Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers.
Gary Trent Jr., Portland Trail Blazers.
After 73 regular-season games, including seven in the Orlando bubble, the Portland Trail Blazers fate comes down to one day, more specifically, about eight hours. When the NBA came up with the bubble concept, they never could have imagined a four-team scramble like the one they have on Thursday. Welcome to the pro version of survive and advance. It’s August Madness if you will.
The Portland Trail Blazers started the eight-game “seeding” round as occupants of the Western Conference’s ninth spot. They trailed Memphis by three-and-a-half games. Behind them were New Orleans, San Antonio, Sacramento, and Phoenix.
Wow, how things have changed since the first game of the restart on July 30. First, the Kings and Pelicans played poorly enough before their Game 7 meeting on Tuesday, that they were both eliminated from contention. San Antonio, who was only one-half game behind Portland, has kept pace. Both teams have played much better than their pre-bubble records would indicate. Each is 5-2 in Orlando.
Memphis was the team that had the easiest road. Take care of business in Orlando, and they might not even have to worry about a play-in. It hasn’t worked out that way. The Griz has looked bad the last two weeks, with a second-worst bubble record of 1-6. That includes a 140 – 135 loss to Portland in the re-opener.
Meanwhile, Phoenix, led by Devin Booker’s 31.0 points-per-game, has been a revelation, winning all seven of their matchups so far.
Carmelo Anthony, Portland Trail Blazers.
A half-game separates all four remaining teams. At tip-off of Thursday’s bubble action, Portland has a half-game lead over the Suns, Spurs, and Grizzlies.
It’s a simple equation for the Portland Trail Blazers. Beat Brooklyn and they finish the regular season in eighth place. If they should lose, they have to hope that two of Memphis, Phoenix, and San Antonio lose as well. In that scenario, Portland finishes ninth and goes to the play-in with a tough mountain to climb.
If Portland loses and only one of three chase team loses, as well, the Blazers season is over. They can watch the play-in series back in Rip City because they will miss it by a half-game. That would sting for quite some time.
Even if the Spurs win, they need both Phoenix and Memphis to lose in order to qualify for the play-in. Due to a difference in games played, San Antonio loses any tiebreaker by .001 percentage points. Should Phoenix and Memphis finish tied, the Grizzlies win a tiebreaker due to a 3-1 head-to-head record.
Per the bubble rules, if the eighth and ninth place teams are within four games after the seeding round, a two-game play-in would ensue. The only way number nine can advance to the playoffs was by winning both games.
It’s not just a matter of making the play-in series. Finishing eighth is a significant advantage. As a reward for advancing through the play-in series, the winners get a great prize. They face the best in the west Los Angeles Lakers in Round 1 of the playoffs.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers.
Damian Lillard showed up in Orlando with one goal. He was determined to stay in the bubble for an extended period, not only for the two weeks of seeding games. At times, it’s looked like Dame carried his team to victory by his determination to win.
He has been a force of nature the past seven games, averaging 37.0 points, 9.3 assists, 4.4 rebounds per game. Lillard became the first player Portland Trail Blazers history to score 50 or more in back-to-back games. It hasn’t been entirely a one-man show. CJ McCollum (19.4, 5.0, 5.6), Jusuf Nurkic (17.3, 4.1, 10.3), and sharpshooter Gary Trent Jr. (17.0, 1.4, 1.6) have also performed well.
The other player who stands out is Carmelo Anthony. In the bubble, he’s played like vintage Melo (17.6, 0.7, 6.9). When the Blazers get cold from three-point range, he’s been able to take his man to the low-post and nail a clutch shot.
After defeating Dallas on Tuesday night, Lillard was interviewed on the court. He said Thursday’s matchup for the Trail Blazers was the most important game of their careers.
1:00 pm PDT – Dallas vs. Phoenix
1:00 pm PDT – Milwaukee vs. Memphis
3:30 pm PDT – San Antonio vs. Utah
6:00 pm PDT – Portland vs. Brooklyn
Aside from the teams contending for the play-in series, only Houston is playing for a better seed. The other three have locked themselves into their respective playoffs spots.
Do you think the Portland Trail Blazers will claim a spot in the play-in round? If so, will it be as the eighth or ninth-place team in the Western Conference? Let us know in the comments section below or on social media.