 2017 draft. He didn’t amaze at Tacoma last year, but he did pitch over 130 innings between Arkansas, Tacoma, and Seattle. Not a long-term answer for the fifth spot, McCaughan could get into the mix to help limit the innings of the next two starting pitcher options.
Matt Brash made it into the top 50 prospects for 2022 by Baseball America (#45), and in his first full minor league season, he was outstanding. The flamethrower didn’t clear 100 innings but made 19 starts and struck out 142 in 97.1 innings.
He has some control issues, but where he might walk a few, he corrects that with a sub .200 BAA. To date, Brash never pitched above Double-A, but he was lights out in 10 starts for Arkansas, and while someone like McCaughan holds down the fifth spot to start, perhaps Brash comes up at some point to provide a more effective option.
George Kirby is the pitcher that Mariners fans want to see promoted right away. His triple-digit fastball with pinpoint accuracy is high on the list of must-see events at Seattle. The 24-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch above Double-A but was lights out there.
Even more significant than his accuracy is that he doesn’t give up home runs. In 90.2 career minor league innings, Kirby gave up TWO! Then again, he doesn’t give up a lot of hits, to begin with. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff, and the Mariners want to see him in Seattle at some point. That will come, but probably not after a bit of seasoning at Triple-A.
There are always surprises in spring training (less than with instant access and social media), and the 5th starter in this strong rotation could be someone we don’t know yet. He could be a free agent acquisition or a trade.
The Mariners invited 14 pitchers to spring training that weren’t on the 40-man roster. The most intriguing (besides the rookies) is Asher Wojciechowski. He’s started 35 big league games, and while Wojciechowski hasn’t had a lot of success, he has thrown a lot of innings.
The 32-year-old struggled at times, most notably with giving up the long ball. But here he is, and he could be the unknown already in camp that can help out.
Right now, there aren’t many free-agent options available. Most notable among the remaining free agents is Zach Davies. He’s entering his age 30 season and has a plethora of experience. However, his 2021 with the Cubs was atrocious as he led the NL in walks despite only throwing 148 innings.
Back in 2020 with San Diego, he was 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA, which could mean it’s more about the park than the pitcher. He could be the Seattle Mariners’ fifth starter. The longer the season goes on, the more his asking price should drop.
The last piece is a trade. As the new opening day (April 7th) approaches, who is available and what an offer might look like seems to change by the day. Oakland has been very public about shopping Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. Meanwhile, Baltimore has been tight-lipped about John Means but indicated that he might be available as well. Any of these three pitchers would slot in nicely to start the season.
The Seattle Mariners had 15 different pitchers make starts in 2021. No team had less than eight different pitchers start games last season. It’s a safe bet that the M’s will likely exceed 10 again. Hopefully, a majority of the turnover will happen from the fifth spot in the rotation. Then again, should the M’s lock down a fifth starter that works out, maybe they end up with less than 10.
Trying to “choose” or guess who the guy will be that wins the open rotation spot is hard. There are just too many variables at this point in time. All of these guys have a chance. The easy copout is whoever performs the best during spring training will win the spot. I will try my best not to use the easy out.
In my opinion, the Mariners will rotate through the fifth starter spot unless one of the big four gets injured, then the process gets accelerated. Having enough quality starters will be important in 2022 as the Mariners work toward ending their playoff drought.
The first person up would likely be one of the rookies. But not one of the top prospects has pitched above Double-A. Instead, it would be a McCaughan or someone similar within the organization.
Joe Swenson is a lifelong baseball fanatic and Seattle sports fan. He is also an award-winning international playwright. His play “The Final Out” is currently being workshopped with a regional theater in upstate New York as part of the Nazareth University Theater Department.