J.P. Crawford , Seattle Mariners.
It’s an age-old debate in baseball. Is it better for a team to develop young players to build a winner or buy veterans on the open market? Now that the Seattle Mariners border on relevancy in American League West, the team comes to a crossroads.
The fanbase seems to be split on how the M’s should proceed. Social media has fans clamoring on both sides. About half are saying trust the process and General Manager Jerry Dipoto. This is the best farm system Seattle’s had in decades. On the other side, it’s been, sign more vets and win now. Who cares about the farm system?
One fan went off about how the Los Angeles Lakers spend money to bring in the top talent and just win. The Lakers who play in the NBA, not the MLB, and are a very wealthy franchise. The M’s are not a wealthy franchise and don’t often spend close to luxury tax levels. Besides, they’ve been down that road of signing veterans recently. For example, the 2018 Seattle Mariners opened the season with MLB’s eighth-highest payroll ($162.48M). They won a championship, right? No. They must have made the playoffs? Wrong again.
Where does all of this leave the young up and coming beloved Seattle Mariners? Dipoto currently isn’t living up to his much-earned nickname of Trader Jerry this offseason. But he hasn’t been quiet either. So far, the GM has signed several free agents, mostly journeymen relievers and a starter candidate from South Korea. What Dipoto hasn’t done is bring in another hitter even though he’s on the record saying the organization is still looking for another bat.
But should Dipoto really bring in a veteran hitter? This is the point where some fans may get off this bus. Yet others will read on and be enlightened. I say, unless there is a deal Dipoto can’t turn down to acquire another hitter, the Seattle Mariners don’t need to go out and sign one.
To be clear, this is what I mean by an offer he can’t refuse. If a team comes to Dipoto and says, “Hey, we’ll happily take Kyle Seager, including all of his remaining salary for the final two years of his contract, off your hands AND give you a top premier hitter in return, it’s a done deal (probably after the other team said they would pick up the rest of his contract). But that won’t happen.
In reality, Seattle’s prospects need to play because they haven’t shown enough yet to make good decisions about them.
Some of you may eagerly point out that Kyle Lewis is the reigning Rookie of the Year. That both Evan White and J.P. Crawford won gold gloves. So, Seattle knows what it has with them and that they’ll only get better. Does Seattle? Let’s look at the 2020 season compared to a typical baseball season.
Last year consisted of 60 games or two months’ worth of normal MLB regular-season games. Sure, the M’s finished only a few games out of the playoffs. But again, lots of teams can be good for two months, then fall flat on their faces.
For example, the 2019 Mariners started the year like gangbusters. They were blasting every pitch they saw over the fence. Daniel Vogelbach (remember him?) looked like he might be the Mariners’ first baseman of the future or, at the very least, their DH. Then the league caught up with the M’s, and the team stunk horribly.
Dipoto is smart. When he says (paraphrasing) that the young players need to play, so the team has a better sense of what areas need improvement and what areas don’t. Players like Lewis, White, Ty France, Jose Marmolejos, Dylan Moore, and Luis Torrens have less than a full MLB year of experience. Any smart GM or fan would realize that there is not enough experience to decide those players. The sample size isn’t big enough.
Many of the Seattle Mariners’ young players show great promise. They got a taste of MLB success and failure in 2020. This winter, they’ll be better prepared for the upcoming 2020 season. That includes being better prepared for what the opposition does against them. Remember,
Lewis started to struggle towards the end of the year. Was that struggle because opponents figured out his weaknesses, simply just a slump, or a lack of protection around him in the batting order?
These young players need more time to grow and develop. They won’t be getting the necessary development at Triple-A anymore.
So, why not bring in some veterans to play until the young guys are ready? There are several reasons, but the biggest is development. Besides injury, the worst thing that can happen to these young players is bringing in a veteran to eat up innings or at-bats.
Proponents of the experience plan say if the Vets play well, Dipoto can move them for more future assets. This move is counterproductive to the primary goal of developing homegrown talent. Let’s say the Mariners bring back “Big Maple” James Paxton. Putting the money aside. He’ll make at least eight starts, judging by his career numbers; he’ll have a 3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP while striking out at least one batter per inning.
All of his starts could go to Justin Dunn, Logan Gilbert, Ljay Newsome, or Nick Margevicius. Adding Paxton puts the younger pitchers another year behind in their development. That means it would be sometime in 2022 before the team has a good idea if the young arms would be part of the rotation or bullpen moving forward. Or if they need not be in the M’s organization altogether.
While some of the young players look like building blocks of the future, Seattle also must be cautious about basing their assumptions on less than a year of MLB experience. Call it the Dustin Ackley principle. Once Dipoto and the M’s have a better idea of what their prospects can do against top-tier talent. Then the front office can have a better idea of what areas need help.
At the end of the day, what all Seattle Mariners fans are clamoring for is a winning team. Give the young players their chance to show what they can do. The ones who succeed will stay and play. The ones who fail can be replaced with veteran players. That’s the best way to give their fans what they want.
Where do you stand? Let us know in the comments section below or on social media.