Seattle Mariners.
Seattle Mariners opening day is a week away. The team’s rebuild should continue its upward trend in 2021 behind some exciting rookies and key offseason additions. We gave our Pacific Northwest Sports baseball writers 10 numbers or dates, and they gave their opinions as to whether the team or specific player will go over or under. Play along and see if you agree or disagree.
It better be over, or manager Scott Servais will be out of a job, and all the goodwill GM Jerry Dipoto built with patient M’s fans disappears. Actually, Seattle should be at least a .500 team. They’ll pick up games for two reasons. First, the young players have more experience and know what to expect. Second, the AL West isn’t as good as it was the last two seasons. The one bad schedule break they have is the AL West is matched up with the NL West in interleague play. The M’s face maybe the two best National League teams, Los Angeles and San Diego, four times each.
I’m going over. I’ve been bullish on the success of the Mariners all this offseason. I’ve said the M’s could finish as high as first in the division if everything breaks right. But they are most likely to finish second or third in the AL West and be in contention for a wild card spot. I can even see them being in the wild card too. It’s going to be a good year for the M’s faithful.
It has to be over. Winning 72.5 games is only a .448 percentage. At a minimum, I have to believe the Mariners are close to a .500 team.
The number is a good one, but with Marco Gonzales (63% winning percentage) and James Paxton (65% winning percentage), you have the potential for 30+ wins between the two of these pitchers. Throw in Sheffield’s improvements, and you could have 40+ wins from three starting pitchers. Add in 7-10 from Flexen and Kikuchi; now you’re at 60 wins. The relief crew routinely attributes 20% of the win total as well, and that puts the Mariners between, that puts the Mariners at 75 wins. That is without taking into consideration the expected improvements on offense.
Yes, I’m usually Mr. Wet Blanket, but I feel good about this one. Paxton and Gonzales should be far under. Justus Sheffield will also go under (slightly), and Yusei Kikuchi hovers right at it. That’s 40 percent of the innings. With an improved bullpen, the M’s finish the year between 4.10 – 4.20.
Boy, this is a tough one. I expect the rotation to be better this year. Maybe even the best the Seattle Mariners had in the past decade with Gonzales, Kikuchi, Paxton, Sheffield, and Chris Flexen. That’s arguably the best or the most excited I’ve been about the rotation in a long time. However, the team’s ERA for the past decade is 4.48. Including last year’s 5.05.
I took the over, but it will be close. Paxton in the rotation makes a huge difference. The bullpen is also better, but not to the point where they move the needle far enough.
The starting pitching is going to be an adventure. Marco and Maple will be good. You hope for them to sit somewhere in the 3.00-3.50 range. You hope that Sheffield is there too. Flexen, Kikuchi, and Dunn will push the average starter ERA to over 4.25 though based on history and spring performance, should Dunn win the sixth spot.
That means that the Mariners will need the bullpen to stay below 4.25. That’s going to be a tough challenge. I think they’ll improve, but there are enough question marks to put them in a position to be under 4.25 ERA. Plus, less than half the league has been better than 4.25 the last two years.
Last year the Mariners wouldn’t have been close over a full season (685). In 2021, Dylan Moore starts the year as the leadoff hitter, which is worth 10 runs. He’ll have Ty France, Kyle Lewis, Kyle Seager, and Mitch Haniger behind him. That combo, if healthy, is worth another 20 runs over the course of the year. Jarred Kelenic is the X factor. He’ll have to live up to the hype from his first game on to come close.
It will be close, but they fall just short. On the bright side, that’s still another third of a run per game, which combined with better pitching means more wins.
Again, I expect this team to be better and their offense to deeper and better. Only three times in the last decade has the team gone over 725. For all those out there who are clamoring for more veteran signings, hold your horses. In the years when the Mariners featured Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Jean Segura, and Dee Gordon only did it twice. And those two times, the team had a winning record once. So, yeah, still want the vets?
The Mariners aren’t a traditional power-hitting team. What they do have is plenty of gap power. Don’t be surprised if Seattle is close to the league lead in doubles. More extra-base hits lead to more runs.
The Mariner’s were on pace for 685 runs last year, and they are adding France for the full season. Also, Haniger and Murphy are returning from injuries, and at some point in this season, Jarred Kelenic. Those additions should increase the number of runs that the Mariners score this season.
Under, but closer than ever. Over J.P. Crawford‘s MLB career, the biggest criticism of him at the plate is that he needs to be more patient. Because the lineup around him is better, he should get better pitches to hit, especially if he can work counts early. Unfortunately, it still won’t be enough to crack .350 yet. The M’s would be happy if he improves to .340, though.
I want to be over, and Crawford wants it to be over. But sadly, he’s a career .325, and even in last year’s two-month sprint, it was .336. His offense is making strides of improvement. That’s all we as fans can ask for.
It sure would be nice if J.P. Crawford did get on base at a .350-ish or better. He would make for a great catalyst at the top of the order.
He’s done it in the minor leagues but never at the major league level. It’s also likely that he will move down the order into a position where he might want to be more aggressive in his at-bats, leading to fewer walks.
Kyle Lewis has the skills to be a perennial 30 (homers) – 30 (steals) – 30 (doubles) player. I believe his end of 2020 slump began after opposing teams realized the man behind him in the order, Kyle Seager, wasn’t hitting. As a consequence, they pitched around Lewis, and he started chasing. I think he learned his lesson. Additionally, there is more protection for him in the batting order.
It’ll be close, but I think he hits 31 this year. This year the baseball is reported to be deadened, compared to last year. It’s yet to be determined how much of an impact this will make for the hitters. I’ve been a fan of KLewis since he was drafted and have said that as long as he remains healthy (no major injury like he’s already experienced), he’s going to be special.
Actually, I think he’ll be right at 30 homers. Sometimes a hitter has to take singles and doubles when they’re available. Once Lewis learns to go with pitches, he’ll be a more dangerous hitter.
I have him hitting between 32-37 home runs this season. He likes to hit home runs in bunches. There would be plenty of opportunity for protection from the Mariner’s line-up, giving him better pitches to hit.
Over 500 plate appearance, very much yes. 500 at-bats, I don’t think so. Early in the season, expect Scott Servais to give him plenty of rest. That’s going to keep his AB’s down. The only way I see him breaking 500 at-bats is if the Seattle Mariners are close in the playoff race in mid-August. At that point, the M’s will want him at the plate as much as possible.
MEEEEEEEETCH is back! Another barley over. All reports out of spring training are positive on Mitch. Some even say he’s back and looking like his All-Star level form. Expect Mitch to get maybe a few more days off early in the year, but by the time Jarred Kelenic gets the call-up, Mitch will be full go.
Haniger worked hard to get himself ready for 2021. I’d bet he is in the best shape of his life. Still, it’s up to manager Scott Servais to protect an important part of the team. Mitch likely finishes around 450 at-bats.
Even if he remains healthy all season, I would expect Mitch Haniger to be in the 500 plate appearances area, not 500 at-bats. In addition, the outfield situation with Trammell and Kelenic might push him for playing time. I would expect occasional days off for Haniger, and getting to 135 games played would put him close to 500 plate appearances.
Look at me being optimistic again. I am well aware of James Paxton’s injury history. In eight Major League seasons, he’s thrown over 150 innings twice and hasn’t avoided the injury list in any of them. This is the year Big Maple breaks the streak. Paxton, above any other Seattle Mariners starter, benefits from a six-man rotation. While he might miss a start here or there, Paxton breaks his previous high and throws at least 180 innings.
Is this a serious question? Under, easily. Paxton has only been over the 140 innings pitched mark twice. Now, if the question is 140 days on the DL, I’d probably take the over. Listen, I hope I’m wrong, and Big Maple is lights out. But this is the real-life Mr. Glass. He is marked fragile. Paxton needs to be handled delicately AND with kid gloves.
No one can have that much bad luck. Seriously, Paxton makes at least 25 starts. At an average of six innings per start, that’s 150 right there.
Even a healthy Paxton in a five-man rotation would struggle to get to 140 innings. The reality is that the Big Maple has yet to play a season without a trip to the IL. I hope I’m wrong and it is over.
Now back to my regularly grumpy self, I say no way. Evan White has a pretty swing. The kind coaches like to teach to young kids. Unfortunately, he doesn’t make enough contact to break the Mendoza line. Not only will White hit maybe .190-ish, but he’ll strike out a minimum of 175 times. He could once again have twice as many Ks as he does hits.
Shocker, I know, considering I’m the one who said the M’s might have rushed White to the majors and done permanent damage to him. But he MUST hit better than .200 if he’s serious about playing in the MLB long-term. His defensive glove can only carry him so far. If his bat will be a liability, that puts extra pressure on the rest of the M’s hitters to be great-to-extraordinary to make up for his weakness.
Last season was a huge learning experience for Evan White. I’m not saying his bat will catch up with his grove; hitting over .200 will happen. However, he won’t hit much more than that.
No one has worked harder on making adjustments to their swing in the offseason than Evan White. He still has excellent exit velocity when he does make contact, and his strikeout percentage should fall back into line where he was in the minor leagues. Also, I’m confident that if 2020 had been a full season, he would’ve made it over .200 by the end.
Editors note: For the next two questions, under is before and over is after.
There is no need to over-fast-track Jarred Kelenic. A month of extended spring training with instruction and hitting Triple-A pitching can only benefit his career. The M’s would be wise to bring him up the first few days in May when the Rainiers break camp and head to Tacoma.
As of this moment, there is still a chance he breaks spring training with the M’s. If he doesn’t then, he’ll get the call up no later than when the M’s get an extra year of service from him. But if the latter happens, I’ll take it a step further and say the M’s call him up before then. It would go a long way to repairing the damage done by Kevin Mather.
I’d really like the Mariners to stick to their guns and wait a month or two before calling him up. He doesn’t have enough at-bats over High-A ball. There is a reason for player development systems. Kelenic should put his ego aside. Why not take the opportunity to tune up against minor league pitching and get into a rhythm before jumping into the deep end.
Also, Taylor Trammell is doing a great job this spring. He deserves a shot at playing every day.
April 16-24th will be when he’s called up. This is when the service time window will get Kelenic an additional season of controllability. He’s ready as well.
Much to my dismay, it’s over. As if Seager’s $18M salary this season isn’t bad enough, no team wants to pick him up with a player option of $15M in 2022. He’ll finish out the year in Seattle.
I know, I know, I’ve been trying to trade him for so long. Listen, there’s still that chance, but with my expectations of the M’s vying for the playoffs, Seager will finish the year with the M’s. They’ll need his glove and veteran presence as the franchise looks to make the playoffs for the first time in two decades.
Chris isn’t the only member of PNWS who’s been trying to trade away Kyle Seager. He takes up 27.5 percent of the Seattle Mariners payroll. As I’ve written several times, he’s a luxury the M’s can’t afford. There isn’t another MLB team that would take on his salary liability, considering he hasn’t hit over .250 for an entire season since 2016.
No one will take Seager’s contract in a trade. Third base is also incredibly deep amongst the expected contenders. It’s possible that if an injury happens and a team is desperate enough, they might seek out Kyle Seager. It’s also possible that if Seager plays well enough, the Mariners exercise the team option, especially without a true third baseman waiting in the wings.
These questions are just for fun. The writers were asked for their prediction anything else is voluntary.
Chip Clark – Under. He’s 75-83 since he took over in 2016 with one season over 50 percent.
Chris Phillips – Over. Umm, I have No idea. The coin flip says over.
Ed Stein – Under. Servais isn’t good at challenges.
Joe Swenson – Over. I see this happening less and less.
Herb Nightengale – Over.
Chip Clark – Over. One of Gonzales, Paxton, Sheffield wins 15 games.
Chis Phillips – Under. MLB wins are fickle. King Felix had many good seasons, but other M’s pitchers ended up with more wins.
Ed Stein – Over. Either Gonzales or Paxton wins 15.
Joe Swenson – Over. Marco should get to 16-18 wins.
Herb Nightengale – Over.
Chip Clark – Under. He’s played seven positions in each of the last two seasons, but not again in 2021. It won’t be because Dylan Moore is the regular second baseman. Haniger, Taylor Trammell, and Kelenic are better centerfielders than Moore. Unless the team gets rocked by injuries, it’s hard to see him playing there.
Chris Phillips – Over. It’s because of injury or slump, either by him or another player.
Ed Stein – Under. There’s no reason for it with this roster.
Joe Swenson – Under. He’ll be the primary second baseman. There isn’t a real need to play him elsewhere with France and possibly Sam Haggerty making the team.
Herb Nightengale – Under.
Chip Clark – Over. Injuries happen. The best-laid plans get torn up over 162 games.
Chris Phillips – Over. See Dylan Moore above. I think Moore has to move to another position to play in the field, and France steps into the second base spot.
Ed Stein – Under. If everyone is healthy, France should DH almost 100 games.
Joe Swenson – Under. Haniger and Seager seem likely to hit at DH this season, but most of the games will be DH’d by France.
Herb Nightengale – Over.
Chip Clark – Under. There will be enough deserving M’s. It’s that the team doesn’t get respect from fans, other teams, or MLB.
Chris Phillips – Over. I can confidently say three, possibly four. Kyle Lewis, Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, and maybe Marco Gonzales head to Atlanta for the ASG.
Ed Stein – Under. This team is greater than the sum of its parts.
Joe Swenson – Over.
Herb Nightengale – Over
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