Seattle Mariners comprehensive 2021 team preview
2021 Seattle Mariners Rotation
SP1 – Marco Gonzales
The 29-year-old ace of the Seattle Mariner’s rotation will once again take the ball on opening day. 2021 will be Marco Gonzales‘ third consecutive opening day start for the M’s. He continues to get better the more he distances himself from Tommy John surgery.
Gonzales hasn’t missed a start in three seasons, and last year he made two significant improvements. His strikeouts per nine innings pitched (K/9) improved to 8.3, as did his 9.14 strikeouts to walks ratio (K/BB) were both career bests. The latter of the two led the American League.
He was on pace for a 19-5 season last year and nearly 180 k’s while walking less than 20. That’s Cliff Lee-like, except Gonzales didn’t give up hits like Lee always did. He had an impressive sub-1.000 WHIP as well.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 15-8, 3.66 ERA, 165 strikeouts.
SP2 – James Paxton
If someone could announce that the Mariners were back with their spring training effort, The Big Maple is that person. At 32-years-old, pitchers often try to start reinventing themselves, or they become irrelevant. Not James Paxton, not yet anyway.
He owns a mid 90s fastball that touched 97 at times during his last start. In 8.1 innings, Paxton struck out 17 and gave up just four hits, along with four walks. The question for Paxton is will this be his first fully healthy season?
Paxton has spent time on the Injured List in every big league season (8 stints in 7 seasons). If he is healthy for an entire season, all he does is win and strike batters out.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 15-10, 3.81 ERA, 210 strikeouts.
SP3 – Chris Flexen
Chris Flexen is an American import from Korea. Initially drafted by the Mets, Dipoto saw enough in him in the KBO to give the righty starter a smallish multi-year contract. There’s not a lot of financial risk involved with him. To be honest, he’s a placeholder for Logan Gilbert, Emmerson Hancock, or George Kirby.
Early in the exhibition season, he made everyone nervous by showing a wild side and a surprisingly hittable pitch repertoire. Then in his last two starts, he turned it on and finished with some respectable numbers.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 8-8, 4.52 ERA, 160 strikeouts.
SP4 – Yusei Kikuchi
He’s two seasons in, and while it still might be early to call him a bust, Yusei Kikuchi has plenty to prove this season. The hard-throwing left-hander from Japan could be in his final season with the Mariners. Kikuchi needs to turn his efforts into better results. An 8-15 lifetime record with a 5.39 ERA just isn’t getting it done.
Taking a closer look at his numbers, he had an awful start to last season and didn’t have enough games to fix it completely. Kikuchi is wild, but his batting average against improved by nearly 60 points. He did walk more batters last year, per inning, than he did in his rookie year. But he missed more bats or gave up soft contact at a greater clip than in 2019.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 7-11, 4.69 ERA, 158 strikeouts.
SP 5 – Justus Sheffield
As the 2021 season progresses, expect to see Justus Sheffield under consideration for moving up in the rotation. The soon-to-be 25-year-old southpaw had a great season last year compared to his previous Major League efforts.
Sheffield switched from throwing a mid-90s four-seam fastball to a low-to-mid 90s two-seam fastball with tremendous movement. He also found better control and gave up only two home runs in 55.1 innings pitched. The Mariners might have the best fifth starter in the league.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 11-8, 3.92 ERA, 153 strikeouts.
SP 6 – Justin Dunn
In a full season, fans are curious about how the six-man rotation will work. The hard-throwing righty slots in at number six in the rotation, which still has some details missing.
For example, will the Mariners skip Justin Dunn when there are enough off days? If that happens, then you can add another start to the first five pitchers in the rotation for every five times that happens. If the M’s are fully committed to a six-man starting rotation, Dunn potentially starts 27 games.
So far in Dunn’s career. Walks have plagued him. He walks batters at an alarming rate. This spring, Dunn was especially terrible with 9 walks in 11 innings. His 1.727 WHIP was the sixth-highest among M’s pitchers with at least 11 innings pitched.
2021 Projections: 27 starts, 6-12, 4.88 ERA, 127 strikeouts.