Seattle Mariners 2021 Season – Over/Under
Team ERA – 4.25
Chip Clark – Under
Yes, I’m usually Mr. Wet Blanket, but I feel good about this one. Paxton and Gonzales should be far under. Justus Sheffield will also go under (slightly), and Yusei Kikuchi hovers right at it. That’s 40 percent of the innings. With an improved bullpen, the M’s finish the year between 4.10 – 4.20.
Chris Phillips – Over
Boy, this is a tough one. I expect the rotation to be better this year. Maybe even the best the Seattle Mariners had in the past decade with Gonzales, Kikuchi, Paxton, Sheffield, and Chris Flexen. That’s arguably the best or the most excited I’ve been about the rotation in a long time. However, the team’s ERA for the past decade is 4.48. Including last year’s 5.05.
Ed Stein – Over
I took the over, but it will be close. Paxton in the rotation makes a huge difference. The bullpen is also better, but not to the point where they move the needle far enough.
Joe Swenson – Over
The starting pitching is going to be an adventure. Marco and Maple will be good. You hope for them to sit somewhere in the 3.00-3.50 range. You hope that Sheffield is there too. Flexen, Kikuchi, and Dunn will push the average starter ERA to over 4.25 though based on history and spring performance, should Dunn win the sixth spot.
That means that the Mariners will need the bullpen to stay below 4.25. That’s going to be a tough challenge. I think they’ll improve, but there are enough question marks to put them in a position to be under 4.25 ERA. Plus, less than half the league has been better than 4.25 the last two years.