Trail Blazers

Portland Trail Blazers: The Road To Attrition and Redemption

By Andrew Elderbaum

The Portland Trail Blazers season has mercifully come to an end. Once high hopes led to a painful crash to the bottom. Now it’s time to sift through the wreckage to figure out what’s next in RIP City.

If we’re honest with ourselves, the Portland Trail Blazers 2021-22 season began sliding off the rails, before anyone touched a basketball. First, they “fired” Terry Stotts (he had no desire to return), and their top candidate to replace him declined to interview.

Then they brought in Chauncey Billups, someone with zero head coaching experience. But he did bring a decades-old sexual assault allegation with him. That’s always a feel-good story for a franchise.

In late October, General Manager Neil Olshey was suspended while the team conducted an investigation into his workplace misconduct. A month later, Olshey was gone. The organization replaced Olshey with his assistant, Joe Cronin, on an interim basis. Before going much further, it’s almost four months later, and Cronin still has interim attached to his title.

Players fall out, too

Superstar Damian Lillard only played 29 games, his season-ended on New Year’s Eve. His departure due to surgery for a lingering core muscle injury cut the soul from the Blazers. C.J. McCollum played 35 of 55 games and then was shipped off to New Orleans for Josh Hart and some magic beans. McCollum became expendable with rise of Anfernee Simons.

Jusuf Nurkic, Simons, Justise Winslow, Hart, and Nassir Little all finished the year on the Blazers’ injured list. A team that (foolishly) thought they were contenders at the beginning of the season ended up towards the top of the lottery. This isn’t what anyone in the franchise brain trust had planned. So what happens now?

Next: Page 2 – Making deals

Blazers Decision Time

Portland made its first major decision at the NBA trade deadline when they moved McCollum to the Pelicans. Simons made huge strides, and the Blazers needed to make room for him. But did they trade the right player?

Dame will be 32 next year and hasn’t played an entire season in two years (and that season was shortened and finished in a bubble.) There’s a possibility that he’s reaching the nagging injuries to an undersized guard part of his career.

Also, McCollum is a better fit next to Simons. The young guard is at his best as the primary creator, initiating the offense and deciding to drive or kick. McCollum could space the floor, act as a secondary ball-handler, and essentially play the roles he’s played alongside Dame for years.

The Simons/Lillard fit is a little more awkward. At this point, though, it is what it is, and Blazers fans can only hope for the best.

Right now, Portland’s roster consists of one aging superstar, a possibly ascending second star, and a group of quality role players. How the offseason goes will ultimately decide if this group can contend or if bigger changes are coming.

While the trades of McCollum, Norman Powell, Robert Covington, and company didn’t bring back a ton of talent, they did clear cap space. The free fall also allowed Portland to retain their first round pick. Silver linings.

Next: Page 3 – To spend or not to spend

Best use of assets

While interim GM Joe Cronin talked about the cap space the trades created, the truth is the Portland Trail Blazers are most likely already right back against the cap. Simons is due for a big raise as a restricted free agent, and Portland most likely will have to overpay to retain him.

If the Blazers bring back Nurk along with Simons, that will eat up almost all of the cap space they created. So how do they improve?

This year’s lottery pick and a $20 million trade exception are their two best assets. The question is, who do they go after with those tools. Portland’s perfect missing piece would be a power forward who can defend and provide some reliable shooting.

Unfortunately, most NBA teams are looking for the same guys. So there aren’t many readily available. The following are the most likely available targets.

Doors 1 & 2

Jerami Grant is everyone’s favorite fake trade target. He checks many boxes that the Portland Blazers need and has worn out his welcome in Detroit. He also has delusions of grandeur and thinks he should be the primary star on any team he plays for.

The fact he turned down an equal offer from a contending Denver team so that he could be the leading scorer on an atrocious Pistons squad tells Rip City all they need to know about him. Pass.

The New York Knicks and Julius Randle seem to be tiring of each other after Randle fell back to earth from his career year in 2020. While he isn’t an All-NBA talent, Randle is a solid scorer and rebounder who can move the ball.

He’s less likely to challenge Dame than Grant, and maybe a change of scenery could do him good. Randle isn’t the first choice, but if the Knicks would offer him to Portland as a salary dump, Cronin shouldn’t hang up the phone.

Next: Page 3 – Look to the south

The Blazers Right Move

The best option for Cronin and company to improve the team is with Atlanta. The Hawks have a roster crunch with too many good young players and only so many minutes. They also need to clear some payroll soon for a DeAndre Hunter extension.

The man Hunter is supplanting, John Collins, makes for the perfect addition to Portland’s roster. An athletic young big who can shoot and defend. He’s also locked in for three more years on a reasonable contract and brings some playoff experience with him. This year’s lottery pick, along with cap filler, should be able to get the deal done.

Nurkic, Collins, Little, Simons, and Lillard are a strong starting five. Next, they should call Charlotte and offer to take Gordon Hayward off their hands for Eric Bledsoe‘s expiring deal (they have a $10 million exception to make this deal work) and a future pick.

With Hayward, Hart, Winslow, Trendon Watford, and CJ Elleby on the bench, the team looks more and more like a playoff team. They would be a little small, and that’s where they should use their MLE on someone like Derrick Favors or Ivica Zubac.

This team probably isn’t title contenders in a brutal Western Conference, but they would be a playoff team. If things go just right or injuries hit other teams hard, they may even be able to make a run.

This blueprint is probably the only way to go if the team continues to be Dame-centric. While a total tear-down may have some appeal, as long as Joe Cronin has interim attached to his title, the middle ground is the most likely option.

Where do you think the Portland Trail Blazers go from here? Let us know in the comments section below.

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Andrew Elderbaum