Ty France, Seattle Mariners.
We are nearing the halfway point of the 2021 MLB season and these Seattle Mariners have shown their fans many things. The M’s, up to the halfway point of the season, are young, talented, resilient, streaky, and many other adjectives. But overall, how does this Mariner’s team stack up?
The Mariners have so many injuries in 2021, it’s no wonder their offense got off to a horrid start. On the season the team is batting .215 and is improving. Over the last 28 days they are batting .239, and over the past two weeks, .243. While the offense has gotten better, the Mariners still have a long ways to go. MLB average in 2021 is .238 and .244 over the last two weeks.
Seattle is ranked in the bottom quartile (bottom five teams) in batting average (29th), OBP (30th), and OPS (29th). The M’s rank 24th in Slugging due to being slightly above league average in home runs (87) and doubles (120). Despite these low rankings, they average 4.0 runs per game, which is ranked 21st and approximately 0.5 runs better than their offensive peripherals show them to be.
The biggest reason for that is that the Seattle Mariners are clutch when it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP). In fact, only the Indians are better than the Mariners when it comes to cleaning up the bases with runners on second and/or third base. Seattle has the third-highest average in that department at .270. Some of which is luck as seen by their BABIP (Batting Average Balls In Play), which leads the bigs at .346.
While the batting is improving, what happened over the last month, should the trend continue, will result in more runs scored. In addition, the Mariners are one of the best baserunning teams in the league with an average of 1.37 bases gained per game vs. league average. The combination of RISP and bases gained per game would lead anyone to believe that the Mariners will continue to score runs. Improved hitting to league average over the last two weeks also tells me that the sustainability of scoring runs over the rest of the summer is there as well.
Sustainability in scoring is the most important aspect of the offense and sustaining the effort that happened over the previous two weeks is critical to achieving success. Included in that is the clutch hitting that the Mariners exhibited recently. There are still too many strikeouts and streakiness built into the current roster. Seattle is very susceptible to getting blanked. The good news is this should happen less frequently as Seattle’s young hitters gain more experience.
The Mariners rank on the lower end of mediocre compared to the rest of the league in the major pitching statistics. This season, the Seattle Mariners ERA is 4.42 (20th), FIP is 4.29 (17th), 1.28 WHIP (15th), 3.3 walks per 9 innings (11th), etc. Overall the Seattle’s pitching has been okay but suffered through a myriad of injuries. Losing James Paxton for the season hurt quite a bit. Marco Gonzales going on the injured list for an extended period of time put the M’s down their top two rotation-mates in the early going.
Starting pitching has been a struggle outside of Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen, and the recent performance of rookie Logan Gilbert. In fact, their performance has brought the starter’s overall ERA down to 4.63, which ranks 19th in the league. Seattle starters rank near the bottom of the league in strikeouts per nine innings (24th), strikeout to walk ratio (27th), home runs given up (26th), etc.
Seattle’s bullpen was one of the best in the league for the month of April. But injuries piled up there too, and they cooled off. For the season the relievers rank 18th in ERA (4.14), 7th in WHIP (1.22), 16th in BAA (.230), etc. Many of their woes are from Rafael Montero who ranks dead last in closer efficiency (app/saves/blown saves/ERA/WHIP). Meanwhile, Kendall Graveman, who has received more save opportunities since his return from the IL than Montero, ranks in the league’s top 10 among closers.
The M’s put a lot of pressure on their pitching to perform and many times they do. They have the best record in extra-inning games (8-1), won the most one-run games (17), and have the best record in those games at 17-7. That does lend to a lot of opportunities for relievers to be successful in pressure situations. While Kikuchi and Flexen are currently the best in the rotation and putting up strong 2021 campaigns, the rest of the rotation needs to step up and compete, especially Justus Sheffield.
A complete change over to Kendall Graveman at closer is also important for the Mariners to sustain their current record. The development of Gilbert and the re-emergence of Marco Gonzalez as the Mariner’s ace will also help. Having four to five solid starters that can put the team in a position to win is going to be at a premium as offenses continue to improve with the warmer months ahead.
Every time the Seattle Mariners lose, naysayers and armchair critics take to social media to blame manager Scott Servais, but the facts say differently. The Mariners’ record is 40-37, after Friday’s win at Chicago. But their expected record is 34-43 based on a Pythagorean Win-Loss. A computation that takes runs scored and calculates it against opponents scoring. In addition, Seattle is really good at home (24-16) and really terrible on the road (15-21).
Managing one-run games to 17-7 is very impressive as well as winning despite a -46 run differential. Interestingly, the Mariners are 20-21 versus teams that are .500 or worse and 20-16 versus teams with a winning record. Of the 15 teams with winning records, the Mariners rank eighth in record vs. teams with losing records. The White Sox at 44-30 overall are 14-19 vs. teams with losing records. The Mets 7-12, Blue Jays 19-25, etc.
Despite the criticism that is heaped at Servais for his managerial mistakes, no one can claim that another manager would have done a better job with this team. The Mariners weren’t expected by anyone outside of their organization and fans to have a winning record. Yet, as the halfway point of the season approaches, they have a great shot at being at or above .500 when we pass that point.
His managing of Jarred Kelenic, which has been well-publicized, proved a point. Fans aren’t and never should be GMs. Out of spring training, fueled by former team president Kevin Mather’s comments, many fans wanted the Mariners to break camp with one of the top OF prospects in the game. Turns out M’s General Manager Jerry Dipoto caved to fan pressure and a hot start at Triple-A by Kelenic and brought up the prospect. The rookie failed miserably and continues to fail (.172 since being sent down to Tacoma) offensively.
While it’s fun to talk about Servais and question his decisions, a manager that wins a majority of his decisions is nice to have. Also, some of the responsibility for losses has to be on poor execution by the players. Montero is at the top of the list, so far he cost the Mariners eight wins. He leads the league in blown saves (6), has a .299 BAA and 8.32 ERA in save situations. Clearly, he isn’t a closer. Perhaps the criticism could be that Servais needed to move Graveman into the role sooner.
It’s unreasonable to think that the Seattle Mariners will win every game. Yet some Social Media “Keyboard Warriors” out there believe it should happen. It’s also unreasonable to pin every loss on Servais and not poor execution by the players. Finally, it’s unreasonable to expect the Mariners to continue winning one-run games as they have been.
It’s reasonable to root for the Mariner’s continued improvement on offense. For prospect promotions when those players prove they are ready. And for better pitching.
The Mariners are a young, exciting team. They are only going to get younger and more exciting as the season progresses. This doesn’t mean that they will win more. But it does mean that fans can expect the Mariners to be more competitive. At the time this was written, only two of the Mariners’ top 10 pre-season prospects are on the active roster, Logan Gilbert and Taylor Trammell. Trammell graduated from the prospect list as he’s exceeded rookie limits and Gilbert will graduate soon. So Seattle is winning without rushing their prospects to The Show.
M’s fans should be patient and kind, the Mariners continue to get more and more exciting as we go. Consequently, Dipoto shouldn’t rush into any splashy trades or free agent talks that will mortgage their future. Not yet anyway.
Statistical Credits: Baseball-Reference, CBS Sports, MLB.Com, Rotoworld
Joe Swenson is a lifelong Seattle Sports fan, award-winning playwright, published author, director, producer, and actor.