Eugenio Suarez, Seattle Mariners.
Tuesday night, the Seattle Mariners defeated Oakland 3-2 to even their season record at 24-24. That’s four games better than they were at this point a year ago when they went to the playoffs.
Then why does it feel as if the team is worse, not better?
Seattle Mariners had higher expectations, along with the perception Houston would regress some. With the losses of Justin Verlander and Yuli Gurriel, in addition to Jose Altuve and other starters missing time, it feels like Seattle should be closer than they are now.
There is also some credence to how offensive performance impacts perception. In 2022, the Seattle Mariners batted .239 through 48 games, while the current Mariners are batting .228. Last year’s squad had a .707 OPS compared to 2023’s .688.
The expectation is that the 2023 Seattle Mariners will continue to improve, while the 2022 M’s actually regressed to finish with a .230 batting average. This April was especially brutal for Seattle batters, as evidenced by their .218 team batting average.
In May, it rose to .241, and over the last 14 days, Seattle is batting at a .244 clip. So they are progressing towards league average at this point.
What’s harder to see is how outstanding the pitching staff has been in 2023 versus where we were in 2022. At this point last year, the M’s had a 4.07 ERA and were in the middle of one of the worst ERA months of the last decade, posting a 4.63 for May.
This year’s Seattle Mariners are at 3.53, the third-best in the Majors. Over the last 30 days, their ERA is a stingy 3.36.
Hitting woes are much easier to perceive because scoring runs makes headlines. Effective pitching is harder to see when the team loses 3-2.
Despite the record being four games better than it was at this point last season, offensive productivity oftentimes runs the narrative over pitching proficiency. That’s why fans perceive the team isn’t as good.
Last season the biggest tweaks Seattle made were with the pitchers. In the rotation, George Kirby came up from the minors to replace an ineffective Matt Brash. Later in the season, they traded for Luis Castillo, which put Chris Flexen into a relief role.
In the bullpen, the ineffective duo of Drew Steckenrider and Sergio Romo were released. That, combined with Brash’s return as a dominating setup man and gems like Penn Murfee and Erik Swanson finding their way, improved the entire unit.
Recently manager Scott Servais made some tweaks to the batting order. Overall, the adjustments have improved the offense.
J.P. Crawford moving to leadoff, Jarred Kelenic‘s incredible turnaround (it might not be sustainable, but he’s proving people wrong) and moving him up to clean-up, and adding Cabellero as the 60 part of the 60-40 split at second base are paying off.
The Settle Mariners should also see progression to the mean with 2022 American League Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez and former Silver Slugger Teoscar Hernandez. That’s what will fill out the entire offense and give opposing pitchers nightmares.
Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock are veterans and will also progress toward the mean. Dylan Moore is on a rehab assignment and should be back with the team relatively soon.
Meanwhile, Sam Haggerty is getting back to himself after an early-season concussion. Over the last two weeks, he slashed .375/.444/.500/.944 as Servais slowly brings him along.
Seattle is .500 and is one of the only teams with a lower OPS this year than last. The Perception among fans is that Mariners are doing worse. Their record says it’s not true.
Yes, they have been sluggish offensive (but not very far off), and some key contributors struggled. On the other hand, Mariners pitchers are having a way better year than last year.
The good news is Texas probably won’t continue to win 63% of their games all season, the bad news is Houston is still very good. The Seattle Mariners are in a good position and are a hot streak away from making a run and haven’t gotten much from some key contributors.
All in all, the Seattle Mariners fortunes look better than we think. And they should get even better as summer approaches.