Carmelo Anthony, Portland Trail Blazers
At this point, Portland Trail Blazers and all the teams in the hunt have played four games inside the NBA’s Orlando Bubble. The half-way point is an excellent time to analyze the playoff race.
Five teams are within two-and-a-half games of eighth place, so no one is close to elimination yet. Memphis currently holds the coveted eighth spot with a 32–37 record. The Portland Trail Blazers are close on their tails only a half-game back. Next, come Phoenix and San Antonio, tied at two games behind the Griz. Just a half-game behind those two are Sacramento and New Orleans.
Taking a look at the second half of NBA bubble action, we looked at each team’s schedule. To get a better sense of what they are up against, I came up with a quick formula: (opponents winning percentage in 2019–20 + (opponents winning percentage inside the bubble x 2)) x pressure factor.
The record of the upcoming opponents is important, but how they are playing in the bubble is more critical, so it carries double weight. As for the pressure factor, each game gets a score from two to zero. Two is a game against one of the five teams in the mad scramble for the final playoff (or play-in) positions. One is against a team fighting for a better playoff seed. A score of zero means the opponent has nothing to play for; they can’t advance or fall in the standings. The highest possible schedule plus intensity score is 9.96
The results are interesting, to say the least. They shed a different light on each team’s chances. We will start from the bottom of the standings and work up.
The Pelicans have the most manageable schedule in terms of opponents winning percentage, by a country mile. But three-quarters of the games are high stakes. Friday night against Washington is a trap game they can’t afford to lose.
To some extent, New Orleans controls their fate. They can almost knock out the Spurs and Kings with wins. To make the postseason, however, they’ll need the top two teams to fail.
On paper, the Brooklyn matchup on Friday night doesn’t look sexy, but the game is vital to both teams. It will be interesting come August 11 if both New Orleans and Sacramento are still in the hunt.
San Antonio has their backs against the wall. Utah is a tough, physical team to play against in a non-pressure situation. Then the Spurs have to come back and play an almost elimination game against New Orleans. If they survive, there is still Houston and Utah again to finish out the season.
Phoenix came into the bubble as a huge postseason longshot. All they’ve done so far is makeup four games on Memphis with four straight wins. Their next three games will be challenging, but if they can win two of three, it will but them in a fantastic position. Dallas locked down the West’s seventh seed. It’s a good bet they don’t give their top player many minutes in their finale’.
The return of big men Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins has completely transformed how teams defend the Portland Trail Blazers. On top of that, Damian Lillard (11 made threes vs. Denver on Thursday), C.J. McCollum, and 6th Man of the Bubble candidate Gary Trent Jr. have been lighting it up from the outside. Finally, Carmelo Anthony has stepped into a time machine and is playing close to “Melo-Classic” basketball.
The Blazers have looked as good as any team in Orlando. Portland still has a gauntlet to run, but at least they have a little breathing room. Just making the play-in game isn’t good enough. It’s eighth seed or bust. Let one of the other contending teams try and beat the Portland Trail Blazers twice in a row. It’s not happening. The top-seeded Lakers should be a little worried about a potential first-round matchup with Terry Stotts’ team.
The Clippers won’t be easy, but Portland is on a roll. Game two against Philly is the toughest because of how physical they play. Winning one of the two contests sets them up nicely for the remainder of the regular season.
This situation is the complete opposite of what New Orleans is facing. What looked like a Herculean task has changed. After Oklahoma on Friday night, it could be all downhill until the play-in series. The Grizzlies face the top three teams in the east, but their seeds are set. How many minutes will the starters see?
How do you think the Portland Trail Blazers stack up in the playoff race? Let us know in the comments section below or on social media.