Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (photo by Mike Tigas, via Flickr).
Let’s pretend for a second that Major League Baseball was in my hands. If it were, there would be several things that I would change. This series reverses, introduces, and expands on changes happening to major league baseball and allows us to examine the impacts of those changes.
Today’s edition discusses improving offense by watering down pitching through expansion. Let’s start by establishing why this needs to happen.
After MLB expanded to 24 teams in 1969, the game league had a nice balance of 12 teams in each league. However, in 1976, the runs per game in the majors was 3.99. It was the conclusion of a run on seasons over the previous decade where a majority of them resulted in sub-4 runs per game. In 1977, runs were scored at a 4.47 per game clip which was the highest in 15 years.
This increase was a direct result of adding the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays, which expanded the league to 26 teams. In fact, Major League Baseball hasn’t been below four runs per game since 1976.
From 1988 through 1992, Major League Baseball suffered another runs-per-game shortage averaging just under 4.2 runs per game, which was the lowest since the mid-70s. After the Colorado/Miami expansion in 1993, runs scored rose to a 4.60 clip, the highest since 1952. This feat was accomplished without increasing home runs, and the league’s overall batting average of .265 was the highest since 1980.
While the runs increased after the strike-shortened seasons of 1994 and 1995 can also be attributed to the prevalence of performance-enhancing drugs, it’s hard to argue against expansion also playing a role.
Doubling down on expansion, then-commissioner Bud Selig put the plan in place to expand the league. While it’s hard to attribute any increase in run production to this particular expansion, there wasn’t a downturn in productivity, either. However, it did allow for sustained run-producing success for the better part of the next decade.
The offensive output was so impressive that in 1999, major league baseball batted .271, the highest since 1939. MLB maintained at least a .260 average from 1993 through 2009.
Runs-per-game has declined steeply since 2019, and the 2021 league batting average of .236 is the lowest in history, beating the previous low of 237 in 1968. A season that led to MLB lowering the pitcher’s mound by five inches.
Big League hitters struggled mightily at the beginning of last season. The pitchers were far ahead of their counterparts at the plate, and fans complained about boring games. For a palpable uptick in offense, MLB resorted to frisking pitchers for illegal substances, which worked to a point but
Based on the analysis above, we absolutely must expand to improve hitting as a .236 batting average doesn’t make for entertaining baseball. Not only that, but MLB should expand to make each league 16 teams. Further, they expand the current playoff format and make for better regionalization of baseball. So, the answer to this question is yes.
With the Oakland Athletics possibly on the move, we will talk about three possible locations. One for the A’s and two new expansion franchises. First, if the A’s leave the Bay Area, they should relocate to Las Vegas to re-join their NFL counterparts. There is also talk of Portland, Oregon, as well as other locations. However, the one that makes the most sense for them is Las Vegas.
For the two new franchises, the locations to consider are New Orleans, Memphis, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Portland, San Antonio, and Indianapolis.
Memphis/Nashville both own significant sports franchises, and a baseball team in either of these cities would thrive. Geographically, Memphis would be close to St. Louis and could overlap their fan base. Nashville’s nearest MLB team would be either the Reds or the Cardinals, but is a better split between the two, potentially.
New Orleans is a geographical wasteland for Major League Baseball. N’awlins has multiple major sports franchises, and the passionate fans show great support for both teams. The next closest Big League team is either Houston or Tampa Bay, but fans in Louisiana aren’t committed to either and would gravitate to a new MLB team in the Crescent City.
Las Vegas is the first-choice destination for the Oakland Athletics should they fail to get a new stadium. If Oakland comes through and can keep the team, then expansion to Las Vegas makes sense.
Sin City already has two major sports franchises, and it hosts the NBA summer league making Vegas a high-priority city for expansion. While Las Vegas encroaches somewhat into Diamondbacks territory, the city is known as more of a Dodgers town.
Portland is a major city that would benefit greatly from another professional sports team. A team based in the Rose City creates a fantastic geographical rivalry with the Seattle Mariners.
That redundancy might not be financially responsible for either franchise, as adding a team in Portland cannibalizes the M’s fanbase.
Another argument against Portland getting an expansion baseball team is sustaining multiple major franchises of the same sport in the Pacific Northwest hasn’t worked so far.
San Antonio is the most populated city in the United States without a professional baseball team within 200 miles of its city limits. Texas has only two baseball teams, despite being the second most populated state in the country. In addition, the third-most Major League players come from Texas. Adding a franchise in the Lone Star State would also create the potential for better geographical rivalries.
Indianapolis/Louisville, either of these cities, would do well as home to an MLB team. Indiana and Kentucky are both absent from the Major League Baseball conversation despite teams all around these states. The rust belt has the most Major League franchises geographically, with eight teams in the areas surrounding Indianapolis and Louisville.
Charlotte should be considered for expansion based on geographical separation from other MLB cities. It’s a fast-growing metropolitan area and home to multiple professional sports franchises. The closest major league city would be Atlanta and wouldn’t really eat into a passionate fan base.
With 32 teams, MLB is likely to break into four divisions of four teams in each league. This is what I would do if I were the commissioner:
American League
East – Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles
North – Twins, White Sox, Tigers, and Guardians
South – Rays, Charlotte (Expansion), Houston, and Dallas
West – Seattle, Las Vegas (Relocation of Athletics), Angels, and Rockies (from the NL)
National League
East – Mets, Phillies, Nationals, and Pirates
North – Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, and Royals (from the AL)
South – Reds, Marlins, Braves, and New Orleans (Expansion)
West – Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants
This plan doesn’t mess with rivalries too much and seems to make the most geographic sense. What are your thoughts? Do you think MLB should expand? If so, what are the two locations you think are the best for MLB expansion?
Joe Swenson is a lifelong fan of all things baseball and wrote the play “Just Three More Outs” do out to residency in September 2021.