Seattle Mariners 2022 Projections featuring The Art of WAR
2022 Seattle Mariners
Based on fWAR, the Seattle Mariners will have zero All-Stars. Obviously, that’s not true, as, by rule, every team has at least one All-Star. But based on Fangraphs version of WAR, the Mariners have many expendable pieces, but then again, none. Using projections, Robbie Ray is the closest to an All-Star Seattle has at 3.8. The Mariners pitching staff projects at 12.9, while the offense projects at 17.8. Putting the numbers together brings the team to a 30.7 fWAR.
An 80 win total isn’t terrible, and it’s a better WAR than last year’s team. Right now, that’s where Fangraphs projects. The problem for Seattle Mariners General Manager Jerry Dipoto is how he adds WAR to a team with so many 1.3 – 2.7 players. Based purely on projected WAR, the biggest holes are closer, catcher, left field, and backend of the rotation (specifically the fifth spot).
Fangraphs projects most of the Mariners players to finish the 2022 season worse than they did in 2021. Some of that is the prognosticator’s desire to correct what he saw as a lucky win total in 2021. Tiptoeing down the statistical rabbit hole, Ty France had the best WAR at 4.3 on the entire team. He’s projected to finish with 1.4 in 2022. Mitch Haniger was 3.1, projected at 2.4. J.P. Crawford finished with a 3.8 in 2021 projects out to have the highest WAR in 2022 at 2.7.
Definitely suspicious that the entire team regresses, although their performance in 2021 was that of a 76 win team. Same situation with pitching. What does this mean? It still means the 2022 Mariners are two to three pieces away from being a perennial powerhouse.
Working with what’s in hand
Low hanging fruit to improve WAR would be starting pitching. Bringing in another quality arm that produces knocks Justin Dunn (0.4 projected WAR) out of the rotation and into the bullpen (maybe).
Improving the M’s catching platoon of Cal Raleigh and Tom Murphy (combined 1.3 WAR) is important, but there’s not a lot out there. Most MLB catching situations are in the same boat.
Next, the Seattle Mariners get the same or better performance from incumbent players. From a wish list standpoint, I’ll take the same performance from France, JP, Mitch, and Luis Torrens (offensively), as well as Abraham Toro‘s August.
On the subject of improvement, Jarred Kelenic (even better than September’s performance) is first, followed by Raleigh and Murphy. Then I’ll take the same performance or even a slight regression from our newest Mariners, Ray and Adam Frazier.
The “Next One”
Julio Rodriguez is projected by fWAR to carry a 3.3 WAR. In the history of Fangraphs, they have projected a 3+ WAR 19 times (goes back to 2014) for players 22 and younger. 14 of the 15 players (some had multiple projections) became stars. Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Carlos Correa, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., etc., are household names. J-Rod is projected to have a 3.3 WAR in 2022. That’s a two-win improvement by moving Kelenic to left field and putting Rodriguez in Center Field.
If the Mariners can get that out of the players they have, then Seattle will quickly become a destination team for Free Agents. Finally, the M’s playoff drought can be a thing of the past.