James Paxton, Seattle Mariners (photo by hj_west, via flickr)
It didn’t take long. Not long at all. Only one start and 1 1/3 innings for Seattle Mariners starter James Paxton to get hurt and wind up on the Injured List. His nickname is Big Maple, but he hardly reflects a sturdy Maple tree. Paxton is more like an Ash Tree, brittle and easily broken.
Tuesday, the news came in that Big Ash is heading for a Tommy John surgery, thus ending his 2021 season. So, Big Ash is leafing the Mariners rotation.
Let’s first start with some of the items we know. First, the Mariners want to use a six-man rotation this year. Second, 2019 first-round draft pick Logan Gilbert is likely coming up to the M’s this year. As for the when, that information is TBD at this point. The biggest question is, what will manager Scott Servais and GM Jerry Dipoto do with the current group of Mariners pitchers?
We’re going to tackle each one of those topics based on the information we currently know. And what we can logically infer will happen. There are many different avenues for how the M’s navigate the loss of Paxton. But I think these three topics are the most important or at least the most interesting.
So, let’s start with the six-man rotation. On opening day, Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen, Justus Sheffield, James Paxton, and Justin Dunn were the chosen six. With Paxton’s departure, the M’s called up Ljay Newsome to fill the vacant roster spot.
Newsome replaces Nick Margevicius in the bullpen. That’s because Margevicius is taking Paxton’s spot in the rotation. Logical moves here, no doubt. Additionally, if Seattle needs to start a righty due to a particular matchup, Newsome can do the job.
But this is where I’m going to throw something a bit different at you. At the end of the 2020 season, both Dunn and Margevicius were in the rotation. Heading into the offseason, they were expected to compete or re-earn their rotation spots against Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.
Then Dipoto signed Chris Flexen from Korea, which basically ended any chance of Gilbert or Kirby making the rotation. Flexen’s signing was followed by the Paxton signing. The Paxton signing changed the competition for the final spot to Dunn versus Margevicius for the final rotation spot.
Now that Paxton is gone, the young guns may be up sooner than expected; someone will go back to the pen. That will once again pit Dunn and Margevicius for a spot in the rotation, this time against full MLB rosters.
My money is on Dunn going to the pen. He already has experience as a reliever, and if he can’t get his control in check, a move out of the rotation may be best. Dunn already has one start that wasn’t great. By the time the M’s get to Gilbert’s predicted call-up window, both Dunn and Margevicius will have one or two more starts. Giving Dunn a total of three and Margevicius two starts.
The expectation is that Gilbert will get the big league call this year. When that will be, is TBD to the public. Dipoto did share that the Gilbert plan is to work short innings, with the intention of building up for the end of the year. Maybe right in time for a playoff push?
If you believe Kevin Mather, the call-up will come most likely during the Houston or LA Dodgers series. So, that’s anywhere from April 16 and 20. During this time, the M’s will acquire another year of control over the big right-hander’s contract.
However, Gilbert may come up later. To date, Gilbert has only a total of 135 innings of professional baseball experience. Those were all in 2019. His highest level was 50 innings of Double-A. Due to the pandemic, the 2020 minor league season was canceled. So, he only threw at the alternate training site.
To this point, we don’t know how many innings Gilbert logged. The M’s have already shown that they have no intention of rushing him to the big leagues. Upon reaching those 135 innings in 2019, the M’s shut down Gilbert. They planned to bring him to the majors in 2020.
The pandemic altered Seattle’s plans. So, my educated guess is that somewhere between April 16 and May 31 is when Gilbert makes his long-awaited Mariners debut.
What do you think will happen with the Seattle Mariners pitching staff? Let us know in the comments section below or on social media.