Tyler Anderson, Seattle Mariners.
The Seattle Mariners went into last season with a solid six-man rotation. Injuries, however, decimated the original staff. It started early when they lost James Paxton after only a few pitches into his first start. He needed Tommy John Surgery and missed the entire year. New ace Marco Gonzales was out all of May with a forearm strain.
Justus Sheffield, Nick Margevicius, and Justin Dunn also missed time with injuries. Margevicius, who replaced Paxton saw his season go down the tubes at the end of April due to elbow surgery. Meanwhile, Sheffield and Dunn pitched through the first few months but after their respective injuries couldn’t make it back to the rotation and were sent down to Tacoma.
Finally, Yusei Kikuchi went from All-Star in July to unusable in September. It looked like his arm went dead two-thirds of the way through the season. The only starter to make it through 2021 unscathed was newcomer Chris Flexen.
There is good news. Gonzales came back strong and had a terrific second half. The overwhelming number of injuries lead to prize prospect Logan Gilbert‘s promotion to Seattle. He settled in nicely and put up some good numbers. His big focus this time around is to keep the ball on his side of the fence. Flexen is back for year two. Finally, Seattle Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto replaced Kikuchi with defending American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. So, the first four spots in the rotation are set.
That still leaves Seattle Skipper Scott Servais two-men short in his six-man rotation. Filling those jobs is a strong point of emphasis when spring training begins.
So who is in line to fill the last two spots?
Look for the Seattle Mariners to give Justus Sheffield every opportunity to succeed this spring. During the 2020 COVID-shortened season, Sheff looked like he was progressing toward a steady middle-to-back end starter. Unfortunately, it all blew up on him in 2021.
It was so bad that after his injury healed up, Seattle sent him to Triple-A Tacoma because of his ineffectiveness. He didn’t pitch much better there, either. The M’s hope a winter off gives him enough rest to compete in 2022. If Sheffield doesn’t make the team, Seattle is likely done with him.
It seems odd to call Justin Dunn a veteran with just 25 MLB games under his belt. Last season he was good early on, especially in May when he posted a 2.52 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .563 OPS. Then he developed shoulder problems which effectively ended his season after a pair of starts in June. The longest he’s gone in any of his 25 career starts is 6.0 innings.
Dunn is a perplexing option. He should be better than he is, but control problems continue to come back and bite him. Additionally, he has problems getting through the sixth inning. That can put undue pressure on the bullpen.
The 26-year-old righty has plenty of ground to make up if he wants to be on the team on Opening Day. He’ll need to be the pitcher he was last May and keep himself in games longer.
This is a tough one because the Seattle Mariners shelled out so much for Robbie Ray. That’s why it’s hard to imagine Carlos Rodon, Clayton Kershaw, or Zack Greinke coming to the Emerald City. But Tyler Anderson is another story.
Anderson was okay with flashes of very good after he was traded to Seattle at the deadline. In his run from July 31 – August 22, the former Oregon Ducks star made five starts with a 3.00 ERA and yielded just three walks in 27 innings. But his overall numbers suggest he shouldn’t make more than the $3.05M Flexen gets this season. Then again, Seattle needs another lefty.
Other free agent starters to consider are Brett Anderson, former Seattle Mariner Michael Pineda, and Washington native Matthew Boyd. But the GM will need to get a discounted deal to bring any of those three to Seattle.
The trade front is even harder to predict. Part of that has to do with the lockout. While it continues, teams are not allowed to discuss players. Unless Trader Jerry had something cooking for a starter before the lockout started, it may be a while as teams assess their rosters after the second wave of free agents sign.
Mariners pitching coach Pete Woodworth did a masterful job with reclamation projects in the bullpen. Relievers Drew Steckenrider, Paul Sewald, Casey Sadler, JT Chargois, and Kendall Graveman all had outstanding years under his guidance.
Can he repeat that success with starters in 2022? If so, the M’s save money and can take on a contract mid-season.
The Mariners have one of the best farm systems in the game. Gilbert came up from the minors last season and staked his claim to a spot in the rotation. Even with his departure, the cupboard of highly regarded starter prospects is hardly bare. Four players top the list.
Seattle used a first round pick to select George Kirby from Elon College. Right now that’s looking like a good choice. He is the organization’s fourth-ranked prospect and is rapidly climbing through M’s minor league system. In 2021 Kirby pitched at High-A Everett and Double-A Arkansas, posting a combined 2.53 ERA and 1.079 WHIP.
Kirby has all the tools which include a triple-digit heater. His control continues to improve as experience catches up to his raw talent. Scouts love the way Kirby fools hitters with his changeup. The 23-year-old also throws a decent curveball and slider. One day he’ll be a top of the rotation guy, but for 2022, a spot in the bottom could work nicely as a stepping stone.
Another year, another college pitcher goes in the first round to Seattle. The M’s chose University of Georgia pitcher Emerson Hancock with the sixth overall pick in 2020. Due to the pandemic, last year was his first minor league season and that was cut short by shoulder issues.
When he did pitch last season, Hancock looked great. Maybe that has to do with the toolbox he has. Hancock throws two different fastballs that have their own break. He mixes those up with an outstanding curve and a slider that he uses as an out pitch. That probably won’t get him to the Bigs out of spring training because of the inexperience but he’ll make a run at it.
Of all the M’s young pitchers, Matt Brash might have the best shot at making the team this spring. Not bad for someone Dipoto got as a player to be named later in the 2020 deal that sent Taylor Williams to San Diego in 2020.
Brash, like Kirby and Hancock, split the season between Everett and Arkansas. The difference is that he excelled more than the others after his promotion. The Canadian import has a 95 MPH fastball, with great movement that will get him to the Majors one day. He used it to strike out 13.1 batters per 9 innings in 2021. His control needs work as does his secondary pitches.
With all the big names in the system, Juan Then tends to get overlooked. He is on the Mariners’ 40-man roster, so a call means they don’t need to place someone on waivers to clear a spot for him. But it would be a huge jump for Then to reach the Majors this season. He didn’t pitch well at High-A Evertt and then got blown up in the Arizona Fall League.
Then has a plus fastball, clocked at a high of 99 MPH. His slider is pretty good too. To be a legit MLB pitcher, Juan Then needs to develop a dependable third pitch. He throws a changeup but it’s a work in progress.
Where do you think the Seattle Mariners’ fifth and sixth starters will come for? Let us know in the comments section below or on social media.