T-Mobile Park (Photo by Susan Dennis, via Flickr).
Reigning American League Cy Young Award Winner Robbie Ray is now a Seattle Mariner (pending physical). The 30-year-old former 12th round pick by the Nationals is now on your Seattle Mariners. What does that mean?
On paper? Yes. Absolutely. Without a doubt. He is 30 years old and is coming off of his most dominant season that resulted in the American League Cy Young Award. Ray is a two-pitch pitcher that also throws a curveball and a change-up 9% of the time. He lives on a 4-seam fastball that averages 95 miles per hour. Last year it was hit at a .222 clip and 24.6% of Ray’s 248 strikeouts were from the fastball. His slider though is absolutely unhittable. Batters hit .173 against it and his 45.8% whiff rate, meaning that half the time a hitter swung at the pitch, they missed, is really amazing. Batters hit .173 against his slider, but it’s a unique slider.
His fastball velocity has improved every year since 2019 when he was at 92.4 MPH. In fact, the speed on all of his pitches has risen by 2-5 MPH depending on the pitch. Ray’s slider doesn’t break as much as most lefties with their hard-breaking wipe-out sliders. Instead, this slider has a bit of dip to it and a late break that makes it work like a cut-sinker, instead of your traditional slider. The slider’s late break and Ray’s command of the pitch from the same arm slot as his fastball is what really messes with the hitter.
His health would be the final question that fans would have. For all the right reasons. Chris Flexen was Seattle’s only starter to not miss a single start all season. In the last 8 seasons, Robbie Ray has had at least 23 starts (MLB + Minors). He hasn’t missed a start since 2018 where he spent a month on the IL but still managed 24 big league starts with 2 rehab starts. In 8 seasons he’s only been on the IL twice; 2017 and 2018. He’s missed an estimated total of 10 big league starts in his career and has 189 starts. Last season, he achieved many league highs in games started (32), innings (193.1), and strikeouts (248). He also had a league-low 2.84 Era.
Next: Page 2 – Starting Rotation
Ray adds a lefty arm to complement the two righties that the Seattle Mariners already have in the rotation in Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert. He’s a flame thrower who has above-average speed on all four pitches that he throws. However, he’s primarily a fastball/slider pitcher (91% of his pitches).
The rotation will likely look like this. Robbie Ray will occupy the #1 spot, Chris Flexen the #2 spot, Marco Gonzales the #3 spot, and Logan Gilbert the #4 spot. The Mariners don’t have a reliable option for the #5 spot yet, but that would likely be filled through free agency, a trade, or one of the most major league-ready prospects the Mariners have.
While George Kirby is the next big prospect on the list of prospects to hopefully make the Gilbert jump in 2022. He’s not the only one and the Mariners could benefit from adding another quality starting pitcher to the roster. At the time this article was written, there had been rumors that Marcus Stroman was a possible answer. He would obviously answer a lot of rotational questions.
There are possible trade partners out there as well. The Padres have been a constant partner over the last two seasons, they could be the answer again with their abundance of starting pitchers. The Orioles could be the team to look to as well with two decent starting pitching options on the trade block. These might not be the most amazing answers, but it gets the M’s where they need to be.
Next: Page 3 – Future Starters
The biggest name right now is George Kirby (Mariners’ #3 prospect), but he’s not the only name. He has yet to pitch above AA, and while pitchers make the leap to the big leagues all of the time from AA, the M’s are likely to take their time with Kirby.
The other name that Mariner’s fans will know is Emerson Hancock (Mariners’ #4 prospect), the 6th overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft. He also made it to Arkansas and looked decent, other than the pitches limit that has been on him. Both Hancock and Kirby spent some time on the IL and Hancock was actually shut down.
23 soon-to-be 24-year-old lefty Brandon Williamson (Mariners #7 prospect) was taken in the 2nd round of the 2019 MLB draft and he was incredibly dominant throughout the 2021 season. He also finished at AA, but in 19 starts he pitched nearly 100 innings and had 153 strikeouts. He gives up the longball a tad much, but he showed that he is at least ready to compete for a spot.
There are others as well, including Connor Phillips (Mariners’ #8 prospect) who was taken in the 2nd round of the 2020 MLB draft. Levi Stoudt (Mariners #9 prospect) was taken in the 3rd round of the 2019 MLB draft. He also finished at AA Arkansas and while he doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters, he does induce a lot of soft contact.
Next: Page 4 – Other in House Rotation Options
If Jerry Dipoto doesn’t sign a Free Agent or make a trade, then one of these three pitchers is likely to be in that 5th spot. Matt Brash (Mariners #10 Prospect), the 4th round pick of the 2019 draft by the Padres, finished his 2021 season on the Mariners’ active roster. He finished with 142 strikeouts in 97 innings and a 2.31 ERA. He never appeared in a game for Seattle, but instead pitched 10 games at AA Arkansas, where he was absolutely lights out.
While Kirby and Williamson could make the opening day roster, if the Mariners are going to grab someone from the minor leagues to start, it could be a non-top 30 prospect like Darren McCaughan. The 25-year-old right-hander pitched okay at AAA Tacoma en route to a 5-4 record in 20 starts and a 4.53 ERA.
There is also Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield. Both were in the starting rotation last year. Sheffield eventually was moved out of the rotation and at this point, it’s unclear where he’ll be pitching for the Seattle Mariners. Dunn on the other hand showed some real consistency prior to getting injured. It’s possible he could be fighting for the final rotation spot again this year, just like last year. Maybe these two guys pitch on the same day, with Sheffield being the opener for Dunn. Regardless, there are some in-house options for the Seattle Mariners in 2021.
Next: Page 5 – Fall Back Plan
Seattle could fill in the void with a journeyman starter, like Tyler Anderson. There are worse options, but, this is likely the last resort type of signing. It’s possible that we won’t know until closer to spring training because of the impending lockout. And if Dipoto can’t pull the trigger on a higher valued target now, then waiting is the appropriate option.
I’d like to see the M’s sign Marcus Stroman, he’d fit right in as the #2, keep Marco at #3, and move Flexen to #4 with Gilbert rounding out the final piece of the opening day rotation. This gives the prospects room to grow at AA or AAA and see what Dipoto really has as far as trade capital. Plus Flexen is signed through the end of 2022 with a team option in 2023. Which can pave the way for some of these prospects to join the club.
You can never have too many starting pitchers with the frequency and impact injuries have. Acquiring Stroman doesn’t stop the coming wave of starting pitchers. It does give the Mariners so many more options, especially when it comes to making trades.
If the Stroman acquisition doesn’t happen. Then I’d like to see Matt Brash be the first prospect called up with Kirby and Williamson on standby. Hancock needs more seasoning in the minors. Plus he needs to demonstrate that he can remain healthy for an entire season.
Joe Swenson loves to talk sports, play sports, eat sports.