Portland Trail Blazers: Not worth it to break up CJ and Dame backcourt
Rob Ryan
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Many Portland Trail Blazers fans point to the team’s lack of playoff success as a reason to break up stars Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. They would be wrong.
One of the biggest questions for the Portland Trail Blazers going into the 2020/21 season was – “Can the Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum backcourt get Portland to the next level?” Since 2015-16 (when CJ became a starter), the Blazers’ backcourt has been highly thought of by analysts and fans. The duo is often ranked a spot or two behind Golden State’s Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.
However, playoff failures have repeatedly led to calls to break up the Lillard/CJ tandem. That requires finding an established “All-Star” to pair with Lillard.
Many people don’t consider that when trading for another star player, especially one that plays a similar position to the player being dealt, stats become consolidated. Usage rates change, shot attempts go down, players sacrifice the stats they once had in exchange for team success.
It’s a sure bet that Lillard isn’t leaving Rip City any time soon. That means McCollum would be the one to go. Not so fast.
Putting up numbers
How many shooting guards average 28.4 points-per-game (PPG) on 47 percent shooting and 38 percent from three-point range while averaging 6.2 assists per game (APG)? If there was a shooting guard available that had similar numbers, would you deal CJ for him?
Well, that player is CJ McCollum. Since CJ became a starter in the 2015-16 season, in the 29 games where Dame didn’t play, those are his stats. It’s hard to say that McCollum could keep those numbers up for an entire season. Keep in mind, McCollum achieved those lofty stats when defenses had to game plan specifically to stop him. When starting without Dame, CJ’s average numbers are right there in PPG, FG%, and 3PT% with star shooting guards Bradley Beal or James Harden.
Comps
After Harden stopped coming off the bench for Oklahoma City and became a starter in Houston, his averages rose to 29.6 PPG on 44 FG% and 36 3PT% point shooting. Over the last four years, Beal’s numbers for Washington aren’t quite that high. He averaged 25.1 PPG, 46.8 FG%, and 37.1 3PT%. Keep in mind the Wizards also had John Wall.
Granted, 29 games of Dame-less CJ are a small sample size. It certainly doesn’t compare to nine seasons of post-OKC James Harden. It is however a relevant enough sample size to get an idea about what CJ would put up if he were the featured guard on another team with a higher usage rate.
We can measure Dame by similar metrics. Looking at his stats since 2015-16 when CJ was inactive, we see similar increases. In 26 games without CJ in the lineup, Dame averaged 30.0 PPG on 45 FG% and 43 3PT% with 8.1 APG.
Portland can’t clone Lillard. Harden recently arrived in Brooklyn. Finally, after Washington traded Wall, Wizards fans would go nuts if they traded Beal. Frankly, there isn’t anyone that would be a better compliment to Dame than CJ McCollom.
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If you were to start a new team and simply look at Dame and CJ’s stats when the other isn’t playing, you would be thinking that this is possibly one of the best offensive backcourts in NBA history.