Seattle Mariners, Evan White.
This preview will discuss the schedule, breakdown the Seattle Mariners expected everyday line-up, the rotation, what the bench should look like, and when to expect Jared Kelenic and Logan Gilbert, and other Mariner prospects.
The Mariners will open their 2021 season in Seattle against the Giants on April 1st, 2021, vs. the San Francisco Giants at 7:10 p.m. Pacific Time. Those that are into schedule analytics have taken a peek and know how tough April appears to be. Five of the eight series are against 2020 playoff teams. After the Giants, the Mariners face the White Sox at home and then travel to Minnesota for a series against the Twins.
They face the Orioles in Baltimore before flying back to Seattle for back-to-back two-game series against the Astros and Dodgers. Then the M’s fly back to the East Coast to face the Red Sox, followed by a trip to Houston to finish the month. It would be tough to anticipate a winning record coming out of April.
The month of May seems to be a bit easier for the Mariners, and should Jarred Kelenic get called up by the end of April. This could be a confidence booster to the young future star and the rest of the team. There are nine series in May, and only three of them are against 2020 playoff teams. Half of the games are against division rivals.
Seattle faces the defending World Series Champs for two games and then the Padres and Athletics in back-to-back series. May should be a month for the M’s to expect a winning record with 13 games against the Orioles, Rangers, and Tigers.
Things start to heat up for the M”s as summer approaches. The Tigers and the Rockies are the only opponents in the month projected to finish fourth or worse in their division. They also start the month with six straight games in six days against the Angels and A’s.
Seattle then plays ten straight games in 10 days against teams that made the playoffs in 2020 and are projected to be in contention in 2021. June should be a tough month; if the Mariners can escape at .500 for the month, that would be a massive win.
The All-Star Game could feature quite a few Mariners, should things go well. There are 24 games in July, and only ten are against 2020 playoff teams. At least all 10 of those games are at T-Mobile.
July could be a vital month for the Mariners and just in time for the 2021 trade deadline. Should the Mariners be in contention, expect Dipoto to make some trades to specifically shore up the rotation and bullpen.
August will be a hectic month for Seattle, with 28 games in 31 days. It all starts with a road series in Tampa followed by a series against the Yankees. The competition will be fierce; 17 of the 28 games are against 2020 playoff teams and 2021 projected contenders.
The other 11 games are against the Rangers (7) and Royals (4). K.C. could be sneaky good, but the Rangers are projected to finish in the AL West cellar. August will be a tough month for the Seattle Mariners, so shooting for .500 would be another significant win.
14 of the 26 September games are against division rivals the Astros, Angels, and Athletics. Only ten home games for the entire month as well. September is going to be tough.
The good news is that their non-divisional games are against the Red Sox, Royals, and Diamondbacks. The division race may be decided in the final weeks this year, especially with so many divisional games for all of the AL West to play in September.
All Seattle Mariners hope that there will be October baseball beyond the one scheduled series against the Angels at home. In 1995, the Mariners had to clinch the AL West in a one-game playoff against the Angels. Perhaps 26 seasons later, they get to close out their playoff drought against the Angels. That would have a bit of poetry in it.
The everyday lineup will evolve throughout the season. It would seem that Seattle Mariners Manager Scott Servais is of the same mindset that many Mariners fans are; that J.P. Crawford shouldn’t lead off (see ideal line-up article that addresses that). We are surprised by moving Mitch Haniger to lead-off, but then again, the Mariners do not have an ideal lead-off hitter, so having someone that can work a count does have ripple effect benefits. Here is the projected everyday line-up:
Mitch Haniger will also spend time at DH and take 1-2 off days per week until the Mariners confirm that he can play for multiple consecutive games. Especially coming off of significant time away from the game. He will work pitch counts, earn some walks, but also strike out a bit. He hits righties and lefties well, carrying a nearly identical career OPS (On-base plus slugging percentage).
2021 projections: 28 HRs, 10 SBs, .277 average, .841 OPS
The hope is that Dylan Moore cuts down on his strikeouts (31.4% of at-bats in 2020) and increases his walk total (14) to be the ideal number two-hitter in the Mariners lineup. In 2020 flashed both power (8 HRs) and speed (12 SBs). Moore is a future 20/20+ hitter. It’s written all over his peripherals.
Despite batting from the right side, Moore much stronger against right-handed pitchers (.900 OPS) vs. lefties (.762 OPS).
2021 projections: 20 HRs, 31 SBs, .261 average, .808 OPS
Kyle Lewis is dealing with a bone bruise after colliding with the wall in left-centerfield last week. He won’t be available to start the season on the opening day roster but will be the everyday centerfielder this season after he returns. Starting a line-up with three straight right-handed hitters isn’t ideal.
Lewis hits righty pitchers really well (so does Moore). In his brief career, Lewis has hit righties 78 points better than lefties (.285 vs. .208). That is significant when you are building a line-up.
2021 projections: 31 HRs, 9 SBs, .258 average, .866 OPS.
The first left-handed bat in the line-up will be Kyle Seager, who is coming off of one of his best seasons. Will he get to the 30 home run threshold, like in 2016? Kyle is playing for either the Mariners to exercise their 2022 team option or for free agency after the season.
Either way, he’s playing for his future, which means that 2021 has to be one of his best seasons ever. At 33-years-old, he has one major contract left in him at this point. Seager is also a lefty that hits southpaws well, especially as he gets older.
2021 Projections: 24 HRs, 3 SBs, .245 average, .776 OPS.
The soon-to-be 27-year-old is an early fan favorite. There are lots of reasons to get excited about Ty France. His bat plays at the Major League level, he has a fantastic attitude, and to start the season, he’ll be sandwiched between a veteran and a rookie.
France pounds right-handed pitchers to the tune of a career .787 OPS vs. .701 against left-handers. It’s easy to get over-hyped about him, but he does have a problem with strikeouts. Last season, France fanned at a 26.2 percent clip in 2020 and still hit .305. High strikeouts mean that he’s prone to good and bad streaks.
2021 Projections: 23 HRs, 2 SBs, .273 average, .782 OPS.
The great news is that Taylor Trammell did enough to start the season on the big league roster and likely as the opening day left fielder. What is really intriguing is that he will be under the microscope from day one of 2021.
Trammell could be a mere place-holder until Kelenic arrives. Or he could solidify himself as an everyday leftfielder as well. It’s up to him to become the latter.
The 23-year-old profiles as a 15/15+ offensive player with a high batting ceiling. But like many of his teammates, he also struggles with strikeouts. His spring training stats were great, though. Trammell hit for a .302 average and 1.016 OPS. Probably not sustainable, but great.
2021 Projections: 17 HRs, 21 SBs, .238 average, .737 OPS
Tom Murphy will be the lead in a 55/45 split of catching duties along with Luis Torrens as the M’s organization awaits Cal Raleigh’s arrival (projected late 2022). The power-hitting catcher had a rough spring at the plate. He missed all of 2020 with a foot injury, and the rust appears to be securely affixed to his bat.
Offensive difficulties could change the split percentage between Murphy and Torrens. He’s a good defensive catcher, and many pitchers have mentioned how comfortable they feel with him behind the dish. If Murphy gets the bat going and any concerns will be moot.
2021 Projections: 19 HRs, 0 SBs, .255 average, .771 OPS
It’s easy to be encouraged by some of the changes we’ve seen in Evan White’s swing. He has shown a significant reduction in strikeouts, cutting them nearly in half (46.2 percent in 2020, 23.3 percent in spring training 2021). His spring numbers seem more in line with where he was in the minor leagues.
His bat still profiles as a major league bat, especially with the reduction in strikeouts, and anything north of .230, at this point, should be a big bonus for the Seattle Mariners. White turns 25 in April, and being out there for an entire season will benefit him. But understand that he’s out there to save runs and occasionally produce runs, not the other way around.
2021 Projections: 26 HRs, 4 SBs, .223 average, .658 OPS.
Crawford had a spring to forget about at the plate. He only mustered five hits, all singles. There were bright spots, though. Trammell also managed to accumulate eight walks, and while the move down the line-up seems to be a punishment for his batting performance, he’s taken it all in stride.
The Gold Glove-winning shortstop wouldn’t mind earning his way back to the top of the lineup, but an on-base machine at the bottom of the lineup carries benefits to turning the line-up over. He’s here for this defense, and saving runs for the pitching staff has its value.
2021 Projections: 10 HRs, 17 SBs, .238 average, .619 OPS.
The bench and who’s on it is a different set-up than the projected line-up.
Torrens is involved in a 45-55 percent split with veteran Tom Murphy. This means that he’s going to get plenty of playing time compared to most backup backstops.
Catcher is a position where the Mariners have some decent depth, especially with powerful Cal Raleigh waiting in the wings. That said, Torrens projects to get close to 300 plate appearances, should Murphy stay healthy all season.
Jake Fraley is a true outfielder, but Sam Haggerty and Jose Marmolejos have value as utility players in the outfield and select infield spots. The door to some great versatility. That way, Seattle can get the right match-ups against opposing pitchers.
Eventually, it would seem that Taylor Trammell would occupy one of these bench positions, but for now, these are the three. One of them could rack up some tolls between Tacoma and Seattle. Bishop has been relegated to the Alternate Site, meaning he’s available to join the roster at a moment’s notice.
Marmolejos will play some first base throughout the season; Haggerty can man the middle-infield. Because of the lineup’s versatility, some configuration of Dylan Moore, Ty France, and Haggerty could occupy second base and sometimes shortstop (Moore and Haggerty).
The 29-year-old ace of the Seattle Mariner’s rotation will once again take the ball on opening day. 2021 will be Marco Gonzales‘ third consecutive opening day start for the M’s. He continues to get better the more he distances himself from Tommy John surgery.
Gonzales hasn’t missed a start in three seasons, and last year he made two significant improvements. His strikeouts per nine innings pitched (K/9) improved to 8.3, as did his 9.14 strikeouts to walks ratio (K/BB) were both career bests. The latter of the two led the American League.
He was on pace for a 19-5 season last year and nearly 180 k’s while walking less than 20. That’s Cliff Lee-like, except Gonzales didn’t give up hits like Lee always did. He had an impressive sub-1.000 WHIP as well.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 15-8, 3.66 ERA, 165 strikeouts.
If someone could announce that the Mariners were back with their spring training effort, The Big Maple is that person. At 32-years-old, pitchers often try to start reinventing themselves, or they become irrelevant. Not James Paxton, not yet anyway.
He owns a mid 90s fastball that touched 97 at times during his last start. In 8.1 innings, Paxton struck out 17 and gave up just four hits, along with four walks. The question for Paxton is will this be his first fully healthy season?
Paxton has spent time on the Injured List in every big league season (8 stints in 7 seasons). If he is healthy for an entire season, all he does is win and strike batters out.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 15-10, 3.81 ERA, 210 strikeouts.
Chris Flexen is an American import from Korea. Initially drafted by the Mets, Dipoto saw enough in him in the KBO to give the righty starter a smallish multi-year contract. There’s not a lot of financial risk involved with him. To be honest, he’s a placeholder for Logan Gilbert, Emmerson Hancock, or George Kirby.
Early in the exhibition season, he made everyone nervous by showing a wild side and a surprisingly hittable pitch repertoire. Then in his last two starts, he turned it on and finished with some respectable numbers.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 8-8, 4.52 ERA, 160 strikeouts.
He’s two seasons in, and while it still might be early to call him a bust, Yusei Kikuchi has plenty to prove this season. The hard-throwing left-hander from Japan could be in his final season with the Mariners. Kikuchi needs to turn his efforts into better results. An 8-15 lifetime record with a 5.39 ERA just isn’t getting it done.
Taking a closer look at his numbers, he had an awful start to last season and didn’t have enough games to fix it completely. Kikuchi is wild, but his batting average against improved by nearly 60 points. He did walk more batters last year, per inning, than he did in his rookie year. But he missed more bats or gave up soft contact at a greater clip than in 2019.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 7-11, 4.69 ERA, 158 strikeouts.
As the 2021 season progresses, expect to see Justus Sheffield under consideration for moving up in the rotation. The soon-to-be 25-year-old southpaw had a great season last year compared to his previous Major League efforts.
Sheffield switched from throwing a mid-90s four-seam fastball to a low-to-mid 90s two-seam fastball with tremendous movement. He also found better control and gave up only two home runs in 55.1 innings pitched. The Mariners might have the best fifth starter in the league.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 11-8, 3.92 ERA, 153 strikeouts.
In a full season, fans are curious about how the six-man rotation will work. The hard-throwing righty slots in at number six in the rotation, which still has some details missing.
For example, will the Mariners skip Justin Dunn when there are enough off days? If that happens, then you can add another start to the first five pitchers in the rotation for every five times that happens. If the M’s are fully committed to a six-man starting rotation, Dunn potentially starts 27 games.
So far in Dunn’s career. Walks have plagued him. He walks batters at an alarming rate. This spring, Dunn was especially terrible with 9 walks in 11 innings. His 1.727 WHIP was the sixth-highest among M’s pitchers with at least 11 innings pitched.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 6-12, 4.88 ERA, 127 strikeouts.
Rafael Montero looked terrible this spring. Especially on Monday during his last spring appearance. Before that outing, he just looked terrible. I’m not sure Rafael Montero is the answer, but other than Servais saying that he’s going to try different closers this season, he’s what we’re looking at for now.
2021 Projections: 33 saves, 5 blown saves, 4.03 ERA.
There will be a blending of bullpen responsibilities between setup and middle relief. If Nick Margevicius takes to the bullpen, he could find himself in a setup role instead of middle-to-long relief.
Although the days of the lefty specialist are fading fast, due to the three batter rule, there is still a need to mix things up in the bullpen. Anthony Misiewicz has looked amazing this spring and only gave up one run (on a solo shot). He could be the lefty answer Seattle needs in the bullpen. Kendall Graveman has found his velocity. Keynan Middleton has bullpen experience from his rookie year.
Overall the Seattle Mariners bullpen is revamped and should be much better than last year’s aberration.
The Mariners have James Paxton. That means that Margevicius should be ready to go at a moment’s notice for a missed start from Paxton (or any of our starters). Otherwise, he’s needed to keep things from getting out of control in the middle innings.
Rule 5 draft pick Will Vest is a curious addition to the roster and likely cost Erik Swanson a spot. Vest strikes batters out. That’s about it. His spring wasn’t very good, other than the strikeouts, and he’s nearly 26-years-old. Casey Sadler is 30-years-old, he doesn’t carry much value other than an arm to exhaust when the Mariners are down big to a team. He’s not a strikeout pitcher. Drew Steckenrider is a veteran arm to eat up innings when necessary.
Mark it on your calendar. Before the AAA season begins, Jarred Kelenic will be with the Mariners. It would seem that Fraley, Bishop, and now Trammell are ahead of him in the outfield pecking order, but that’s just until Kelenic’s service time clock leads another year of team control.
Sometime between April 16th and May 7th, he will join the Mariners. Trammell will then either be sent down to the minors, start a platoon with Haniger as the veteran flips to DH, or has off-days early in the season.
Kelenic won’t be the only one to join the Mariners from the minors or the alternative site. Bishop, Fraley, and others will join the mix as injuries appear. Also, count on seeing Donovan Walton, Joey Gerber, Aaron Fletcher, Erik Swanson, and Yohan Ramirez up with the team. Kelenic, however, is the one that will force his way into the lineup.
Before the All-Star break, top pitching prospect Logan Gilbert will join the Mariners. There are others ahead of him as well. The emergency starter will be Margevicius, but LJ Newsome, Swanson, and others might see time in the Mariners 2021 rotation. George Kirby could also join the Mariners at some point this season, and it would figure to be during the dog days of summer.
At some point, Seattle may call on Andres Munoz. The M’s closer of the future features a 103 MPH fastball, and he strikes batters out at an astonishing clip. He’s only 22 years old, so there is plenty of time to let him recover from 2020 Tommy John surgery. While France, Torrens, and Trammell are highlights of the 2020 deadline trade with San Diego, Munoz might end up being the steal of that trade.
The Mariners are loaded with prospects. While Trammell, Kelenic, and Gilbert are likely the only top 100 prospects that will arrive in 2021, Emmerson Hancock, Kirby, and Julio Rodriguez are getting close. Seattle is loaded, and it’s not just the big names. They have the second-ranked farm system according to Baseball America and MLB.com’s number three farm system.
Noelvi Marte, Jonatan Clase, and Cal Raleigh are recognizable names, but there are so many more at different minor league levels and the Mariner’s international teams.
It’s a great time to be a Seattle Mariners fan. There isn’t an annoying bandwagon yet. Plus, there isn’t a lot of noise or high expectations for the 2021 team.
It will be a young and exciting team that takes the field at T-Mobile Park in 2021. They will remind fans what is fun about baseball and that it’s a game. Also a highly competitive game, but one where it’s okay to smile and share a laugh.
Their future looks very bright, and while last season the M’s just missed the playoffs, they weren’t ready. I don’t know that this year’s team will make it either, but I think they will be entertaining and competitive. Look outside of the Pacific Northwest for a minute. As opposed to the rest of the league, you can see how this team is rebuilding in a completely different way.
The Baltimore Orioles seem to have been in a perpetual rebuild and remain constant bottom feeders. Since 1998 they’ve made the playoffs just three times. Moreover, they had a worse record than the Mariners in 16 of those 22 seasons. The Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins, and now Texas Rangers are going through long rebuilds of their own.
Seattle is doing it differently. They didn’t reload; they gutted and grabbed every good prospect they could get their hands on. Throw in Haniger and Murphy’s respective returns, along with the acquisitions of France and Torrens, and this team is taking a decent shape. Paxton and Flexen join a rotation on the rise. Sheffield is finding his way. If Kikuchi and Dunn don’t last, Gilbert, Newsome, and others are waiting in the wings.
A Seattle Mariners fan since 1986, Joe Swenson is an award-winning writer, playwright, director, and producer. He owns the production company Broken Arts Entertainment, www.brokenartsentertainment.com. You can also watch him on “In The Clutch” by searching YouTube.