Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners.
Recently, one of my Pacific Northwest Sports colleagues, Chris Phillips, wrote an article on the need to fire batting coach Tim Laker before it’s too late. I couldn’t agree more, based on everything that Phillips wrote. There’s more, though. Firing Laker and hiring a new batting coach will fix things permanently, but it is a necessary move.
After Tuesday’s no-hitter (second of the season against the M’s), Seattle’s batting average dropped below .200. From an on-base perspective, they are getting on at a .279 clip, which is also rock bottom of the league. The Mariners lineup features seven hitters with at least 80 plate appearances and a batting average below .186.
M’s super prospect Jarred Kelenic played in seven games, with hits in three of them. His batting average is an uninspiring .179 with a .233 on base percentage.
When the Mariners can get players on base, the dynamic changes. With runners on base, they bat .256. The M’s get even better when they advance a runner into scoring position. In those situations, the team batting average jumps to 267.
The batting splits reveal an even more infuriating effort. At home, Seattle is batting .178 while striking at 32.9 percent of the time. When swinging at the first pitch, Seattle is batting .183 in 42 at-bats and has a .210 on-base percentage. It doesn’t matter whether the M’s are facing a starting pitcher or a reliever. Those numbers are absolutely atrocious.
Much can be inferred about the ballpark factor at T-Mobile early in the season. If 100 is even, a score over 100 favors hitters; under 100 means it’s a pitcher’s park. According to Baseball-Reference, T-Mobile park is at 93 this season.
Unfortunately, ballpark factor doesn’t account for strikeouts. Seattle batters strikeout 30 percent of the time, fourth-worst in MLB. That means it doesn’t matter where they play; this lineup is junk. The Seattle Mariners’ goal at this point should be to load the top of the line-up with players that can get on base in any possible fashion.
This is definitely going to be an unconventional approach. Actually, it’s borrowing from a page out of Los Angeles Angels manager Joe Madden’s playbook. Load the top of the line-up with the best on-base hitters and see what the trickle-down effect is.
Don’t worry too much about lefty-righty; that’s clearly not working anyway. Just get players who can reach base as many times as possible and go from there.
If Servais can’t create a line-up like this, he needs to be shown the door because the one he keeps using gets no-hit by terrible pitchers. Here’s what the line-up should be when everyone is healthy.
*Sample size might be too small to consider him in the ninth spot yet.
I know it looks crazy, but if the Seattle Mariners can get more players on base, more often, then they can take advantage of their strengths, batting average with runners on base and runners in scoring position.
Seattle Mariners batters need to stop jumping at the first pitch. By working counts, they get better pitches to hit. They also need to change the line-up around because it’s not a good one. Trying the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.
It definitely hurts that the M’s best on-base man is injured right now. While everyone thought that interjecting some of Kelenic’s confidence and energy would change the offensive’s trajectory, so far, it hasn’t. Right now, he isn’t helping the team.
For those who are into WAR, the Seattle Mariners combined WAR for the entire baseball team is -3.8. Only the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers are worse. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement, but to further define WAR, it’s the distance that a player has on being replaced by someone from AAA.
That is a rabbit hole for another day. The great Vin Scully paraphrased Scottish poet Andrew Lang when he said “statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination. Even Lang and Scully would be amazed at the depths Seattle bats sunk in 2021.
The bottom line is that the Mariners’ lineup is terrible. They are lucky to be two games under .500 on the season, and their offense needs rescuing right now.
Joe Swenson is a lifelong Seattle Sports Fan, awarding-winning playwright, and director, as well as a producer, author, and executive producer for the Quarantine 2038 Project, coming soon to a streaming service near you.