Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs came out with their predictions for the 2022 Seattle Mariners. Luckily Pacific Northwest Sports has its own stat guru to break it down.
If you like rabbit holes and statistics, then I have the ultimate rabbit hole for you to go down. But you really have to like statistics, understand statistics, and be able to think in complexity. Also, do you like humor or, more specifically, roasting those that think too simply? Then you’re going to enjoy this article about the Seattle Mariners 2022 projections.
We start by quickly understanding what WAR (Wins Above Replacement) really is. The baseline is different than you think. The simple thinker, a basic fan, believes that WAR is based on average performance at the Major League level. They believe this because their friend thinks this, and some random guy thinks this, and well, quite simply, the words involved in WAR leave it ambiguous.
There are some wonderful articles out there that lead you astray as well. The part that is clear is that the baseline is the replacement player. Think AAAA (that’s four A’s) quality, the player who is too good for Triple-A but not consistent enough for regular MLB duty. Another simple thought is that if a team has an average WAR of 0.0, then that team should be projected to be 81-81. However, that once again is something made up or something someone told you. In fact, it’s nearly impossible to figure out the baseline wins and losses for a team based on WAR. Nearly impossible being the key phrase.
Most statisticians put an entire team of QUAD-A players at around 50 wins. The Mariners had a combined 26 fWAR in 2021 (hitters were 11.3 and pitchers were 14.6). The f is silent but stands for Fangraphs version of WAR. By comparison, the Houston Astros finished six games ahead of the Mariners in 2021 but finished 24 fWAR ahead of the Mariners at 50 fWAR.
Equating wins specifically to a team using WAR isn’t appropriate because it’s dumb. The worst argument any fan could ever get into is one where they are using WAR as their backing data to establish actual wins.
Complexity is required for a deeper dive into the rabbit hole of sabermetrics, the building blocks of WAR. Now is the time to choose. Do you take the blue pill and forget that this article even exists. Or, do you take the red pill and walk through the mirror and into a truly complex world of statistics.
If you’re still reading, then you have taken the red pill. Alice and Neo would be so proud. One of the reasons the Seattle Mariners outperformed their WAR (allegedly by 14 wins) is that WAR is an accumulative statistic and not an average. The accumulation is based on run production, which the Mariners weren’t very good at, especially considering they had a -56 run differential in 2021.
It takes into consideration all aspects of run production. Since baseball is a game where one team is trying to outscore the other team, runs scored, runs created, runs saved, etc. is a great place to build into a successful team.
Ideally, the higher WAR you have, the more likely a team is to score runs, prevent runs, and win games. Because WAR is an accumulative statistic, the more contributions made, the higher the WAR will be. The highest oWAR (Offensive statistics only) in history was 12.4 from Barry Bonds in 2001, followed by Babe Ruth’s 12.3. Mike Trout is the only player to break 10 oWAR in the last decade (2013).
Let’s go a little further before I get to the Mariner’s projections. Baseball-Reference (I frequent click mileage on their website) views an 8+ WAR as an MVP-level candidate, a 5-8 WAR as an All-Star, a 2+ WAR as a starter, a 0-2 WAR as a Sub, and a negative WAR as replaceable. Wait, did I just simplify it? I didn’t, Baseball-Reference did, but that is a simpler way to look at it.
Based on fWAR, the Seattle Mariners will have zero All-Stars. Obviously, that’s not true, as, by rule, every team has at least one All-Star. But based on Fangraphs version of WAR, the Mariners have many expendable pieces, but then again, none. Using projections, Robbie Ray is the closest to an All-Star Seattle has at 3.8. The Mariners pitching staff projects at 12.9, while the offense projects at 17.8. Putting the numbers together brings the team to a 30.7 fWAR.
An 80 win total isn’t terrible, and it’s a better WAR than last year’s team. Right now, that’s where Fangraphs projects. The problem for Seattle Mariners General Manager Jerry Dipoto is how he adds WAR to a team with so many 1.3 – 2.7 players. Based purely on projected WAR, the biggest holes are closer, catcher, left field, and backend of the rotation (specifically the fifth spot).
Fangraphs projects most of the Mariners players to finish the 2022 season worse than they did in 2021. Some of that is the prognosticator’s desire to correct what he saw as a lucky win total in 2021. Tiptoeing down the statistical rabbit hole, Ty France had the best WAR at 4.3 on the entire team. He’s projected to finish with 1.4 in 2022. Mitch Haniger was 3.1, projected at 2.4. J.P. Crawford finished with a 3.8 in 2021 projects out to have the highest WAR in 2022 at 2.7.
Definitely suspicious that the entire team regresses, although their performance in 2021 was that of a 76 win team. Same situation with pitching. What does this mean? It still means the 2022 Mariners are two to three pieces away from being a perennial powerhouse.
Low hanging fruit to improve WAR would be starting pitching. Bringing in another quality arm that produces knocks Justin Dunn (0.4 projected WAR) out of the rotation and into the bullpen (maybe).
Improving the M’s catching platoon of Cal Raleigh and Tom Murphy (combined 1.3 WAR) is important, but there’s not a lot out there. Most MLB catching situations are in the same boat.
Next, the Seattle Mariners get the same or better performance from incumbent players. From a wish list standpoint, I’ll take the same performance from France, JP, Mitch, and Luis Torrens (offensively), as well as Abraham Toro‘s August.
On the subject of improvement, Jarred Kelenic (even better than September’s performance) is first, followed by Raleigh and Murphy. Then I’ll take the same performance or even a slight regression from our newest Mariners, Ray and Adam Frazier.
Julio Rodriguez is projected by fWAR to carry a 3.3 WAR. In the history of Fangraphs, they have projected a 3+ WAR 19 times (goes back to 2014) for players 22 and younger. 14 of the 15 players (some had multiple projections) became stars. Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Carlos Correa, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., etc., are household names. J-Rod is projected to have a 3.3 WAR in 2022. That’s a two-win improvement by moving Kelenic to left field and putting Rodriguez in Center Field.
If the Mariners can get that out of the players they have, then Seattle will quickly become a destination team for Free Agents. Finally, the M’s playoff drought can be a thing of the past.
If Seattle acquires a pitcher like Zack Greinke (3+ projected WAR for 2022) and promotes J-Rod to the outfield out of spring training (3+ projected WAR in 2022). That gets them to around 35 combined WAR.
Next up is adding a third baseman. Toro doesn’t project as a 2+ WAR, which leaves him in the category of substitute or utility players. Among the free agents left Kris Bryant projects to be a 3+ WAR, Carlos Correa projects to be a 5+ WAR, and Trevor Story projects to be a 2+ WAR.
Acquiring Kris Bryant should be the top priority. He’s the only one that actually plays third base and is a big upgrade over Toro. If that doesn’t work, Dipoto has to figure out how to acquire Story and move Frazier to the hot corner. Trevor Story’s value at second base is much stronger than it is at third base.
Adding Correa is risky because Crawford has already been guaranteed the shortstop job for 2022. One of the two would be out of position at third. The impact of adding Correa puts the Mariners in a nearly 40 accumulative WAR. Teams that do that are usually considered “good.” Last year, the Blue Jays were the only team with a 40+ WAR that didn’t make the playoffs.
Unless Ken Giles reverts to his pre-Tommy John self after missing almost two seasons, the Seattle Mariners need a closer. That task will be near impossible without making some trades. That’s always a possibility with Trader Jerry, and closers usually don’t command a lot in return. That is unless they are Heathcliff Slocum and the M’s trade away someone who became one of the greatest catchers in Red Sox history (Jason Varitek) and an underrated story in Derek Lowe.
There you have it. We followed the Rabbit Hole and ironically came to the same conclusion that everyone has said all along, the M’s are okay, maybe above mediocre right now. However, they still need another impact arm and a third baseman. Call up J-Rod, and find a closer. Once that’s done, the Mariners could project as a 90 win team, which has never happened during the fWAR era (Since 2014).
Joe Swenson loves baseball and statistics, and that’s pretty much all you need to know about him. But if you must know more, check out www.joeswensonauthor.weebly.com.