Seattle Mariners.
Seattle Mariners, Evan White.
After struggling to an 8–19 start, it looked like the Seattle Mariners 60-game mini-season would turn into a repeating loop of despair. However, this team didn’t let their poor beginnings hold them back. They went on an 11–3 run in mid-August to put themselves back in contention for a postseason berth.
Unfortunately, that roll was short-lived. Seattle dropped seven of their next 10, primarily to San Francisco and San Diego, eliminating them from contention. As they did before, the Mariners rallied.
They went 4–3 against the top two teams in their division, Houston and Oakland, to finish the season. The M’s finished third in the AL West, just a pair of games behind H-Town for a spot in the expanded playoffs. A break here or there, a little more experienced, and some good health, or any combination of the three and the Mariners might still be playing now. Not bad for a team predicted by many to finish dead last.
It was a learning experience for this young team in 2020. Along the way, there were injuries, trades, in addition to plenty of feel-good moments to give fans hope. Not only the fans think good times are close at hand. Mariners General Manager Jerry Dipoto said this week that he expects the M’s to compete for a playoff spot next season.
That isn’t just blowing smoke. Top prospect Jarred Kelenic will be up next year, and all indications are that Mitch Haniger will return after sitting out this season due to injury.
Here are five lessons from the recent upstart season to make the Seattle Mariners faithful look forward to 2021.
Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners.
Mariners fans don’t need me to tell them Kyle Lewis is the real deal. 2020’s should-be American League Rookie of the Year was a revelation to those who don’t follow the team. What he did last September was a huge clue as to what he could accomplish in 2021.
Before the short season began, I reviewed quite a bit of video on Lewis. I remember thinking, if he could show just a little more patience at the plate, he’d be an all-star. Well, he upped his on-base percentage from .293 to .364.
Obviously, as the team’s best hitter, he was pitched around quite a bit. But Lewis also didn’t chase pitches out of the zone as much as he’d done before. Also, Lewis hit for a .341 average on balls he put in play. Imagine what Lewis could do if Seattle had a few other legitimate offensive threats in the lineup so pitchers would have to face him.
Even without many runners on base ahead of him or support behind him, Lewis put up outstanding numbers. He hit .265 with 11 home runs (T17th in AL), 37 runs scored (T 11th), .801 OPS (25th), 126 OPS+ (20th).
Not only did the rookie shine at the plate, but he also played strong defensive centerfield. At times it was Griffey Jr.-esque. Lewis is a legitimate five-tool player and will improve as the team improves.
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners. (Photo by Blake Handley, via Flickr)
All good things must come to an end. In this case, it’s time for the Seattle Mariners to part ways with Kyle Seager. For the last ten seasons, he has been the team’s rock. Unfortunately, at 33 years old with an $18M price tag, he’s a luxury the Mariners can’t afford.
While some teams like the Yankees and Dodgers can afford to spend on contracts and say the heck with the luxury tax, at least a third of the league is in the opposite position. They work with internal budget restrictions. Seager’s contract eats up over 15 percent of the Mariners payroll.
That is too much money and too big a chunk of salary allocation for a player who hasn’t hit better than .250 since 2016 and had one season with an OPS over .790 once. DiPoto missed a huge opportunity to sell high on the third baseman at the July 31 trade deadline. On that day, his slash line was .290/.361/.516/.877.
From August 1 to the end of the season, his number dropped to .233/.354/.419/.772. Worse, his batting average after August 31 was a dismal .188. If he didn’t get hit by a pitch five times, his OPS would have taken a serious nosedive.
Ty France, acquired from San Diego in the Austin Nola trade, hit .305 last year with a solid glove. While he might not have as much pop as Seager, he projects as a 20 home run per season hitter. The position is covered moving forward.
Even if Dipoto has to eat a little money or add a mid-level prospect as a sweetener to make a deal possible, it’s time for Seager to move on.
In addition to Seager, there is another tenured and popular Seattle Mariners player who shouldn’t be back next season. The M’s have a $1M buyout option on Dee Strange-Gordon. They have to use it because when it comes to bang for the buck, Gordon is due for big bucks ($14M in 2021), but his .482 OPS in 2020 shows there is absolutely no bang behind them.
Don’t expect the Mariners to re-sign relief pitcher Yoshihisa Hirano, either. The 36-year old was brutal in September. Servais handed him the closer role in September to which Hirano responded with an 8.64 ERA. 2.59 WHIP, and 1.098 OPS against. It would be a huge surprise if he got another chance to pitch in the Majors next year.
Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners.
This team needs a bonafide ace. A pitcher that other teams don’t want to face. Marco Gonzales isn’t that guy. Gonzales was excellent in 2020 with a 7-2 record and 3.10 ERA in 11 starts. There are absolutely no complaints about his work this season.
For as well as he performed, Gonzales isn’t a number one starter on a playoff-caliber team. Opponents don’t fear playing against him. No doubt, Gonzales has the goods to be a second or third pitcher in the rotation, but not an ace.
Help is on the way from the farm system. Recent draft picks Logan Gilbert, and Emerson Hancock have the stuff to be top of the rotation starters. Both are at the least a year away from cracking the Majors.
Looking at the next few free agent classes in terms of age and ability, Trevor Bauer could be the Seattle Mariners ace until the younger pitchers in the organization are ready to assume the mantle. A rotation of Bauer, Gonzales, Justus Sheffield, Yusei Kikuchi, and Justin Dunn could border on top tier next season. Bauer will be available this winter. After him, the rest of this class and the next one don’t offer as much value.
The question is can DiPoto get Bauer for under $25M per season and less than five years. Unless Seattle wants to gamble on a pitcher with an injury history (i.e. James Paxton) or someone that’s a little past his prime (i.e. Max Scherzer), they won’t find a better ace on the market.
Yoshihasi Hirano, Seattle Mariners.
In the modern game, starters don’t often go more than six or seven innings. Now more than ever, quality relief pitching is crucial. The Seattle Mariners learned that lesson the hard way in 2020.
It didn’t help manager Scott Servais that Carl Edwards Jr., Matt Magill, and Austin Adams all missed significant time with injuries. What remained was a hodge-podge of has-beens and never were pitchers. How bad was the Seattle Mariners bullpen? These numbers tell the sad story.
That last number really stings. For a team that finished two games out of a playoff spot, they dropped over five games more than they would have league average relief pitching.
The only Seattle Mariners reliever with an ERA under 3.00 with double-digit innings pitched was Rule- 5 pickup Yohan Ramirez (2.61). Meanwhile, six Seattle relief pitchers with double-digit innings pitched had an ERA over 5.00, including two that were over 6.10.
The two most demoralizing things a team faces during the season, especially a young one, are losing leads and getting blown out. Both of those things happened with the group of relievers Seattle used in 2020. It’s a necessity for DiPoto to bring in a few quality arms to bolster the bullpen.
Shed Long Jr., Seattle Mariners.
So far, I haven’t been impressed with Shed Long Jr. There is some potential there. Potential doesn’t win ball games, production does. This summer, Long was given plenty of opportunities to succeed before he went on the injured list in early September. By then, however, he had fallen out of favor with manager Scott Servais.
Dylan Moore can fill the position very well. After a season where he was second on the Seattle Mariners with a .855 OPS and led the team with 12 stolen bases, Moore earned his chance to be an everyday player. Additionally, Seattle struggled with getting the leadoff batter on base this year. Moore’s .358 On Base Percentage is a big step in the right direction.
In the field, Moore’s advanced metrics in Zone Runs Saved were better than Long’s this year. He can do the job. Considering the outfield, where Moore spent most of his time, could get crowded with the arrival of Kelenic as well as Haniger’s expected return, second base is the best option to keep his productive bat in the lineup every day.
Even if the Seattle Mariners brass doesn’t believe Moore is the best option at second, there is also France. As the season wound down, Service used the deadline acquisition more and more at second. It isn’t France’s best position, but his production at the plate justifies using him there.
What are some of your takeaways from the Seattle Mariners 2020 season? Let us know in the comments section below or on social media.