J.P. Crawford , Seattle Mariners.
When General Manager Jerry Dipoto came to the Emerald City in 2015, the Seattle Mariners adopted a more sabermetric-driven philosophy. Advanced analytics have evolved from seasonal generalities to specific game management strategies. Dipoto and Manager Scott Servais are all-in using ‘the numbers’ as a strategy to create opportunities for success during games.
Having this information at the team’s disposal and using it to perfect practice are two different things. Improving launch angle, for example, isn’t as easy as changing the speed slot that your bat lags through. It’s undoing years of practice and practical application.
Then it’s perfectly practicing the nuances of hands, the drifting of the hands into loading up, unlocking the hips, which maximize power, finally generating the correct pull/push ratio and lag from the hands/wrists to create lift. Lift is just one of the many analytics that the Mariners want to improve in 2021, but it’s far from the only thing requiring improvement.
There was an analytic that significantly impacted the Mariners pitchers from August 2020 to September 2020. Specifically analyzing spin rate and less reliance on fastballs. The strategy led to a decline in fastball usage, with nearly every pitcher on the staff during that time frame.
A great example of this was Yusei Kikuchi, who had an atrocious start to last season, posting a 6.38 ERA in his first five starts. Over his final four starts, Kikuchi had a 4.09 ERA. According to Baseball Savant, he started 2020 with a similar trajectory of fastball usage as he had in 2019 (49 percent). However, in September, that dropped significantly (31%) as he relied more on pitches with movement.
This is part of a trend that is sweeping throughout baseball. Using analytics to find ways to increase spin rate results in more opportunities to succeed. You might be asking yourself, what does this have to do with art. Some of the greatest mathematicians in the world’s history were incredible artists (DiVinci, Michaelangelo, etc.). The entire choreography of baseball is now built out of these analytics, from fielder positioning to distance from first base when leading off. There are geometric angles involved throughout the game. DaVinci would be proud.
On defense, the Seattle Mariners adjust to opposing hitters better than most teams. Seattle was middle of the pack when it came to total shift percentage in 2020 (33.3 percentage). They were one of the lowest when it came to right-handed hitters (10.7 percent) and one of the highest against left-handed hitters (71.2 percent). As a result, the Mariners finished fourth in wOBA (Weighted On Base Average) at .310. Only the World Series Champion Dodgers and playoff contenders Twins and White Sox were better than the Mariners.
Good art is often duplicated. The 2021 Seattle Mariners will produce compelling and potentially successful art. Parts of it are original, but this rebuild looks familiar. As opening day approaches, it’s easy to dismiss the Seattle Mariners on a national stage because of how young they are. Due to their lack of known players, it’s also easy for media members to dismiss the M’s as not compelling or unable to compete. Maybe those people forgot some recent history.
In 2018, the Atlanta Braves were projected to finish last or second to last as they entered the third year of their rebuild. They came into the 2018 season as the youngest team in MLB. In fact, their only starting players over the age of 28 were position players Kurt Suzuki and Nick Markakis and pitcher Anibal Sanchez in the rotation.
Atlanta was creating compelling art. They were faster, had a stronger defense, and focused more on gap-to-gap power (26 home runs led the team). With their pitching, the Braves focused on how much to use their young staff. Atlanta also split closing duties between two young relievers (Arodys Vizcaino and A.J. Minter). Led by four pitchers that were 27 or younger in their rotation, Atlanta won the highly competitive NL East in 2018. So much for early predictions of doom and gloom.
Now, look at the 2021 Mariners. Only two position players Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger, are over 30. As far as the rotation goes, only James Paxton was born before 1990.
The Braves 2018 comparison is so strong that even the Jarred Kelenic service-time conversations relate. Ronald Acuna Jr. was a top prospect in 2018. He debuted on April 25, 2018, after playing 23 terrible games at AAA. He would go on to win the Rookie of the Year. Opposing teams shouldn’t sleep on the 2021 Seattle Mariners, either.
Unheralded, the grounds crew lay the foundation of baseball’s art. Strategic in every aspect, in sync with the team’s makeup, the grounds crew puts in the work to help a team take full advantage of their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. What they do is a true art form.
In the MLB rules for Field Maintenance, there is a minimum and maximum length of grass-based on the type of grass. The range is typically between a half-an-inch to a full-inch. It makes a significant difference. The kind of dirt used within the MLB rules is based on three sediment grades: sand, silt, and clay.
For a team built on speed like the Mariners, there are advantages on both offense and defense to taller grass. As a high-contact, fast team, they want taller grass to slow down the ball’s topspin, creating more opportunities to beat out routine grounders. Defensively, knowing that the grass will grab the ball on the ground, they take advantage of their infielder’s superior range to play closer to the grass in a traditional alignment.
The dirt used has offensive and defensive benefits as well. A mixture that absorbs water faster allows for the infield to dry out quicker, benefitting teams that are aggressive on the basepaths. This also impacts barreled non-lifted balls in a positive way as well, by giving infielders less time to react.
The Seattle Mariners are built on speed first, gap power second. Setting up the playing area correctly should result in a home-field advantage over a team built on power first.
The M’s have gold-glove caliber defense around the horn. Behind Gold Glove winners Evan White and J.P. Crawford these Mariners will save more runs than they give up on defense, and that’ll help a pitching staff out. They have speed in the outfield and potentially more speed when Kelenic does arrive. Most importantly, they have coachability.
The Mariners’ projected rotation is good enough “as is” to win games. All Marco Gonzales does is win games (.608 winning percentage). Newly re-acquired James Paxton is also a proven winner (.633 winning percentage). Add in Justus Sheffield’s improvement from 2019 to 2020, and it’s not hard to see how close the Mariners are to creating winning circumstances.
Finally, factor in the major differences between the 2019 and 2020 Mariners teams. Even the most questionable starters are in a better position to win games with a greatly upgraded bullpen, not to mention quality defense and an offense that can score runs in bunches.
It’s almost baseball time in the Pacific Northwest. The opportunity to be successful in 2021 is there for the Mariners. As fans gradually return to T-Mobile Park, they’ll see a team that’s fun to watch.
Joe Swenson is a lifelong Seattle Sports Fan, President of Broken Arts Entertainment, www.brokenartsentertainment.com, and host of the sports talk show, “In The Clutch.”