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The landscape of big-time college athletics is like the Wild West right now, anything goes. Rule 1 is there are no rules. Money is changing hands rapidly and the NCAA has no way to track what’s clean and what isn’t. And they don’t want to, as evidenced by two recent events.
First, the NCAA passed a new constitution in January, letting each Division govern itself. Instead of running everything, the “new” NCAA will put on championships and negotiate broadcast deals.
I have no love for how the NCAA ran college athletics. They were arbitrary, inconsistent, and hypocritical. But someone has to be in charge to level the competitive playing field.
Dr. Mark Emmert, President of the NCAA saw the handwriting on the wall and bailed. He won’t be the captain who goes down with his ship, Emmert more like the rat that scurried off of it. His stewardship of college athletics was and is shameful. But he’ll be gone in June. In other words, the sheriff is dead and outlaws run the town.
Before the NCAA ship sinks, the Pac-12 will go first. It’s a shame that an entity that for so long was an integral part of college sports will suffer through a horrible death.
Trying to get 12 college administrations to agree on anything is like herding cats. But these cats are of varied size and ferocity. Some are kittens and others are lions.
Some Pac-12 schools can and will adapt to a changing landscape such as Oregon, Washington, and USC,. Then, there are other schools like Stanford, Cal, and UCLA that will firmly plant their feet and resist. The dichotomy will rip the conference apart.
Let’s get specific, there are several reasons why the Pac-12 precedes the NCAA in death.
The Pac-12 can’t financially compete with the SEC, Big Ten, and probably ACC. Their existing television deals in addition to the anchor that is the Pac-12 Network are dragging them further behind by the year.
It’s only going to get worse. Pac-12 fans have heard ad nauseam that things will change once the conference signs its next set of national television contracts. There are estimates that the new deals could earn the conference $600M annually or $50M per school.
They are being sold a big lie. According to a study done by Navigate, In the year 2028, Pac-12 schools will get approximately $56.5M each. That is slightly above the ACC and Big-12. In contrast, Big Ten members can expect a $94.5M payout and SEC schools will cash checks worth $105.3M. That’s close to double what Pac-12 schools will earn.
Then there is “the red,” better known as operating deficits.
Athletic departments at two conference schools, Washington State and Oregon State are hemorrhaging money. According to Sportico, WSU lost $25M and OSU lost just north of $21M in 2020-21. Even the big boys can lose money.
For example, Texas lost about $8M but that was 4.9 percent of its operating budget. In contrast, Wazzu’s loss was 38.4 percent of its operating budget. To add to the Cougars’ depression, their $40M revenue is below the University of North Texas, a Conference USA school that brought in $46.7M
How much longer can the University sink money into a failing program? Then how soon will it be before Cal and Stanford decide that their ivory tower notions of the student-athlete won’t work anymore, they cant make money with their model and get out of the fast lane?
College football is the motor, that powers an athletic department. Without the money football brings in, there is no track, rowing, volleyball, swimming, or any of the other so-called Olympic sports.
According to 24/7 Sports, only Washington (19th – $92M), USC (18th – $93M), and Oregon (T15th – 98M) rank among college football’s 25 most valuable programs. The top ten were all SEC, moving to the SEC, or Big Ten schools.
When the NCAA lost its Name, Image, and Likeness battle in the Supreme Court, it completely unrivaled the fabric of major college athletics. Most every sports fan will agree that if a school can make money off a student-athlete, the players should be able to make money off their name.
What seemed like a noble idea at first has turned into a cesspool. Consortiums of boosters pool their money and basically buy players for their respective schools. Already at a financial disadvantage, NIL puts Pac-12 schools at a recruiting disadvantage as well.
Tuscaloosa, Alabama; College Station, Texas, and Ann Arbor, Michigan aren’t major metropolises. But there is enough money around the Bama, A&M, and Michigan programs to entice prospects with NIL money.
There isn’t the same support system in Pullman, Washington, and Corvallis, Oregon. Whether the boosters in Northern California can or even want to compete with the Ohio State’s of the country is debatable. But the fact is more high school prospects from within the Pac-12 footprint are leaving for other conferences and schools because they have more opportunities to cash in.
Top football coaches like Nick Saban (Alabama) and Dabo Swinney (Clemson) have publicly come out and said the NIL system is broken. And they are benefitting more than most. When conference commissioners like Greg Sankey (SEC) and George Kliavkoff (Pac-12) unite to lobby congress for regulation, it signals that the Grim Reaper has his scythe at the ready to cut down the NCAA.
The State of California is about to put the final nail in the Pac-12’s coffin. Senate Bill 1401, if passed allows athletes in profitable sports to get paid by their athletic department. It’s money that directly comes from the same budget that funds money-losing Olympic sports.
Then there are Title IX issues. Football makes money, women’s volleyball doesn’t. Paying male athletes in one sport but not female athletes in another is in violation of Title IX, which means if a California school wants to compete at the highest levels in football or basketball, they’ll have to pay members of the women’s lacrosse team.
Maybe USC can stay afloat under those conditions. More than likely Cal, Stanford, and UCLA can’t. Since there won’t be as much money available, sports like wrestling, men’s lacrosse, and maybe even baseball could get the budget ax by their respective institutions.
There is no way the Pac-12 can continue losing ground to the big boys at the rate it’s happening. If fans thought the last round of conference realignment was crazy, it will be nothing next to the next major shakeout.
The bigger and less regulated Pac-12 schools, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, and possibly USC will break away and merge with recently re-aligned Big-12 schools to form a new conference. Joining the Pac-12 breakaways would be Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and if they are smart Brigham Young.
Meanwhile, Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, and UCLA are left to form a new conference. One without any of the cache’ they once had.