Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners.
As negotiations continue between Major League Baseball and the Players Association drag on, teams can’t carry on with business as usual. That means the Seattle Mariners (and every other MLB team) can’t process trades, free agent signings, or transactions with players on the 40-man roster.
Fans can still talk about baseball. Coming off a 90-win season and near playoff appearance, the Seattle Mariners rebuild is about over and the next phase, contending for the championship, is underway. M’s fans have questions about the upcoming season. The are plenty of scenarios in play and we take on three of them today.
What a great predicament for manager Scott Servais and GM Jerry Dipoto.
Let’s start with Kyle Lewis. Before his knee injuries, last season, K-Lew was trending toward a 25-30 home run and 80+ RBI per season player. There isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t want that kind of production in their lineup.
Even though Lewis is the team’s best defensive center fielder, he would see increased time at DH. Servais has to rest him more often to cut down on the wear and tear. An outfield of Mitch Haniger, Lewis, and a rapidly improving Jarred Kelenic with Jake Fraley as the alternate is very formidable.
In 2022, Seattle has more “bats” in the lineup to protect him. That means teams can’t pitch around him like they did his rookie year. M’s fans saw what Lewis could do when he’s locked in.
Evan White‘s defense at first base is unquestioned. His presence makes everybody in the infield better. That’s not a knock on Ty France, who was excellent there last season after White’s injury.
But how many times have Seattle Mariners fans wished that Evan White could hit his weight (220) instead of 50 or more points below it? What would the M’s have then?
For the sake of argument, the .220 batting average, 20 home run version of Evan White shows up at spring training this year (hopefully with fewer strikeouts). That guy gets a starting job. France can move to second or third base to keep his bat in the lineup. Abraham Toro and Adam Frazier can alternate at the other spot.
White still has four years, $19.4M left on his contract. The way he hit his first two seasons, White has no trade value. If he can hit .220, the Dipoto has something to work with (depending on how much money the M’s kick in).
Going back to the first question, this is a great problem to have. According to all the prospect rankings, Julio Rodriguez is the Seattle Mariners’ next great homegrown talent. He has the potential to put up Ken Griffey Jr.-like production in the M’s outfield.
Even if J-Rod kills it in spring training, he’s headed for Tacoma. Lost in the hype of Rodriguez being a 21-year-old phenom is that he’s 21 with just over 200 games of minor league experience and only 46 at the Double-A level. He needs more seasoning. Starting him with the Rainiers also gives Dipoto some time to wheel and deal.
The better question is, what happens if Rodriguez produces at Tacoma this year the way he did at Arkansas in 2021? It’s a more realistic expectation than him breaking camp with the team.
In that scenario, J-Rod gets a mid-season call-up for his first taste of The Show. It also presents a slight lineup problem that isn’t four outfielders for three spots. If there are no major injuries, aside from Kelenic, Toro/Frazier, and possibly catcher Cal Raleigh, as part of a platoon with Tom Murphy (R), Seattle’s lineup is overloaded with right-handed bats.
Out of Seattle’s lefty or switch hitters, only Kelenic is a legitimate power bat to put in the middle of the order. The Mariners and especially Rodriguez will see a steady stream of right-handed pitchers. Someone has to go in a trade for a lefty. The most likely candidates are Haniger or Lewis.
None of the above includes Dipoto’s pursuit and hopefully signing of third baseman Kris Bryant, who is also a righty.
First, a quick recap of last season.
Team management deserves some props for the 2021 relievers. Between Dipoto’s acquisition of talent (on the cheap), Servais’ use of that talent, and pitching coach Pete Woodworth’s development of it, last year’s relief staff was outstanding.
As a group, the bullpen’s numbers speak for themselves. Mariners relievers had a
No one expected the outstanding performances Seattle got from retreads Drew Steckenrider, Paul Sewald, Casey Sadler, and JT Chargois. The staff is deep again in 2022. Steckenrider, Sewald, and Sadler are back. Although putting up the stats they did last season will be hard to repeat, but not impossible.
Even if those three can’t pitch as effectively in 2022, there is more in the cupboard. Between Erik Swanson, Diego Castillo, Anthony Misiewicz, Yohan Ramirez, Andres Munoz, and Ken Giles, two or three of them can produce to last season’s bullpen levels.
Then again, they may not have to; that’s the other part. The deeper Mariners’ starters can pitch into games; the less, Servais has to use his pen. Logan Gilbert‘s continued development and adding defending American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray should translate to a lighter load for the relievers.
To answer the original question, the 2022 bullpen might not be as awesome as the 2021 version, but a fall from top five to top ten is acceptable. The starters should go deeper into games this season, and there are enough quality arms in the pen to be effective over fewer innings.
One other thing to consider, Dipoto isn’t done adding to the roster, so even more help could be on the way.
Do you have a Seattle Mariners “what if” for 2022? Ask us in the comments section below.