Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners.
In their 45 year history, the Seattle Mariners have had several aces. Pitchers such as Randy Johnson and Felix Hernandez mowed down opposing hitters. Can Logan Gilbert become the next M’s ace?
The term “ace” is tossed around by fans too easily. In reality, there are only a few true aces in the entire league. It’s a loose definition given to each team’s number one starter. But not all Aces are created equal.
So back to the meaning of staff ace. He is the pitcher who takes the ball every fifth day and, if necessary, on short rest in crucial games. A guy his teammates count on to stop losing streaks. A pitcher with “ice in his veins,” so to speak, who can get out of a jam and gives his team their best chance to win each time he takes the mound.
Let’s look at Gilbert’s 2021 rookie year numbers. On the surface, he made 24 starts (6 quality starts) and posted a 6-5 record over 119.1 innings pitched. He also struck out 128 batters and 28, which works out to 9.7 Ks and 2.7 BBs per nine innings. Not too bad for a rookie, but are they ace numbers?
Not yet. The next logical question is, did Gilbert show flashes of a future Ace in 2021?
His best outing was July 8, a home game vs. the New York Yankees., The kid threw 7 innings of 1-hit ball with 8 strikeouts and no walks. Seattle won 4-0, and that was when Gilbert showed a glimpse of what he can be.
In 2021 Gilbert relied heavily on his 4-seem fastball, which he threw 61.5 percent of the time. This is Majors, and big-league hitters can handle fastballs. To become elite, Gilbert needs a better secondary pitch or two. His slider and changeup are serviceable, with the latter needing more work than the former.
All that means is Gilbert needs to develop his arsenal a little further, and the Seattle Mariners have to give him the room to do so. Remember, this was his rookie season, and it followed a truncated 2020 in which he didn’t get much work in against “live” batters. He also missed time in 2018 as well. So he hasn’t had the typical time frame to build up strength and variety.
Moving forward, if Gilbert stays healthy and makes more than 24 starts, the M’s can pencil him in for improvements. He’ll certainly have more quality starts, strikeouts, and wins.
As for actual improvements as a pitcher, he has the physical tools to throw strikes but needs to learn the art of pitching to Major League hitters. To do that, Gilbert must develop those secondary pitches. That should come with time as he matures and figures out when and where to mix in sliders and changeups with his heater.
He’ll learn how to better set up batters. Once Gilbert takes that step, It wouldn’t be surprising to see his K/9 ratio go from 9.7 to 11+
To begin the 2022 season, Gilbert will slot in behind Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, and Chris Flexen as the M’s fourth starter. But by the end of the season, he will pitch like a quality #2 starter, outclassing other teams 3’s and 4’s.
Gilbert is the first of the M’s next wave of starting pitchers. It won’t be long until prospects like George Kirby, Matt Brash, and/ or Emerson Hancock reach the show. But by then, he’ll have his chance to establish himself at the top of the Mariners rotation. Seattle could also bring in more pitchers from outside the organization as they did with Robbie Ray.
Having the luxury of keeping Gilbert in the middle of the rotation is a good thing. It’s exactly what the Seattle Mariners need from their rotation if they want to end their two-decade-plus playoff drought. Because if someone with his talent isn’t at the top, it means they have a quality starting staff.
Back to the original question, will Logan Gilbert be the Seattle Mariners’ next ace? Until he can develop more than one “plus” pitch, the answer is no. That doesn’t mean Gilbert can’t do it one day. Whether he is or isn’t the Mariners ace, the righty will have a big role in this powerhouse team General manager Jerry Dipoto is building for not only next year but for the next decade.
Do you think Logan Gilbert can be the Seattle Mariners staff ace? Let us know in the comments section below or on social media.