Seattle Mariners: 2022 Prop and Futures Guide
Jarred Kelenic (Joe)
Over/Under 20.5 HR and .250 batting average.
Under. I hope Jarred Kelenic progresses faster than expected and clears .250 and 20+ home runs. The cynic in me says his lack of confidence will produce a slightly below-average performance in 2022.
If he gets off to a tough start again, you could see him regress all the way back to Triple-A, which will eat into his accumulating statistics. A .237 average and 17 home runs is my projection for Kelenic. That makes both statistics an under.
.@jarredkelenic wanted in on the HR party. #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/VnXrnimBIS
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) April 3, 2022
Robbie Ray (Ed)
Over/Under 11 wins.
Over. Robbie Ray better be over. Last season’s American League Cy Young Award winner is the Seattle Mariners’ biggest free agent signing in years. I have Ray hovering around 15 wins. Chris Flexen had 14 of Seattle’s 90 wins in 2021 over 31 starts. Provided he stays healthy; Ray should win at least half his starts.
234.5 strikeouts.
Under. In 2021, Ray had a career season. He struck out 248 batters in 193.1 innings for 11.5 K/9. That wasn’t his best K/9 season, but his control was better than it ever was. He threw fewer pitches by keeping the walks down, allowing him to stay in games longer. It’s unlikely Ray can repeat it, and Scott Servais isn’t known for leaving his pitchers in too long.
Mitch Haniger (Chip)
85.5 RBI.
Over. It’s a little funny that in a year Mitch Haniger was supposed to slowly come back (2021) from almost two seasons away due to injury; he played more than he ever did in the past. As a result, “Meetch” set career highs in at bats (620), home runs (39), runs (110), and RBI (100). It’s hard to see Haniger’s production with runners on base drop by almost 15 percent,
30.5 HR.
Under. Or at least, I’m hoping for under. I’d like to see Haniger go under because he hits for a higher average and utilizes the gaps more; think David Wright. 28 seems like a good number for him to reach.