Fixing Baseball: MLB must focus on productive contact over power
In 2021 strikeouts are up and batting averages are down. It’s a big problem for MLB. There is a fix, and it has to do with fundamentals.
This season has already produced 6 (maybe 7) no-hitters. Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw expressed his disdain for Manfred tinkering with the weight of the ball and the thickness of the laces. He’s not the only one. Fans have taken to social media about the lack of offense around the league. While one of the easy fixes would be to put the ball back to the previous weight, another fix would be for batters to adjust.
MLB made a quick fix. They searched and penalized pitchers with a suspension for using illegal substances on the ball. It’s worked for now, but eventually, pitchers will gain ground.
Over the last five years, the priority has been launch angle and exit velocity, and home runs went flying out of parks to the tune of nearly 6800 in 2019. To fix baseball, MLB might need to take an evolutionary step back rather than a step forward.
The Facts
Major League Baseball is batting .242 in 2021, down 3 points from last season’s .245 clip, which was the lowest since the 1960s. The Reds batted .212 in 2020 that’s only 5 points higher than the overall record low of .207 set in 1888.
At one point this season, the M’s were batting .198 and were on pace to destroy the record for the lowest batting average. They are up to .222 but tied for the worst batting average in the Majors with their division foe, the Rangers.
Strikeout rates continue to get higher and higher. In 1980, 14.0 percent of at-bats resulted in a strikeout. In 1990 it was 16.7 percent, 2000 – 18.7 percent, 2010 – 20.75 percent. The rate of acceleration in strikeouts was 2 percent every 10 years.
By 2020, if the trajectory continued, then maybe it would be 22.7 percent. Instead, the K rate last year was 26.4 percent. In fact, since 2017, there’s been an increase of 0.6 – 0.8 percent every year. 2021 K rate is sitting at 27.15 percent.
The Opinion
There’s a perfect storm of non-productive offensive behaviors that have contributed to the current lack of offense. Higher velocity, more reliance on high spin-rate pitches, defensive shifts, a heavier baseball, emphasis on launch angle, etc. Something has to give at this point, or baseball is doomed to experience something that hasn’t happened since 1968, a sub .240 overall season average.
The answer is to put a premium on contact. If you look at the runs scored on average per game, they have gone down steadily over the last three seasons. From 2019 to 2021, there is a drop of over half a run per game. At some point, coaches must understand that focusing on the three true outcomes (home run, walk, and strikeout) is no longer the approach to score runs. Instead, productive contact should be prioritized.
Final Thoughts
Moving runners along, putting players in scoring positions based on productive contact is a fundamental strategy of baseball that has become the exception. The ripple effect of productive contact is pressure on pitchers, turning over the line-up faster, and beating shifts. This change will also result in more runs scored. The teams that make this adjustment will be in better shape to make a run to the playoffs.
Looking at this season’s top two offensive teams, Toronto and Houston, there are important similarities. They strikeout the least, have the highest batting average and score the most runs.
Those teams prove that scoring runs come from better, more productive contact. The Astros have done this better than anyone else this season. They are batting .266, with a strikeout rate of 22.3% (4.1 percent below league average). In addition, they are eighth in home runs, fourth in doubles, and first in runs scored.
Houston also leads the league in sacrifice flies. Teams that put a premium on productive contact are winning more than losing. That strategy also makes for a better baseball product.
Joe Swenson is a lifelong Seattle Sports fan, awarding-winning playwright, author, director, and producer.