Portland Trail Blazers: 5 realistic expectations for 2023-24
Rob Ryan
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The Portland Trail Blazers may be rebuilding in 2023-24, but there are still some exciting and realistic expectations to look forward to.
Last summer was the most shocking offseason Portland Trail Blazers fans have had to go through in some time. The team traded superstar Damian Lillard and drafted his high-upside replacement, Scoot Henderson. On the precipice of a rebuilding 2023-24 season, we look at five realistic expectations for Rip City fans.
1. Scoot Henderson developing into a team leader
It’s not often that a rookie ends up being in a situation to lead a team, but it’s also not often a team unexpectedly trades its franchise superstar of the last 11 years. Then again, most third overall picks don’t have two years in the G League experience under their belts. The Portland Trail Blazers 2023 first round pick Scoot Henderson has experience against players who have been in the NBA, playing against grown men.
His extra experience, along with an inquisitive mind that soaks up as much advice as he can get, makes Scoot not your average 19-year-old rookie. Henderson’s desire to play both sides of the ball, get his teammates involved, and be humble enough for Portland Trail Blazers Head Coach Chauncey Billups to mold him into the best version of himself,
Scoot’s talent and intangibles will make him a team leader, if not the leader, by season’s end. He’ll be a candidate for Rookie of the Year along with number one pick Victor Wembanyama and last year’s second pick Chet Holmgren.
2. Deandre Ayton will be the first Blazer to average 20/10 since LaMarcus Aldridge
Deandre Ayton was asked to sacrifice offensive touches on a perimeter-oriented team in Phoenix, where he was often the third option on offense. At the other end of the court, Ayton was expected to anchor the defense and get 10+ rebounds a game.
Rip City fans saw Jusuf Nurkic’s motivation waver when left out of the offense. Ayton probably had similar feelings in Phoenix, except with much higher potential on that end. In 13.2 shots per night, he still averaged 18 points per game on 58.8% shooting from the field.
Ayton’s role in Portland will expand, likely allowing him to show his offensive and defensive potential. Look for the former #1 overall pick to increase that 13.2 shot attempts per game to at least 15.2, if not more, along with his high field goal percentage. Even if he only averages two more attempts per game, his average will top 20 points easily if the percentages stay true.
In five NBA seasons, Ayton never averaged below 10 boards a game. He will be the first Portland Trail Blazers player since Lamarcus Aldridge in 2014-15 to average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds.
3. Anfernee Simons will average at least 25 points per game
Blazer fans saw how Anfernee Simons’ offensive numbers skyrocketed when Damian Lillard missed games over the last two years. Now Dame is gone. Simons might not jump to quite that high a number so soon (Simons averaged 26.1 ppg the last two seasons when there was no CJ McCollum or Lillard present); however, Simons will increase his 2022-23 season average of 21.1 points.
Without Lillard, Portland has to make up for his offensive output the best they can. It’s not easy to replace 32.2 points per game, but expect Simons to lead the stat sheet. At only 24 years old, he is the Portland Trail Blazers offensive veteran, and that will translate into more touches and opportunities to score.
4. Shaedon Sharpe averages over 30 minutes a night by the end of the season
The current roster creates a quagmire for the Portland Trail Blazers to develop last year’s first round pick, Shaedon Sharpe. He either plays out of position at the small forward spot or comes off the bench as a shooting guard while trying to share minutes with Henderson, Simons, and new addition Malcolm Brogdon.
As a lottery pick entering his second season, Sharpe’s development should remain a team priority. Early in the season, he won’t see a big increase in playing time, with the goal being to maximize minutes for Brogden and potentially Simons to raise their trade value before the trade deadline.
After one or both are moved, Sharpe’s minutes will increase. The faster Sharpe develops, the more the Blazers will want him on the floor, specifically paired with Scoot Henderson.
Forming a long-term chemistry and synergy between those two might be the biggest key to the team eventually being contenders again. With likely 7 and 8 years of team-controlled contracts, the Portland Trail Blazers can’t drop the ball on trying to maximize that potential.
5. Expect more trades
The Portland Trail Blazers roster is still in flux. Due to the recent youth movement and rebuild, Jerami Grant and 6th Man of the Year award winner Malcolm Brogdon will be dealt by the trade deadline.
Expiring contracts and draft picks are General Manager Joe Cronin’s goal. Moving those players frees up more minutes for Shaedon Sharpe and the plethora of young backup forwards.
The sooner Portland can provide real minutes to Kris Murray, Jabari Walker, and Toumani Camara, the sooner they get an idea if any of the trio pops out as potential starters or rotation players. Simons will only be moved if the right trade offer comes around.
This past offseason seemed dry for undersized scoring shooting guards, but if Simons’ production increases this year, another team may come calling to try and nab him for more of a lead guard role. In return, the Portland Trail Blazers will need substantial draft capital, expiring contracts, or possibly a high-level small forward who fits the current team’s younger timeline.
In conclusion-
No matter what happens this upcoming season, there will be a certain excitement level that the Portland Trail Blazers haven’t had since the Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden days. The team’s 2023-24 goal probably isn’t winning in the present but building up a team for something far greater than a lower playoff seed and a first-round exit.
If some of the Blazers’ outstanding potential can come to fruition, that goal could become reality sooner rather than later.