Ty France, Seattle Mariners.
Sports betting has exploded in recent years. Fans can find odds or lines on almost any game and player. PNWS dug up some interesting Seattle Mariners proposition and futures bets for 2022 on the internet. We then asked our baseball writers, Joe Swenson, Ed Stein, and Chip Clark, to break it down for our readers.
Joe: Over. Based on the analytics as well as projected growth and an increased liability in the field (both Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker are negative value fielders), this team tops out in the 89-92 win window.
Ed: Over. The Mariners should win at least as that many if not more games. They won 90 games last season and greatly improved their defense and starting rotation. Also, LAA should be slightly better, Houston worse, Oakland much worse, and any improvements made by Texas won’t offset the increased loss totals of the two previous teams.
Chip: Over. But not by much. I think the Mariners were their own worst enemy in 2021. But they also had a -50 run differential or 0.31 runs per game. Their team is better, but logically if they erase the deficit, that makes Seattle a .500 outfit.
Joe: Over. With new power in the outfield (Jesse Winker) and maintaining power numbers at 3B with Eugenio Suarez, the M’s figure to be in the mix for 200+ home runs.
Breaking it down; 35+ for Suarez and Haniger. 25+ for Winker and possibly Ty France. 15+ for Jarred Kenic, Throw in the catchers along with minimal contributions from J.P. Crawford (10-15), Todd Frazier (10-15), and your baseline power number runs at 170-200. From there, add in a few more homers from Abraham Toro, Dylan Moore, and hopefully J-Rod, and the Seattle Mariners break 200.
Ed: Over. Even without Kyle Seager‘s 35 home runs, the M’s should blow 199 out of the water. Either Eugenio Suarez or Jessie Winker will equal what Seager did last year. Then they still have what the other new slugger does. Don’t forget that Kyle Lewis should have more than 147 at bats in 2022 to hit bombs.
Chip: Push. What bothers me is the alarming amount of strikeouts this team will again have. Without base runners and pitchers knowing Seattle batters will chase, how many good pitches will they see?
Joe: Over. The big question marks for Seattle’s pitching staff are: will Robbie Ray perform anywhere close to his 2021 Cy Young? And will Logan Gilbert progress based on his stellar final month of the 2021 season?
Couple in one of MLB’s best bullpens when you’re ahead, and the recipe for an under is there. However, the M’s will again struggle in middle-relief, and spot starts with Sheffield and crew manning the innings eating portion of games.
Ed: Over. Ray may be an ace and put up a 2.84 earned run average, but his career ERA is 4.00. The bullpen can’t possibly be as good as it was last year. For those reasons, unfortunately, Seattle’s ERA should push 4.50.
Chip: Under. Success builds on success. Last year’s bullpen welcomes the additions of Andres Munoz and Ken Giles. I also believe that Logan Gilbert greatly improves over his rookie year production. Finally, Marco Gonzales‘s injuries problems from 2021 are over, and his ERA will drop closer to 3.50.
Over/Under 20.5 HR and .250 batting average.
Under. I hope Jarred Kelenic progresses faster than expected and clears .250 and 20+ home runs. The cynic in me says his lack of confidence will produce a slightly below-average performance in 2022.
If he gets off to a tough start again, you could see him regress all the way back to Triple-A, which will eat into his accumulating statistics. A .237 average and 17 home runs is my projection for Kelenic. That makes both statistics an under.
Over/Under 11 wins.
Over. Robbie Ray better be over. Last season’s American League Cy Young Award winner is the Seattle Mariners’ biggest free agent signing in years. I have Ray hovering around 15 wins. Chris Flexen had 14 of Seattle’s 90 wins in 2021 over 31 starts. Provided he stays healthy; Ray should win at least half his starts.
234.5 strikeouts.
Under. In 2021, Ray had a career season. He struck out 248 batters in 193.1 innings for 11.5 K/9. That wasn’t his best K/9 season, but his control was better than it ever was. He threw fewer pitches by keeping the walks down, allowing him to stay in games longer. It’s unlikely Ray can repeat it, and Scott Servais isn’t known for leaving his pitchers in too long.
85.5 RBI.
Over. It’s a little funny that in a year Mitch Haniger was supposed to slowly come back (2021) from almost two seasons away due to injury; he played more than he ever did in the past. As a result, “Meetch” set career highs in at bats (620), home runs (39), runs (110), and RBI (100). It’s hard to see Haniger’s production with runners on base drop by almost 15 percent,
30.5 HR.
Under. Or at least, I’m hoping for under. I’d like to see Haniger go under because he hits for a higher average and utilizes the gaps more; think David Wright. 28 seems like a good number for him to reach.
Eugenio Suarez, 29.5 Home Runs.
Over. Suarez had his worst year as a pro in 2021, and he still hit 31 jacks. New season, new team, new league, same great power. With more designated hitter opportunities than he’s ever had, Suarez easily clears 30.
Jesse Winker, 70.5 RBI.
Over. 2021 was the first time Winker broke 70. In Cincinnati, he batted leadoff often (127 times in 423 games). With the Seattle Mariners, Winker can expect to be a mid-lineup fixture. He’ll have more opportunities to drive in runs with the M’s.
Ty France, 75.5 RBI.
Over. Ty France is the Mariners’ best hitter. He has more talent around him in the order than he ever has. That will lead to driving in more runs.
Marco Gonzales, 10 Wins.
To get to where the Seattle Mariners want to go, they need Marco Gonzales to have more than 10 wins. He had 10 over 25 starts last year. With 30 or more starts, 11 should be in his wheelhouse.
A few other interesting futures bets are on the board. This section is an FYI, so we won’t make picks.
Seattle Mariners odds to reach playoffs: -215 No, 175 Yes.
Seattle Mariners odds to win A.L. West: +450
Seattle Mariners odds to reach World Series: +1400
Seattle Mariners odds to win World Series: +3300
Julio Rodriguez – A.L. Rookie of the Year: +375
Robbie Ray – A.L. Cy Young: +1200
Jesse Winker – A.L. Most Valuable Player: +5000
Will you put money on the Seattle Mariners this year? Let us know in the comments section below.