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Welcome to the college athletics version of Darwinism. Only the strong will survive this latest round of conference realignment. For conferences like the Pac-12, it means they eventually expand or die. A few weeks ago, the dominoes started to fall when Texas and Oklahoma bolted the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference. How the process ends is unknown, but the ripples started already.
In response to the SEC becoming college athletics’ first 16-team superconference, the Big Ten, ACC, and Pac-12 formed an alliance on Tuesday. As of now, there is no immediate effect on college sports, but there will be in the long term. Look for items such as standardizing the number of conference football games and more cross-conference scheduling to be among their agenda.
Even though some around the conference are dragging their heels, Pac-12 expansion is inevitable. The biggest argument against expanding the conference is money. More specifically, carving the money pie into more slices. It’s a short-sighted rejection.
Done the right way, with the right, with the right schools, by the time a new TV contract falls into place, the Pac-12 can plan for it. Besides, any new members could be placed on a ramp-up plan.
If the Pac-12 expands, new schools will have to meet three big standards. Commissioner George Kliavkoff and the CEO group have plenty to consider.
Note – if the money is right, one or two of these items could change.
For one reason or another, these four Big 12 schools don’t work for the Pac -12. Iowa State is far, and they don’t bring the fan base necessary. It would be ridiculous geographically to add West Virginia. Besides, the Mountaineers are likely headed to the ACC.
Baylor and TCU aren’t good philosophical fits. Also, neither fits the criteria of a Tier 1 research institution. Boise State would love to play in a conference with heavyweights, but they don’t match up from an academic or market standpoint.
Rock Chalk Jayhawk!
Kansas is college basketball royalty. They are second to only Kentucky (four behind) in all-time wins. Imagine what it would be like to see an annual UCLA-Kansas hoops matchup. That is television gold.
Football-wise, KU is an also-ran. Actually, that’s a slap in the face of also-rans. The Jayhawks had three winning seasons this century and are 500-635-54 all-time. Maybe in a different conference, their fortunes could change, but it’s hard to fathom.
Speculation about the Jayhawks in the Pac-12 is mostly moot. Reportedly, the Big Ten is interested in KU. It’s a better fit for the school. If not the Big Ten, then the ACC.
The Wildcats are Kansas-lite, without the reputation. Aside from the Bill Snyder era, KSU is a failure.
Also, no one will confuse Manhattan, Kansas, with Manhattan, New York as a media market. Throw in that their home stadium capacity would rank ninth in the current Pac-12; Kansas State doesn’t bring nearly enough to the table.
If K-State gets picked up by a new conference, they are on the buddy plan with KU.
Except for Colorado and Utah, every Pac-12 team has a geographic rival. CSU would be that for the Buffaloes. Otherwise, the Rams are pretty blah as a Pac-12 school. They don’t bring much cache’ with them in athletics. Adding them won’t add many more eyes on TVs. Besides, the Buffs have that market wrapped up.
The Lobos have a loyal and rabid fan base. UNM also does a great job promoting their football program out of their conference. However, they play in a very small stadium (39,000 capacity).
While New Mexico likely helps the Pac-12’s overall conference strength in men’s basketball, their market presence isn’t enough to justify adding them as a full member. They would, however, be an intriguing non-football member. It would be fun to watch New Mexico defend their home court, “The Pit,” against visiting Pac-12 schools.
The University of Nevada is similar to New Mexico. Adding them to the Pac-12 isn’t exactly headline news on the surface. Nevada has plenty of alumni in Las Vegas. Forging a significant presence in the Vegas market is a home run (more on that later).
The Wolf Pack runs a competitive football program in the WAC. McKay Stadium is an issue for football. Nevada will have to expand it from the current 30,000 seats to catch up to the rest of the Pac-12. Then there is the question of filling those new seats, but that’s a discussion for later.
Basketball is also competitive at Nevada. Since 2003-04, the Wolf Pack have won 20 or more games 13 times. Again that’s big for a conference that doesn’t get a ton of respect from the NCAA Selection Committee.
Having the University of Nevada as a non-football member might be a good intro to the Pac-12. Full membership is a bet on the future.
UNLV is an excellent fit for the Pac-12 geographically. Las Vegas is a rapidly growing city and a great media market. As of the 2020 census, Sin City is the 29th ranked media market in the USA, ahead of areas such as Memphis and New Orleans. By 2030, Vegas should be in the top 20.
Another thing Las Vegas has going for it is accessibility. It’s one of the most visited cities in the world. The Pac-12 already plays its football and basketball championships there. Adding UNLV solidifies their presence in the city. Very few would be surprised if the Pac-12 offices relocated to Vegas whether or not UNLV is a member.
As an athletic program, UNLV also adds value. The Running Rebels basketball program is very popular nationally. While football hasn’t made a dent on the national scene, they play home games at Allegiant Stadium. It’s a new domed facility the university shares with the Las Vegas Raiders.
If Brigham Young gets an invite into the Pac-12, there will be riots across several other conference campuses. As a religious-based school, their ideology doesn’t mesh well with the rest of the Pac-12. BYU isn’t a Tier 1 research school either. Finally, the Cougars’ non-football scheduling demands make them a challenge for any conference.
On the positive side, adding Brigham Young as a football-only member would be huge. BYU runs a perennially quality football program. They draw well anywhere they play. It can also be argued that Brigham Young might have the second largest fan base across the United States behind Notre Dame.
The annual Holy War Game against Utah would make for a great end of regular-season finale.
Lubbock, Texas, isn’t exactly a media hub. Critics will say Texas Tech doesn’t add much in terms of growing the Pac-12’s presence. Those people are missing the bigger picture.
By adding TTU, the Pac-12 gets a foothold in Texas. The Lone Star State might be the most fertile recruiting ground in college football. Look at what adding Texas A&M did for the overall talent in the SEC.
Texas Tech has a current enrollment of over 36,000 students. When those students graduate, they go to cities such as Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. The Red Raiders also fill Jones AT&T Stadium to capacity (60,000+) on football Saturdays. In 2010, the Sporting News said it was the biggest home-field advantage in college football. If Texas Tech is playing, people are watching.
In the grand scheme of things, OSU brings very little in growing the conference. Like Kansas State, Oklahoma State is located in a small city (Stillwater, Ok) with a small media footprint. Additionally, they will always be seen as the “little brother” to NCAA powerhouse Oklahoma.
Putting that aside the Cowboys have quite a bit of cache’ athletically. OSU is a staple in both the football and basketball polls. They are also a college baseball power. Oklahoma State baseball would be another reason to watch the Pac-12 Network in the spring.
If Texas Tech comes in, they need a geographic partner. Oklahoma State fits best as a Pac-12 member than any other former Big 12 school.
Ideally, the Pac-12 expands to 16 teams. From a football standpoint adding Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, UNLV, and Brigham Young (football only) bring the most value. For the rest of the sports, either New Mexico or Nevada works best to balance out the conference.
There would likely be strong resistance to BYU despite any boost the conference gets financially and competitively. In that case, the Pac-12 can make a move similar to when they added Arizona and Arizona State in 1978.
What schools do you think are good candidates to join the Pac-12? Let us know in the comments section below or on social media.