Jordan Greenway, Minnesota Wild (Photo by Surveytrevor, via Wikimedia).
Welcome to Pacific Northwest Sports’ fourth Seattle Kraken “too early” mock expansion draft. We dropped the “way” from “too early” because the 2020-21 NHL season is underway. Now it’s time to take a harder look at players from the 30 teams Seattle has to chose from.
Now that more players are reaching the games played threshold to be eligible for the draft, we get a clearer picture of who the other teams have to protect. Some enticing players could be available. That still doesn’t mean this is an easy task.
As far as our mock expansion draft goes, this one will be quite different from our previous versions. This time we consider free agents. Because that’s a factor, some of the players selected will be a bit on the odd side; as in why in the heck would Seattle want that guy.
Before getting into the details, there are some important dates to keep in mind.
Last possible day to award Stanley Cup – July 15.
Teams submit protected lists – July 17.
Exclusive Kraken negotiation window with free agents – July 18-20.
Expansion draft – July 21
NHL free agency begins – July 28.
Signing free agents early is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, if the Kraken signs a free agent before the expansion draft, he counts as the player would have drafted off the original team. For example, if Seattle signs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on July 19, he would count as Edmonton’s expansion selection.
There are positives to signing early free agents. Kraken GM Ron Francis could land a few choice draft picks from teams who don’t want to lose key players. In this example, the Bruins don’t want to lose a good young player like Ondrej Kase, or Jakub Zboril. Boston could offer up a second-round pick if the Kraken sign UFA defenseman Kevan Miller.
Without getting into specifics, Francis will make trades. It is tough to predict who or what, but we will assume Seattle gets draft pick compensation for choosing the following players:
Boston – Kevan Miller – UFA
Buffalo – Curtis Lazar (would have to be at least a second)
Columbus – Mikhail Grigorenko – UFA
New Jersey – Sami Vatanen – UFA
San Jose – Stefan Noesen – UFA
Tampa Bay – Patrick Maroon
This is where Seattle can make a huge splash. By pre-negotiating big contracts, the Kraken set themselves up to have a great team. Here’s a look at how that situation plays out.
During the early negotiating sessions, Francis can say to a potential high ticket free agent. “Lots of teams will be hard-pressed to stay under the cap this summer, so the market might not be as strong as it was in previous seasons. We won’t have that problem; we might be almost $30M under the cap ceiling. There is someone we want to draft from your old organization. If you can be patient, the money is there.
Gabriel Landeskog – Six-years, $57M ($9.5M AAV). Backup plan Taylor Hall or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. This is a franchise cornerstone, money shouldn’t be an obstacle. Whichever one of these three Seattle signs wears the “C” as the first Kraken captain.
Jaden Schwartz – Four-years, $30M (7.5M AAV).
Adam Lowry – Five-years, $26M ($5.2M AAV).
Per the set expansion draft rules, there are many perimeters existing teams must follow when submitting their protected lists.
Here is a brief recap of the rules in place when the Seattle Kraken selects the Expansion Draft. They are the same rules Las Vegas had in place in 2019. In their inaugural season, the Golden Knights made it all the way to the Stanley Cup finals.
As the season marches on, we will get a better picture of who will be available. Additionally, there is no way to account for trades Francis makes or backroom deals he puts together before and during the draft.
For now, with the help of Capfriendly.com’s Expansion Draft Simulator, this is our preliminary team.
When Vegas played their inaugural season, they surprised the rest of the league with the quality of their forwards. The Knights scored goals in bunches and put opponents on their heels quickly. Seattle could come very close in that regard with a quality group of forwards as well.
The following are the forwards selected in this mock, along with their current team, age, and cap hit, beginning with the 2021–22 season.
Nicolas Aube-Kubel – Philadelphia, 1-year, $1.08M
Mikael Backlund – Calgary, 31, 3-years, $5.35M
J.T. Compher – Colorado, 25, 2-years, $3.50M
Christian Fischer – Arizona, 23, 1-year, $1.00M
Jordan Greenway – Minnesota, 24, 1-year, $2.10M
Mikhail Grigorenko – Columbus, 26, EST 1-year, $1.80M
Curtis Lazar – Buffalo, 23, 1-year, $800K
Patrick Maroon – Tampa Bay, 1-year, $900K
Tyler Motte – Vancouver, 1-year, $1.23M
Stefan Noesen – San Jose, 28, EST 1-year, $1.00M
T.J. Oshie – Washington, 33, 4-years, $5.75M
Robert Thomas – St. Louis, 21, Restricted free agent
Kyle Turris – Edmonton, 31, 1-year, $1.65M
Carter Verhaeghe – Florida, 23, 1-year, $1.00M
Austin Wagner – Los Angeles, 2-years, $1.13M
The more I do this, the more I look at the forwards. This is the area with the most value. The big get here is obviously local product T.J. Oshie. He should be a contributing member of the Seattle Kraken through the end of his contract.
Lazar probably sticks around as the 13th forward unless one of the other forwards beats him out (which could happen). Otherwise, they start the season in the minors.
The first line has the potential to be explosive. Lowry gets his chance to shine, and he can do it with Landeskog and Oshie as his wing-men. Line two might not have the same name value, but they are talented. It should be interesting to see Backlund used in a primarily offensive role. The third line can also put points on the board.
Thomas is an up and comer; Francis would be wise to get him signed long term. Fischer and Turris are good bottom-six pivots.
There is a little bit of everything among the forwards, scoring, playmaking, defense, grit, and potential.
The way to build a good hockey team is from the net out. There is a premium in the NHL put on playing solid defense, especially in the playoffs. Overall, this group is steady, but there is some offensive upside.
The defensemen aren’t going to lose games for the team, but they aren’t likely to win many, either. There is good news; none of the group are over 26; they can grow as a unit. Additionally, there is a good mix of left and right-handed d-men.
Nathan Beaulieu – Winipeg, 28, 1-year, $1.75M
Christian Djoos – Detroit, 26, RFA
Dante Fabbro – Nashville, 22, RFA
Jacob Larsson – Anaheim, 23, 1-year, $1.20M
Scott Mayfield – New York Islanders, 28, 2-years, $1.45M
Kevan Miller – Boston, 33, EST 1-year, $1.25M
Andrej Sekera – Dallas, 34, 1-year, $1.50M
Jaccob Slavin – Carolina, 26, 4-years, $5.30M
Sami Vatanen – New Jersey, 1-year, $2.50M
Some of these defensemen will be dealt before the season starts. As always, there is a strong market for top-four D-men. Some of the selections could bring back a return of solid prospects for long-term development. Then again, Ron Francis could wait until the trade deadline and try to get more from a desperate team.
Miller or Larson becomes the seventh defenseman.
The top two D-men are Slavin and Vatanen. The Seattle Kraken can make a splash by drafting someone older and more expensive, such as Brent Burns (35, four-years, $8M). Why would Francis want to tie himself down for so long to an aging player?
Vatanen makes for an ideal first power-play quarterback. Eventually, Fabro will take over the role. As a matter of fact, out of all of the new Kraken players, Fabro may be the breakout star. He is reliable defensively and handles the puck well.
Going back to Vegas, the key to their entire Stanley Cup Finals run was goalie Marc-Andre-Fleury. If Seattle hockey fans are looking for hope of a hot start to the franchise, look no further than this cadre of backstops. Among them, there is starting material, backups, reliable third options, and future mainstays.
Jake Allen – Montreal, 30, 2-years, 2.88M
Jack Campbell – Toronto, 29, 1-year, $1.65M
Casey DeSmith – Pittsburgh, 29, 1-year, $1.25M
Filip Gustavsson – Ottawa, 22, RFA
Keith Kinkaid – New York Rangers, 31, $825K
Malcolm Subban – Chicago, 27, $850K
I’m one of the people who thought it would be a good idea for the Kraken to pursue Carey Price from Montreal. Upon further consideration, it’s a bad plan. Not that Jake Allen is better, but Allen is 30, and Price, one of the best ever, will be 34 with five-years at $10.5M left on his contract.
Besides, Oshie is the ready-made face of the franchise. If the Seattle Kraken felt they needed a venerable veteran for the Marc-Andre Fleury role, they could always draft Jonathan Quick from Los Angeles for less money and a much shorter commitment than Price.
Allen and Campbell can handle the net until Gustavson is ready to take over. They might not even last that long. One of them could go for a high-round pick and a backup. Both DeSmith and Kinkaid will be flipped at or shortly after the draft. Subban serves as organizational depth.
One other thing to watch for, in the future, is how much value does the organization place on players who grew up in the area or played for the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds. Vegas did very well with Deryk Engelland as their captain. He played for the Las Vegas Wranglers in the ECHL at the outset of his career, so local hockey fans were familiar with him.