Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild.
Welcome to Pacific Northwest Sports’ third Seattle Kraken “too early” mock expansion draft. We dropped the “way” from “too early” because the 2020-21 NHL season is underway. Now it’s time to take a harder look at players from the 29 teams Seattle has to chose from.
This is still not an easy task. Much has changed from our last mock, two-and-a-half months ago. More will change in the months ahead. Things such as trades, injuries, contract extensions, and player development make drafts like this fluid. However difficult it may be for us, it’s likely tripled for Kraken GM Ron Francis and his staff.
Per the set expansion draft rules, there are many perimeters existing teams must follow when submitting their protected lists.
Here is a brief recap of the rules in place when the Seattle Kraken selects the Expansion Draft. They are the same rules Las Vegas had in place in 2019. In their inaugural season, the Golden Knights made it all the way to the Stanley Cup finals.
As the season marches on, we will get a better picture of who will be available. Additionally, there is no way to account for trades Francis makes or backroom deals he puts together before and during the draft.
For now, with the help of Capfriendly.com’s Expansion Draft Simulator, this is our preliminary team.
When Vegas played their inaugural season, they surprised the rest of the league with the quality of their forwards. The Knights scored goals in bunches and put opponents on their heels quickly. Seattle could come very close in that regard with a quality group of forwards as well.
The following are the forwards selected in this mock, along with their current team, age, and cap hit, beginning with the 2021–22 season.
Mikael Backlund – Calgary, 31, 3-years, $5.35M
Anders Bjork – Boston, 24, 2-years, $2.6M
Sammy Blais, St. Louis, 25, 1-year, $1.50M
Jason Dickinson – Dallas, 25, RFA (arbitration-eligible)
Jordan Eberle – NY Islanders, 30, 3-years, $5.50M
Robby Fabbri – Detroit, 25, 1-year, $2.95
Dylan Gambrell – San Jose, 24, RFA
Danton Heinen – Anaheim, 25, RFA (arbitration-eligible)
Brett Howden – NY Rangers, 22, RFA
Curtis Lazar – Buffalo, 23, 1-year, $800K
Jared McCann – Pittsburgh, 24, 1-year, $2.94M
T.J. Oshie – Washington, 33, 4-years, $5.75M
Brayden Point – Tampa Bay, 24, 1-year, $6.75M
Tyler Pitlick – Arizona, 29, 1-year, $1.75M
Antoine Roussel – Vancouver, 31, 1-year, $3.00M
Pavel Zacha – New Jersey, 23, 1-year, $2.25M
The more I do this, the more I look at the forwards. This is the area with the most value. The big get here is obviously local product T.J. Oshie. He should be a contributing member of the Seattle Kraken through the end of his contract. If Zacha can play anywhere near his pre-entry draft projections, he’d be a steal. He has a year to prove himself.
Bjork serves as the 13th forward. Unless Howden, Lazar, or Gabmbrell beats out one of the above (which could happen), they will start in the minors.
The first line has the potential to be explosive. This is Point’s chance to get out of Steven Stamkos’ long shadow, and he can do it with Oshie as his wing-man. Line two might not have the same name value, but they are talented. It should be interesting to see Backlund used in a primarily offensive role.
Roussel is one of the league’s toughest men. Blais is another one that likes to hit. They’ll protect the younger players.
There is a little bit of everything among the forwards, scoring, playmaking, defense, grit, and potential.
The way to build a good hockey team is from the net out. There is a premium in the NHL put on playing solid defense, especially in the playoffs. Overall, this group is steady, but there is some offensive upside.
The defensemen aren’t going to lose games for the team, but they aren’t likely to win many, either. There is good news; none of the group are over 26; they can grow as a unit. Additionally, there is a good mix of left and right-handed d-men.
Madison Bowey, Chicago, 25, 1-year, $725K
Nathan Beaulieu, Winnipeg, 28, 1-year, $1.25M
Dante Fabbro, Nashville, 22, RFA
Matt Dumba – Minnesota, 26, 2-years, $6.00M
Robert Hagg – Philadelphia, 26, 1-year, $1.60M
Caleb Jones – Edmonton, 23, 1-year, $850K
Dean Kukan – Columbus, 27, 1-year, $1.65M
Kurtis MacDermid – Los Angeles, 23, 1-year, $875K
Brett Pesce – Carolina, 26, 3-years, $4.03M
Some of these defensemen will be dealt before the season starts. As always, there is a strong market for top-four D-men. Some of the selections could bring back a return of solid prospects for long-term development. Then again, Ron Francis could wait until the trade deadline and try to get more from a desperate team.
MacDermid or Kukan becomes the seventh defenseman, with the other joining Bowy in the miners.
I don’t expect Dumba will be available at the draft. Minnesota has three defensemen with no-movement clauses. The Wild either gets Ryan Suter to waive his or trades Dumba before teams submit their protected lists. He’s got too much value to lose for nothing. Then again maybe Francis works something out.
The top two D-men are Dumba and Pesce. Both prefer the right side, so either one might switch to the middle pair for either Jones or Beaulieu. the Seattle Kraken can make a splash by drafting someone older and more expensive, such as Brent Burns (35, four-years, $8M). Why would Francis want to tie himself down for so long to an aging player?
However, Dumba and Pesce will need to take more offensive roles than they have recently. If they can be like the guys who scored 50 points in 2017-18 for Minnesota and 35 points for the Canes in 2018–19, the Kraken could have something special.
Out of all of them, Fabro may be the breakout star. He is reliable defensively and can handle the puck.
Going back to Vegas, the key to their entire Stanley Cup Finals run was goalie Marc-Andre-Fleury. If Seattle hockey fans are looking for hope of a hot start to the franchise, look no further than this cadre of backstops. Among them, there is starting material, backups, reliable third options, and future mainstays.
Jake Allen – Montreal, 30, 2-years, 2.88M
Jack Campbell – Toronto, 29, 1-year, $1.65M
Filip Gustavson – Ottawa, 22, RFA
Miska Hunter – Colorado, 25, 1-year, $725K
Samuel Montembeault – Florida, 24, RFA
I’m one of the people who thought it would be a good idea for the Kraken to pursue Carey Price from Montreal. Upon further consideration, it’s a bad plan. Not that Jake Allen is better, but Allen is 30, and Price, one of the best ever, will be 34 with five-years at $10.5M left on his contract.
Besides, Oshie is the ready-made face of the franchise. If the Seattle Kraken felt they needed a venerable veteran in the Marc-Andre Fleury role, they could always draft Jonathan Quick from Los Angeles for less money and a much shorter commitment than Price.
In previous drafts, I had the Kraken selecting six goalies. I cut that down to five. Allen and Campbell can handle the net until Gustavson is ready to take over. Don’t count out Montembeault, though.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either Allen or Campbell flipped for a high-round draft pick and backup NHL quality goalie.
One other thing to watch for, going forward, is how much value does the organization place on players who grew up in the area or played for the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds. Vegas did very well with Deryk Engelland as their captain. He played for the Las Vegas Wranglers in the ECHL at the outset of his career, so local hockey fans were familiar with him.