Diego Castillo, Seattle Mariners.
Analytics changed sports. Maybe the sport most impacted by analytics is Major League Baseball. Coaches are now pulling starting pitchers earlier in games. Even if the pitcher is throwing a gem, like a perfect game or no-hitter. For some fans, it makes logical sense. For others, it triggers their anger and hatred towards how baseball has been ruined by analytics. The Seattle Mariners aren’t known as an analytics-heavy team but are at the forefront of a growing trend.
There are a few teams that at various points in their team history have been the face of analytics. First, it was the Oakland A’s with Billy Beane’s Sabermetrics. Highlighted by their 2002 team and the movie Moneyball. More recently, it’s the Tampa Bay Rays. Their use of analytics helps them compete with the rest of the big-spending American League East.
Last year Tampa Bay had 14 different players record a save. Their main “closer” Diego Castillo led the team with 14 and he was traded at the deadline to the Seattle Mariners! The previous year they had 12 different players earn a save. Tampa Bay won the AL East last year. When was the last time a division champ traded their closer at the deadline?
In 2021 the LA Dodgers and San Francisco Giants tied with a league-leading 56 saves. The Dodgers had 10 different players get a save. However, Kenley Jansen paced the team with 38 saves (tied for second in the MLB). The next closest was Blake Treinen with seven. For the Giants, they had eight different players earn a save. However, Jake McGee led them with 31 saves (eighth in the MLB). Unlike their rival Dodgers, their second-leading saves getter, Tyler Rogers, earned 13 saves.
So, what about the guy who lead the league in saves last year? That player would be Mark Melancon, who saved 39 games for the San Diego Padres (or the AAAA farm team of the Seattle Mariners). The Padres only had five guys get a save and besides Melancon, nobody else got more than one.
According to Baseball-Reference, the league average MLB team had 40 saves. An important note is this is for a team and not a player. In 2021, 16 teams saved 40 games or more. Three teams came one save away from reaching that total. Also, there were 39 relief pitchers who earned 10 saves.
In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the league average saves for an MLB team was 14. There were 15 teams that saved 14 or more games. Also, there were 10 relievers who earned 10 saves or more. Finally, going back to 2019, the league average for saves was 37 and there were 15 teams who achieved that mark or more. Maybe more interesting is the fact that 37 relief pitchers earned 10 saves or more.
So, what do we make of this data? There are some interesting notes. The last three World Series champions convert around 60 percent of their save opportunities, feature one dominant guy as the team’s closer and only allow on average five guys to earn a save. Circling back to Tampa Bay, over the last three years, they’re converted on average 67 percent of the games that they had a save opportunity. Over that same time frame, 37 different Rays’ relievers earned at least one save. Subsequently, that is the most by a team that has been above league average in saves.
In that time frame, Tampa Bay is averaging 78.7 wins and 49.3 losses. The Rays went to the playoffs all three times, winning two division titles and getting to the World Series once. So, this formula works.
Do MLB teams still need one guy to lock down the saves in order for the team to have success? The simple answer is no. A more in-depth look reveals more data to back up this claim. Over the last three years, there are 11 teams who had more than one reliever earn double-digit saves.
Of those 11 teams, only four of them missed the playoffs. The 2019 Arizona Diamondbacks and 2021 Seattle Mariners are the only winning teams to miss the playoffs while the other two teams finished below .500.
Last year’s Seattle Mariners were the only team to save 50 games on the year and NOT make the playoffs. The other three, St. Louis, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco went on to make the playoffs. Interestingly, the Dodgers were the only team, of this bunch, who had one relief pitcher get double-digit saves. Consequently, they were the team who had the most relief pitchers get a save though.
Something that is coming out of all of this is the rise of the “fireman”. The fireman is the term I use to describe the relief pitcher who can come into any high-leverage situation and get out of it unscathed. For example, the opponent has a runner or two in scoring position with one out or less and his team up only one or two runs. Not every reliever can come through in the clutch.
A position that has increased in importance is the aforementioned fireman.
For the past few decades, MLB clubs operated under the guidance of saving their closer for the ninth inning or later. More teams are searching for someone they can use in any clutch situation. The player who best exemplifies this and made this role come to prominence is Andrew Miller.
Using a pitching value metric, game-entering Leverage Index (gmLI). The metric is based on the average of each appearance’s opening leverage index, weighted by the batters faced in that outing. Or the average pressure a pitcher saw in a game or season. One is average. Below one is low pressure and above one is high pressure.
So with that information established, we can more accurately view Miller’s rise. From 2014 to 2020, seven seasons, he has a gmLI of 1.32 or higher, including his postseason appearances; and his career gmLI is 1.39. Speaking of his postseason, this is where he really gained fame and notoriety.
He has a career 0.93 ERA and 0.853 WHIP in 11 postseason series. Only twice did he register an ERA over ZERO in a series. This led to him signing a two-year $25M contract with St. Louis. That’s pretty big money to a guy who can enter a game in say the sixth inning where there isn’t a save situation. However, a game’s outcome can still be impacted in this spot. A team having a Miller type to pair with their shutdown closer and eighth inning guy is what teams are now searching for.
In Scott Servais’ first few years as the Seattle Mariners skipper, he used a traditional bullpen style; one closer and a setup man. The two seasons prior to 2021 he started to evolve. Granted some of that was out of circumstance. The team didn’t have many good options and the good ones they did have were traded away to help the Seattle Mariners in the future.
Last year was different. Servais went into the year with the notion that he’d have one guy be his closer, Rafael Montero. As previously mentioned, the team ended the year with three different relievers having 10 saves or more.
At the end of the year, Servais utilized a trio of relief pitchers to close out games, Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, and Diego Castillo. On any given night one of these three would be called on to either close out a game or get the Seattle Mariners out of a tight jam. The fact that Servais had three reliable relief pitchers to effectively end games allowed him to lean on his bullpen.
Going into 2022, the Seattle Mariners will continue having a strong bullpen. It was one of the strengths at the end of the 2021 season. Castilo, Steckenrider, and Sewald will all be back a part of the pen next year. They’ll be accompanied by Casey Sadler, Erik Swanson, Andres Munoz, and Ken Giles. If the main trio can repeat their 2021 success, Giles can return to form (or close to it) and Munoz can live up to the hype, Servais will have a lot more reliable options to end ball games. It will also allow Servais to better utilize his relievers to maximize their success.
What do you think about the Seattle Mariners’ contribution to the death of the traditional closer? Let us know in the comments section below.